Presentation to the Democratic Leadership Council

1. Presentation to theDemocratic Leadership Council By Mark J. Penn May 7, 2004

2. VulnerableWinnablePersuadable

3. Bush is Vulnerable • Bush is vulnerable • His numbers on key measures are low

4. Nation on Wrong Track • 55% think America is on the wrong track Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? * Source CBS News/NY Times, April 27

5. Direction of the Economy • 53% think the economy is on the wrong track In general do you think our economy is on the right track, or is it off on the wrong track? * Source – PSB, April 10

6. Bush Job Approval Low • Bush’s job approval is below 50%, and net negative * Source - Quinnipiac, May 4

7. Bush Econ Approval Low • 56% disapprove of how Bush is handling economy * Source – Gallup, May 4

8. Bush Iraq Approval Low • 55% disapprove of how Bush is handling Iraq • Additionally, half of Americans think Iraq is becoming another Vietnam * Source – PSB April 10 * Source – Gallup, May 4

9. Yet Bush Still Even in Polls • Despite those poor numbers, Bush is still roughly even in national polling • How is he surviving those vulnerabilities? • Issues Strength • Personal Strength

10. Bush Strengths: Protecting America • Americans are more confident Bush would keep them safe Who would do a better job of keeping the country safe? * Source – NBC, Wall St. Journal, May 3

11. Bush Strengths: War on Terror Bush approval rating on how handling war on terror. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling terrorism? * Source - Quinnipiac, May 4

12. Bush Favorability • Americans still have a favorable view of Bush—but these numbers are getting worse for him * Source – NBC, Wall St. Journal, May 3

13. Bush Strengths: Personal • Bush is seen as a likeable, consistent leader with moral standards * Source – NBC, Wall St. Journal, May 3

14. Winnable?

15. Can Kerry Win? • Kerry can win, but he has some hurdles to overcome: • He has not yet made a strong positive impression on voters • Voters have some doubts he will have to overcome • Voters are not clear on what his plan is • Voters do not think he has a better plan for Iraq - he is just criticizing Bush

16. Kerry Favorability * CBS News/New York Times

17. Kerry and Iraq • While 55% of Americans disapprove of the way Bush is handling the Iraq war, they don’t think Kerry has a better plan * Source – PSB, April 10 • By a 2 to 1 margin, voters do not think John Kerry has a better plan for Iraq than George Bush. Note how strong this sentiment is among undecided voters.

18. Kerry’s Vision and Message • Kerry has yet to define his vision and plan for voters • Universally, voters would rather hear John Kerry talk about where he stands on the issues than about his bio. Which would you rather hear from John Kerry? • His positions on the economy, taxes and security. • His record and accomplishments as a public servant. Record & Accompl. Positions & Issues * Source – PSB, April 10

19. Challenges for Kerry • Bush’s negative advertising has had an impact: • Half of voters think Kerry straddles issues • 1 in 5 are concerned he’s a Massachusetts liberal * Source – NBC, Wall St. Journal, May 3

20. Kerry and Taxes Do you think that John Kerry wants to raise taxes? Wants to Raise Taxes Don’t know Does Not Want to Raise Taxes * Source – PSB, April 10

21. Kerry Strengths • But Kerry does have strengths to build on • He leads Bush on key issues

22. Kerry Leads on Key Issues • Americans think Kerry will do a better job on: Health Care * Source - Quinnipiac, May 4

23. Kerry Leads on Key Issues • Americans think Kerry will do a better job on: The Economy * Source - Quinnipiac, May 4

24. Kerry Leads on Key Issues • Americans think Kerry will do a better job on: Education * Source - Quinnipiac, May 4

25. Kerry Strengths • Kerry is seen as more intelligent and more compassionate * Source – NBC, Wall St. Journal, May 3

26. Persuadable

27. Three Americas • There are three Americas • Democratic • Republican • Independent

28. 2004 Electoral Map

29. Ballot in Purple States

30. Three Types of Swing Voters When voting in the 2004 general election, which issue will be most important to you? Don’t know Economy Values Security

31. Economy Voters • Economy Swing Voters: • 47% of all swing voters • Kerry leads Bush 39%-18% • Equally Male-Female • More Democratic • More liberal • Concentrated in Midwest • Similar to 1996 Swing I Voters

32. Security Voters • Security Swing Voters: • 26% of all swing voters • Bush leads Kerry 40%-24% • More likely to be seniors • Less educated • More Republican • Concentrated in South • More like 1996 Swing II Voters

33. Values Voters • Values Swing Voters: • 23% of all swing voters • Bush leads Kerry 40%-23% • More likely to be female • Younger / Non-Seniors • More Republican • More conservative • Concentrated in South and West • More like 1996 Swing II Voters

34. Presidential Horserace by Gender and Race • Two key concerns for Kerry: White & Hispanic Men * Source – PSB, April 10

35. Conclusion: The Choice

36. Two Options • Democrats can go in one of two basic directions: • Run a campaign that’s main focus is negative attacks against Bush • Advocate a plan for the future with a vision of what Kerry and Democrats would do