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Climate change : A research Agenda Camilla Toulmin IIED Dublin November 10 th 2011

Climate change : A research Agenda Camilla Toulmin IIED Dublin November 10 th 2011. IIED: Thumbnail sketch. Established 1971 Non-profit policy “think and do” tank Mission: to build a fairer, more sustainable world, using evidence, action and influence in partnership with others

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Climate change : A research Agenda Camilla Toulmin IIED Dublin November 10 th 2011

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  1. Climate change : A research Agenda Camilla Toulmin IIED Dublin November 10th 2011

  2. IIED: Thumbnail sketch • Established 1971 • Non-profit policy “think and do” tank • Mission: to build a fairer, more sustainable world, using evidence, action and influence in partnership with others • 90+ people London and Edinburgh • Turnover 2011 £20m

  3. What we know about climate change • CO2 in atmosphere rising faster than anticipated by IPCC • Warming of climate system • Systematic change in rainfall in most regions • Ocean temperatures up + sea level rise • Loss of arctic sea ice extent • More intense & extreme weather events

  4. Africa - Water and rainfall • Much more intense water cycle • Dry areas increasingly drought prone (Northern and Southern Africa) • Increased rainfall + greater flood risk (East Africa) • Uncertain rainfall trends West Africa • Effects on health, livelihoods, water security – women and girls worst hit • Conflicts and trade-offs: shared river basins, hydro vs irrigation, herding vs farming, urban water transfers • By 2020, >250m will suffer increased w stress

  5. HADLEY 10

  6. Africa - Food and farming • Projected reductions in crop yields in dry areas of 50% by 2020 • Low lying coastal agriculture at risk from sea-water flooding and salinisation • Shifts in grazing lands, livestock disease, crop-livestock relations • In very few areas, increased temp brings longer growing season, improved farming conditions • Major shifts in land productivity and values eg. irrigated land in dry areas, flood prone lands

  7. Adapting to climate change – dealing with risk and uncertainty • Building resilience: what’s the difference between risk and uncertainty? • Diversification • Farmland and crop contracts • Insurance • Collective mechanisms • Lessons from adaptation to drought • Community based adaptation: building local innovation systems

  8. Kilimo Salama process

  9. Re-greening the Sahel

  10. Ecosystems, forests and biodiversity • Poor depend most on environmental assets + ecosystem services • Economic value of current rate of loss estimated at US$2-5 trillion per year • Increased stress from changes in temp, rainfall accelerate losses • Thresholds and tipping points

  11. Cities and climate change • Urban regions most at risk of flooding located in middle and low income nations – Nile delta, Gulf of Guinea, Bay of Bengal, cities of Maputo, Beira, Cape Town, Durban, Mumbai, Shanghai • 95% global population growth in next 30 years will take place in cities in developing world • Slums 50%+ of urban population and most vulnerable to flooding + land slides • Costs of adaptation to 1m sea-level rise could cost 5-10% of GDP • Current focus on low C investment needs to complement adaptation for most vulnerable

  12. Urban population in low-elevation coastal zone

  13. Politics, conflict and security • Climate change brings significant political consequences due to uneven impact, winners and losers – globally, regionally, within countries • Large scale migration, impoverishment, people seeking new land bring potential for conflict and security • Especially where guns widespread, young men without jobs, limited government capacity = political opportunism

  14. Unintended consequences of climate policy • Large scale land acquisitions – food and biofuels – environmental and social costs

  15. New market opportunities? • Agriculture a principal source of GHG emissions – can emission reductions be sold to voluntary/formal C market? • Defining/measuring C service • Minimising transaction costs • Risks of smallholder evictions • REDD+ funding • Defining/measuring C service • Managing the funds • Risks of smallholder evictions

  16. Lots of questions….. • What does climate resilient development look like? • What best means to support adaptation – funds, channels, level? If accountable govt is key, how to support this? • Any positive opportunities from climate change available to poor? • Does financial crisis make progress easier or harder – can we turn crisis into opportunity? • What impact $200/b oil on agriculture, transport, trade?

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