The National Climate Assessment: Overview

1. The National Climate Assessment: Overview Glynis C. Lough, Ph.D. National Climate Assessment US Global Change Research Program National Coordination Office http://assessment.globalchange.gov December 17, 2013

2. US Global Change Research Program • Global Change Research Act (1990) Mandate: • “To provide for development and coordination of a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respondto human-induced and natural processes of global change.” 13 Federal Departments & Agencies + Executive Office of the President

3. National Climate Assessment:GCRA (1990), Section 106 …not less frequently than every 4 years, the Council… shall prepare… an assessment which – • integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program (USGCRP) and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; • analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and • analyzes current trends in global change, both human- induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.

4. Previous National Climate Assessments Climate Change Impacts on the United States (2000) Climate Change Impacts in the United States (2009) http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/

5. The “New” National Climate Assessment Goal • Enhance the ability of the United States to anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to changes in the global environment. Vision • Advance an inclusive, broad-based, and sustained processfor assessing and communicating scientific knowledge of the impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities associated with a changing global climate in support of decision-making across the United States.

6. Third NCA Report Process January 14 – April 12, 2013 Federal agencies, universities, NCAnet members, and others Dec – Feb 2013 • Technical Input Teams Public and Expert Review Chapter Author Teams NCADAC Agency & White House Review Multiple Revisions of Draft Report (July – Nov 2013) Third NCA Report Spring 2014 Chapters (June 1, 2012) Draft Report (Fall 2012) Technical Inputs (March 1, 2012) Sustained Assessment

7. Scenarioswww.scenarios.globalchange.gov • Regional climatologies and projections • Global Sea level rise scenarios

8. Outline for Third NCA Report • Letter to the American People • Executive Summary: Report Findings • Our Changing Climate • Sectors & Sectoral Cross-cuts • Regions & Biogeographical Cross-cuts • Responses • Decision Support • Mitigation • Adaptation • Agenda for Climate Change Science • The NCA Long-term Process • Appendices • Commonly Asked Questions • Expanded Climate Science Info 8

9. Draft Report Findings • Global climate is changing, and this is apparent across the U.S. in a wide range of observations. The climate change of the past 50 years is due primarily to human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels. • Some extreme weather and climate events have increased in recent decades, and there is new and stronger evidence that many of these increases are related to human activities. • Human-induced climate change is projected to continue and accelerate significantly if emissions of heat-trapping gases continue to increase.

10. Global Climate is Changing

11. Projected temperature change under different emissions scenarios

12. Draft Report Findings • Impacts related to climate change are already evident in many sectors and are expected to become increasingly challenging across the nation throughout this century and beyond. • Climate change threatens human health and well-being in many ways, including impacts from increased extreme weather events, wildfire, decreased air quality, diseases transmitted by insects, food, and water, and threats to mental health. • Infrastructure across the U.S. is being adversely affected by phenomena associated with climate change, including sea level rise, storm surge, heavy downpours, and extreme heat.

13. Heavy Downpours have increased

14. Impacts Already Evident

15. Draft Report Findings • Reliability of water supplies is being reduced by climate change in a variety of ways that affect ecosystems and livelihoods in many regions. • Adverse impacts to crops and livestock over the next 100 years are expected. Over the next 25 years or so, the agriculture sector is projected to be relatively resilient, even though there will be increasing disruptions from extreme heat, drought and heavy downpours.

16. Impacts on Crops and Livestock

17. Natural ecosystems are being directly affected by climate change, including changes in  biodiversity and location of species. As a result, the capacity of ecosystems to moderate the consequences of disturbances such as droughts, floods, and severe storms is being diminished. • Life in the oceans is changing as ocean waters become warmer and more acidic. • Planning for adaptation (to address and prepare for impacts) and mitigation (to reduce emissions) activities is increasing, but progress with implementation is limited.

18. Natural Ecosystems Biological Responses to Climate Change

19. Adaptation State Adaptation Plans Adaptation Process

20. More information: • National Climate Assessment Public Draft: • NCADAC.globalchange.gov • NCA information • assessment.globalchange.gov • NCANet, the NCA network of partners • ncanet.usgcrp.gov Glynis Lough glough@usgcrp.gov Emily Cloyd ecloyd@usgcrp.gov

21. EXTRA SLIDES

22. Sectors • Water Resources • Energy Supply and Use • Transportation • Agriculture • Forestry • Ecosystems and Biodiversity • Human Health

23. Sectoral Cross-Cuts • Water, Energy, and Land Use • Urban Systems, Infrastructure, and Vulnerability • Impacts of Climate Change on Tribal, Indigenous, and Native Lands and Resources • Land Use and Land Cover Change • Rural Communities • Biogeochemical Cycles

24. Regions & Biogeographical Cross-Cuts Oceans and Marine Resources Coasts, Development, and Ecosystems