137 E. Franklin Street, 6th floor ● Campus Box 6116 ● Chapel Hill, NC 27599-6116

1. 137 E. Franklin Street, 6th floor ● Campus Box 6116 ● Chapel Hill, NC 27599-6116

2. Sustainable Community Design Energy & the Environment Landscape Change & Health The UNC Institute for the Environment focuses its research and engagement on four critical issues that lie at the heart of global environmental challenges . . . Environmental Modeling

3. The UNC Institute for the Environment conducts its environmental modeling work within the Center for Environmental Modeling for Policy Development (CEMPD)– a group of 20 scientists and engineers with a long history working with EPA CEMPD Expertise Air Quality Modeling Modeling Tool Development Meteorological Modeling Regulatory Support Emissions Modeling Data Analysis To learn more about CEMPD, visit us on the web at: http://www.ie.unc.edu/cempd

4. Ambient, Met, and AQ Data Analysis • Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (AMET) • Integrating AMET-AQ and AMET-Met to create a unified approach for evaluating met and AQ model results • Creating installation package, user interface, and documentation • Air Quality and Emissions Model Performance Evaluation • Developing tools to process and create netCDF files of aerometric and emissions data • Create an extensive set of model evaluation tools for annual model evaluation of CMAQ with O3, PM and Air Toxics, against various observed networks • Create tools to visualize AERMOD outputs with PAVE • National Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (NUDAPT) • Hosting an emerging collection of high-resolution 3-d • building and land use data for urban modeling • Sponsors • EPA, FAA and Others

5. Ambient, Met, and AQ Data Analysis Effects of Climate Change on Human Health • Overview • An observational and modeling study • to examine the interrelationships • among: • Changes in climate • Air pollution • Heat and cold morbidity • Classification of weather patterns • Figure shows percentage rise • in asthma-related hospital • admissions • Sponsor • EPA

6. Air Quality Modeling CEMPD investigates the scientific issues involved with simulating air quality through the development, evaluation, and application of air quality modeling systems at urban, regional and global scales. • Projects related to air quality modeling include: • Air Quality Impacts of Aviation Emissions • Radiative Feedback of Aerosols • CMAQ Coarse-mode Chemistry Algorithms • Effects of Climate Change on Human Health • Integrated Meteorology-Chemistry Modeling

7. Air Quality Modeling Air Quality Impacts of Aviation Emissions • Overview • Multiscale annual CMAQ simulations to • assess incremental effects of aviation • emissions on O3, PM and Air Toxics near • airports • Comparative evaluation of AERMOD driven • by MM5 and NWS meteorology • Compare CMAQ and AERMOD outputs • Explore alternate hybrid modeling • techniques • Develop PM Response Surface Model • (PM-RSM) for aviation emissions • Data transfer to multiple institutions • Sponsors • Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) • NASA FAA/NASA/TC Center of Excellence

8. Air Quality Modeling CMAQ Photolysis Module • Overview • New on-line photolysis module includes effect of • primary and secondary aerosols predicted by CMAQ • Cloud effects on photolysis calculated on-line • Calculates single scattering albedo for vertical column • to compare with satellite data • Overview • Direct radiative aerosol feedbacks in WRF/CMAQ • Develop a software module to estimate the optical and • radiative properties of CMAQ simulated aerosol fields • Develop a scheme to facilitate the direct aerosol • feedback to the WRF shortwave radiation module • Sponsor • EPA Coupled Met/Chem WRF/CMAQ

9. Air Quality Modeling Variable Grid Modeling • Overview • Natural transport of plumes across • multiple grid resolutions • Avoids nesting • Single domain can cover many • resolutions • One model run • Figure shows partial modeling • domain over North Carolina • Sponsor • DOE

10. Air Quality Modeling Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants • Overview • Examine processes associated with cross-Pacific and • cross-Atlantic pollutant transport • Annual simulations and analyses of meteorology and • emissions • Figure shows an ozone episode during April 1998 • Sponsor • EPA

11. Air Quality Modeling NO3- NH4+ SO42- Na+ Cl- H2O Soil, Other HNO3 EC NO3- NH4+ SO4= Na+ Cl- H2O NH3 POA SOAa SOAb H2SO4 Other HCl H2O • Developed algorithms to be included in next CMAQ release for chemistry of coarse particles • New species and interactions shown inRED SVOCs • Sponsor • EPA 2 FINE MODES COARSE MODE

12. Integrated Modeling Air Quality and Climate Interactions • Overview • We developed and applied a coupled meteorology-chemistry model to study air quality impacts on climate; evaluating with long-term aerosol measurements over North America • Impacts of A1B and B1 IPCC emissions scenarios for 2030 are being examined over South Asia • The model is being linked to a forest growth model and fire simulator to examine climate change, forest biomass loads, fire emissions and aerosol carbon over the southeastern U.S. • Sponsors NSF, EPA Modeled Aerosol Optical Depths

13. Meteorological Modeling Prognostic snow model in WRF • Overview • Develop a prognostic snow model in the Pleim/Xiu Land Surface Model within WRF • The snow model has only one layer of snow cover and simulates the snow accumulation, sublimation, melting, and heat exchange at snow–atmosphere and snow–soil interfaces • Sponsor • EPA • Air Quality Forecast Support • Overview • Review/optimize AQ forecast system using MM5 and WRF over Korea - Reduced MM5 runtimes by 50% using appropriate MPI settings • Sponsor • Korea Institute of Science and Technology

14. Emissions Inventory Modeling CEMPD is a leader in emissions data preparation for air quality modeling. As the primary developer of the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model, CEMPD has been advancing emissions software and modeling concepts for over a decade. • Projects related to emissions inventory modeling include • Determining the causes of regional haze • and acid deposition • Air quality impacts of aviation emissions

15. Emissions Inventory Modeling Determining the Causes of Regional Haze and Acid Deposition • Overview • Regional haze modeling of the western U.S. • Conducting multiple annual base-and future- • year emissions simulations • Regional haze SIP development • 2006 base year modeling for the Rocky • Mountain Atmospheric Nitrogen and Sulfur • (RoMANS) study • Sponsors • Western Governors’ Association • National Park Service

16. Emissions Inventory Modeling Air Quality Impacts of Aviation Emissions • Overview • Develop new SMOKE interface to process • high-resolution airport-level emissions • estimates from FAA’s EDMS, that vary in 4-D • Develop custom temporal profiles from a few • airports to 325 U.S. airports • Process integrated CAP+HAP annual • inventories • Compare NEI and EDMS-based estimates • Development of in-flight aircraft emissions • inventories for SMOKE/CMAQ modeling • Sponsors • Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) • NASA

17. UNC Computing Resources • Compute Servers • Topsail – 4,000+ 2.3 GHz EM64T CPUs • 28.7 Teraflops capacity, ranks 34th in Top 500 • Emerald – 320 mixed CPUs (Xeon and Athlon) • 439.3 Gigaflops capacity • Cedar/Cypress – 136 Itanium2 CPUs • Data Storage • 39 Tb of shared scratch space • Mass Storage – IBMTS3500 tape library, scalable Petabyte long-term storage, with dual backup • Provides data access in near real-time

18. Documentation and Tech Transfer • Overview • Developing and providing documentation, • support, and distribution for several • modeling, decision support, and analysis • tools • Globally renowned training program for • emissions and air quality modeling • Host of the CMAS Center • Supported Tools • SMOKE • CMAQ/MCIP • BenMAP • VERDI www.cmaq-model.org www.smoke-model.org

19. Outreach Community Modeling and Analysis System (CMAS) • Training and Conferences • SMOKE, CMAQ, EMF, and WRF • hands-on trainings • New Process Analyses Training • Classes offered at UNC and on-site at • any location, worldwide • Annual conference highlighting • developments and applications of • atmospheric modeling • Visiting scientist program for • collaborative training with the CMAS • Center July ‘06 SMOKE training for INEMexico City, Mexico August ‘07 CMAS-NATO Workshop Bulgarian Academy of SciencesSofia, Bulgaria

20. Modeling Tool Development CEMPD software engineers have developed many models and software tools that support environmental modeling. Using a team approach to software design and engineering, we focus on improving the modeling process by facilitating the automation of modeling studies and by developing tools for the generation and use of metadata during model application studies. • Projects related to software design include: • Emissions Modeling Framework • Control Strategy Tool (CoST) • Spatial Allocator • Surrogate Tool

21. Modeling Tool Development Emissions Modeling Framework • Overview • A system to better manage emissions • modeling data • Changes to datasets are tracked and • versioned in a database; any version can • be retrieved at any time • Quality assurance steps can be run and • tracked • “Case manager” provides a graphical • user interface to run SMOKE and other • models • Embedded Control Strategy Tool (CoST) • develops controlled inventories using • available control measures • Sponsor • EPA

22. Modeling Tool Development • Spatial Allocator • Overview • Converts BELD3 land use data to SMOKE inputs • Changes data on one grid to another grid • Point-to-grid, projection, and datum conversion • Spatial data overlay and Shapefile filtering • Surrogate Tool • Overview • Part of the Emissions Modeling Framework • Creates SMOKE surrogates from Shapefile • attributes (e.g., population) • Merges precomputed surrogates • Gapfills surrogates to prevent dropping of emissions • Sponsor • EPA 1km data converted to 4km data Sample Surrogate Tool output

23. Decision Support Hurricane Storm-Surge Prediction • Overview • Real-time storm-surge prediction system • created for the State of North Carolina • Uses WRF numerical weather prediction • model + ADCIRC coastal ocean prediction • model • Assists with evacuation planning, decision- • making and resource deployment • Sponsors • FEMA • State of North Carolina • RENCI Storm-surge simulation of Tropical Storm Ernesto

24. Center for Environmental Modeling for Policy Development Contact Information: Adel Hanna Director of CEMPD ahanna@unc.edu Alison Eyth Contract Program Manager eyth@unc.edu Sarav Arunachalam Senior Air Quality Modeler sarav@unc.edu Zac Adelman Senior Emissions Modeler zac@unc.edu Additional contact information: http://www.ie.unc.edu/cempd/staff.cfm 137 E. Franklin Street, 6th floor ● Campus Box 6116 ● Chapel Hill, NC 27599-6116