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Dirk Stelder University of Groningen regroningen.nl/stelder

Regional Accessibility in Europe The Impact of Transport Infrastructure 1957 - 2012. Dirk Stelder University of Groningen www.regroningen.nl/stelder. Joint work with Faculty of Spatial Sciences: Peter Groote, Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder Background Construction

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Dirk Stelder University of Groningen regroningen.nl/stelder

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  1. Regional Accessibility in Europe The Impact of Transport Infrastructure 1957 - 2012 Dirk StelderUniversity of Groningenwww.regroningen.nl/stelder

  2. Joint work with Faculty of Spatial Sciences: Peter Groote, Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder • Background • Construction • Accessibility concepts • Results

  3. Background • Accessibility and economic growth • Transport costs and regional competitiveness • (pre)-evaluation of infrastructure investment • EU Cohesion Policy: 50% spent on infrastructure projects (Crescenzi & Rodríguez-Pose, 2008). • EU research funding: evaluation tools and models of infrastructure policy assessment • IASON (Tavassy, 2004) • SASI (Spiekermann & Wegener, 2008) • HERMIN (Bradley, J. & G. Untiedt, 2012) • TRANSTOOLS (Ibanez-Rivas, 2010) • QUEST (Varga & in ‘t Veld, 2011) • RHOMOLO (Brandsma et. al., 2013)

  4. Background Need for • indirect effects and network externalities OECD (2002) • externalities and market potential Ottaviano (2008) • Not captured by CBA, macro production functions or spatial stand-alone indicators • qualified network data on Dijover time (not crow-fly distance) • ex post studies Empirical literature • to a large extent ex ante, if ex post, on specific project evaluations • TGV, Great Belt Bridge, Chunnel Network datasets • Trains: some time series • Roads: only today

  5. Background Dijon (road) networks is wordwide free available • Googlemaps, route planners etc. • Academic relevance limited: the implicit network is a black box, no alternative cost specifications Only today • Navigation/mapping companies have no interest in keeping outdated networks online • Historical digital network archives scarce • Even printed road maps are scarcely archived: try to find a road map of 2000 Reverse data problem • In stead of time series with publication time lags for recent years we have information for today without time series • We know the travel time between Amsterdam and Berlin now but not for last year, 2000 or 1990

  6. Background EU project 2012-2013 financed by DG Regio/Eurostat • University of Groningen • Faculty of Economics and Business • Faculty of Spatial Sciences • Built digital road networks for 1955, 1970 ,1980, 1990, 2000, 2012 • Open source • free available • open to user (re)coding • Database online September 2013

  7. Construction • Digital scanning of historical road maps • (re) build historical routeplanners • Coverage European continent • Minimum 4 road classifications • Minimum scale 1: 1.250:0000 • Consistency over time • coverage • detail • downgrading

  8. 1957 1956 1: 2.500.000 1957 1: 2.500.000

  9. 1970 1: 3.000.000 1970 1970 1: 1.000.000

  10. 1980 – 2000 1: 3.000.000 1980 - 2000 1980 – 2000 1: 1.000.000

  11. 2012 2012 1: 800.000

  12. Accessibility concepts “relative nearness or proximity of one place or person to all other places and persons” Hansen (1959) A function f(a,b) with a being the activity to be reached elsewhere and b indicating the costs to reach that activity (1) Ai (t) = ∑j Pj (t) Dij(t)-βReilly (1931) Other specifications like negative exponential e-β Dijnot used because of scale dependencies to Dij Spatial dimension i = cities > 50.000 Internal distance Dii set to average distance (O/)/2between two agents inside a circle with radius r

  13. Accessibility concepts Relative accessibility (2)ai (t)= Ai (t) / ∑j Aj (t) • Eliminates data heterogeneity over time • A hypothetical system-wide homogenous improvement in infrastructure Dij(t) = λDij(t-1) with λ < 1leads to no change in ai • Network effects only; no general trends in transport costs • (neo)classical competition: equilibrium may not change, no effect spatial policy • Monopolistic competition: equilibrium may shift towards agglomeration/dispersion Change in relative accessibility (3)αi (t) = ai (t) / ai (t-1)

  14. Accessibility concepts Network accessibility (4) Ni =∑j ≠ i Dij (5) ni = ∑j Nj / Ni (6) νi (t) = ni (t) / ni (t-1) Pure unweighted network effects without potential

  15. Coding

  16. Results

  17. Results

  18. Ranking of countries by accessibility change 1970 - 2012

  19. Concluding Historical archives of networks need policy support Enable ex post studies Open source essential Backward updating and improvement

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