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Integrating Scientific Creativity, Logic, and Chance in Research Traditions

This work explores the integration of product, personal, and process research traditions in science. Focusing on the metasciences, it delves into the history, philosophy, sociology, and psychology of science. It examines the creative processes of scientists, the behavioral aspects of scientific products, and the significance of publications in scientific communities. The analysis covers individual variation in scientific output, including Lotka's and Price's laws, and the dynamics of multiple discoveries and participation in research. With insights into the cognitive and combinatorial models of creativity, it highlights the intricate balance between randomness and logic in scientific discovery.

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Integrating Scientific Creativity, Logic, and Chance in Research Traditions

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  1. Scientific Creativity, Logic, and Chance: The Integration of Product, Person, and Process Research Traditions

  2. Introduction • The Metasciences • History of Science • Philosophy of Science • Sociology of Science • Psychology of Science

  3. The Two Psychologies of Science • Experimental • The Process of Scientific Discovery • Creativity as Logical Problem Solving • Correlational • The Person of the Creative Scientist • Creativity as Personal Attribute

  4. Potential Integration? • Third Point of Attack • The Product • Behavioral rather than Experimental or Psychometric • in vivo rather than in vitro (Dunbar)

  5. Creative Products • Scientific Careers: • Publications • Scientific Communities: • Multiples

  6. Publications • Individual Variation • Longitudinal Change

  7. Individual Variation • Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution

  8. Individual Variation • Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution • Lotka’s Law

  9. Individual Variation • Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution • Lotka’s Law • Price’s Law

  10. Individual Variation • Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution • Lotka’s Law • Price’s Law • Quantity-Quality Relation

  11. Individual Variation • Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution • Lotka’s Law • Price’s Law • Quantity-Quality Relation • Mass Producers and Perfectionists?

  12. Individual Variation • Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution • Lotka’s Law • Price’s Law • Quantity-Quality Relation • Mass Producers and Perfectionists? • No … the Equal-Odds Rule • Continuum Connecting the Silent and the Prolific

  13. Longitudinal Change • Randomness of Career-Wise Output • No “runs” • Poisson Distribution • Quantity-Quality Relation • Random Fluctuation Around Quality Ratio Baseline • Hence, the Equal-Odds Rule

  14. Multiples • Distribution of Multiple Grades

  15. Multiples • Distribution of Multiple Grades • Temporal Separation of Multiple Discoveries

  16. Multiples • Distribution of Multiple Grades • Temporal Separation of Multiple Discoveries • Individual Variation in Multiple Participation

  17. Multiples • Distribution of Multiple Grades • Temporal Separation of Multiple Discoveries • Individual Variation in Multiple Participation • Degree of Multiple Identity

  18. Combinatorial Processes • Definitions • Assumptions • Implications • Elaboration • Objections

  19. Definitions • Individual • Domain • Field

  20. Assumptions • Individual Samples from Domain Ideas

  21. Assumptions • Individual Samples from Domain Ideas • Within-Field Variation in Sample Size

  22. Assumptions • Individual Samples from Domain Ideas • Within-Field Variation in Sample Size • Quasi-Random Combination of Ideas

  23. Assumptions • Individual Samples from Domain Ideas • Within-Field Variation in Sample Size • Quasi-Random Combination of Ideas • Variation in Quality of Combinations

  24. Assumptions • Individual Samples from Domain Ideas • Within-Field Variation in Sample Size • Quasi-Random Combination of Ideas • Variation in Quality of Combinations • Variation in Size of Fields

  25. Assumptions • Individual Samples from Domain Ideas • Within-Field Variation in Sample Size • Quasi-Random Combination of Ideas • Variation in Quality of Combinations • Variation in Size of Fields • Communication of Ideational Combinations

  26. Implications • Research Publications • Cross-sectional Variation • Longitudinal Change • Multiple Discoveries • Multiple Grades

  27. Implications • Research Publications • Cross-sectional Variation • Longitudinal Change • Multiple Discoveries • Multiple Grades • Temporal Separation

  28. Implications • Research Publications • Cross-sectional Variation • Longitudinal Change • Multiple Discoveries • Multiple Grades • Temporal Separation • Multiples Participation

  29. Implications • Research Publications • Cross-sectional Variation • Longitudinal Change • Multiple Discoveries • Multiple Grades • Temporal Separation • Multiples Participation • Multiple Identity

  30. Elaboration • Aggregated Data on Career Output • Aggregated Across Time Units • Aggregated Across Scientists • Cognitive Combinatorial Model • Longitudinal Submodel • Individual-Differences Submodel • Integrated Model

  31. Objections • Alternative Explanations? • Multiplicative Models? • Cumulative Advantage? • Explanatory Limitations? • Too Abstract? • Yes, so ...

  32. Scientific Activity • Individuals: Research Programs • Fields: Peer Review • Domains: Disciplinary Zeitgeist

  33. Individuals: Research Programs • The Features of High-Impact Programs • Repercussions of those Features

  34. The Features of High-Impact Programs • Multiple Projects • Network of Enterprises (Gruber) • Variability in Nature of Projects

  35. Projects Vary According to ... • Research Topic • Degree of Risk • Intrinsic Importance • Programmatic Relevance • Amount of Progress • Type of Research • Current Degree of Effort

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