1 / 19

100 Per Cent Renewables Study AEMO Overview Stakeholder Information Forum 28 September 2012

Presented by: Rob Jackson. 100 Per Cent Renewables Study AEMO Overview Stakeholder Information Forum 28 September 2012. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY. 2. OVERVIEW. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY. AEMO to prepare a report on 100% renewable electricity supply scenarios The Report will contain:

marcy
Télécharger la présentation

100 Per Cent Renewables Study AEMO Overview Stakeholder Information Forum 28 September 2012

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Presented by:Rob Jackson 100 Per Cent Renewables StudyAEMO OverviewStakeholder Information Forum28 September 2012

  2. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY 2

  3. OVERVIEW

  4. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • AEMO to prepare a report on 100% renewable electricity supply scenarios • The Report will contain: • the generation plant and the major transmission networks required to support each scenario • the estimated capital cost requirements for each scenario based on today’s dollars, and • an indicative estimate of the impact on customer energy prices. 4

  5. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • Describe a generation and transmission portfolio that could supply forecast electricity demand in 2030 and 2050 at least-cost under 2 scenarios • => Four cases to be analysed • Just considering electricity supply and demand • NEM only • Maintaining the current reliability standard for the NEM of no more than 0.002% unserved energy (USE). 5

  6. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • Market framework: • The study will not address any changes required to the NEM or other market frameworks • Regulatory framework: • Assume the necessary regulatory framework is in place to enable the required build of electricity generation and transmission facilities. These include planning permit processes and market access issues 6

  7. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • The report will not include recommendations based on the results of the study • The report will not include any views as to the viability or likelihood of achieving 100% renewable supply by 2030 or 2050 7

  8. Overall Assumptions

  9. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • No transition path: • Describe 100% renewable scenarios for 2030 and 2050 • Will not include a description of any transition paths to these years • “Least-cost” considers costs of building in that year – akin to building the whole system in one year • However certain assumptions regarding a transition path will be made, such as: • technology development progress leading to technology availability (or not) in 2030 and 2050 • technology cost learning curves (but applied at 2030 and 2050 only) • generation and transmission equipment build-rate limits in the years leading to the target years of 2030 and 2050. 9

  10. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • Scenario 1 - Rapid transformation and moderate economic growth • strong progress on reducing technology costs • strong demand-side participation • moderate economic and demand growth • Scenario 2 - Moderate transformation and high economic growth • current trends in reducing technology costs continue • moderate demand-side participation • robust economic and energy demand growth 10

  11. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • What is the demand to meet? • What renewable energy resources and generation technologies are available? • How much of each resource / technology is available? • What is their cost? • What is the diversity and variability of different resources and locations? • What are the operational issues in managing a 100% Renewables system? 11

  12. Demand and Supply Assumptions

  13. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • The demand scenarios are for the electricity sector only • Forecast demand level is very uncertain • Extrapolate demand in line with current AEMO NEFR forecasts • Price elasticity is not well understood when subjecting to large changes – both residential and industry • Reasonable to assume that significant demand reductions will result – voluntary and through innovation • Add in a moderate amount of reductions for energy efficiency • No explicit fuel switching considered • Allowances included for assumed natural uptake of Electric Vehicles 13

  14. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • Included: • Wind – onshore and offshore • Solar – PV single-axis tracking • Solar – CST central receiver dual-axis tracking • Geothermal – two types (HSA, EGS) • Wave • Biomass • Hydro (existing) • Demand-side participation included here • Excluded • All fossil fuel (with or without CCS) • Nuclear 14

  15. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • Batteries (large scale > 10 MWh) • Biomass solids • Biogas • Compressed air • Molten salt thermal energy (heat) storage • Pumped hydro – existing + retrofit new fresh water (no new large dams) and new seawater 15

  16. NEXT Steps

  17. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY 17

  18. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • Modelling • Generation • Storage • Operational Review • Review of modelling results • Amend results if needed • Calculate capital cost requirements for each scenario • Calculate the indicative estimate of the impact on customer energy prices • Considering Wholesale Energy and Transmission only 18

  19. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLES STUDY • Assumptions report available on DCCEE webpage • Detailed Supply and Demand reports and data sets available on DCCEE webpage • 100 Per Cent Renewables Report • Draft to be finalised by 31 March 2013 • Final May 2013 19

More Related