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ESF- MedCLIVAR Workshop Climate Change Modeling for the Mediterranean region,

Regional air quality decadal simulations over Europe in present and future climate Prodromos Zanis, Ass. Professor Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece Contributors: E. Katragkou, I. Tegoulias, D. Melas, AUTH, Greece

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ESF- MedCLIVAR Workshop Climate Change Modeling for the Mediterranean region,

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  1. Regional air quality decadal simulations over Europe in present and future climate Prodromos Zanis, Ass. Professor Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece Contributors: E. Katragkou, I. Tegoulias, D. Melas, AUTH, Greece B. C. Krüger, BOKU-Met, Vienna, Austria P. Huszar and T. Halenka, CUNI, Prague, Czech Republic S. Rauscher, E. Coppola, ICTP, Trieste, Italy ESF- MedCLIVAR Workshop Climate Change Modeling for the Mediterranean region, ICTP, Trieste, Italy, 13-15 Oct 2008

  2. Interest has more recently turned to the potential influence of climate change on future air-quality levels which can be seen in various ways: • Warming will increase water vapor concentrations, and changes in temperature and water vapor will affect the reaction rates of many chemical conversions. • Climate change may also alter global circulation dynamics, changing several processes that govern the distribution of tropospheric ozone, such as a) stratosphere-troposphere exchange, b) the distribution of convection, and c) ventilation of the boundary layer. • Changes in climate will also affect many of the natural sources of trace gases, such as a) wetland CH4, b) biogenic volatile organic compounds, c) lightning NOx and d) soil NOx. • Changes in climate will also affect wet-scavenging of fine particulate matter species which however is strongly dependent upon the predicted regional-scale precipitation changes.

  3. Figure 1. Potential climate change effects on air-pollution and health (adapted by Bernard et al., 2001).

  4. Climatic Initial & Boundary Conditions RegCM3 Climate Model Biogenic Emissions on-line calculated Interface Anthropogenic Emissions CAMx Photochemical AQ Model Chemical Initial & Boundary Conditions Chemistry Parameters Photolysis Rates Pollutant concentrations Modeling system RegCM3 Resolution: 50 km x 50 km or 25 km x 25 km Vertical Layers: 18 (up to 50hPa) CAMx 4.40 Resolution: 50 km x 50 km Vertical Layers: 12 (up to 6.5 km) Chemistry Mechanism: CB(IV) + aerosol EMISSIONS: Anthropogenic: EMEP database Biogenic: On-line calculated (temp. + rad. dependent) CHEMICAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS: Clean

  5. 4 x10-year simulations of the RegCM3/CAMx offline system The regional climate model simulations of RegCM3 were used to drive off-line the air quality model CAMx for 4 decadal runs namely: • 1990-2001 with ERA-40 to drive RegCM3, (perfect BC run) • 1991-2000 with ECHAM5 to drive RegCM3, (control run) • 2041-2050 with ECHAM5 (under A1B scenario) to drive RegCM3 • 2091-2100 with ECHAM5 (under A1B scenario) to drive RegCM3 * Domain: European domain (ENSEMBLES) with 50 km x 50 km or 25 km x 25 km ** All the RegCM3 simulations for these time slices have been carried out by ICTP and provided to AUTH.

  6. Comparison of RegCM3/ERA-40/CAMx with EMEP ozonefor the whole year over the period 1990-2001 Fractional Gross Error Modified Normalized Mean Bias FGE ranges in the majority of stations between 10-35 % while MNMB ±20 %. ‘Satisfactory’ model performance is usually considered within the ranges of ± 15-20 % for normalized bias and 30-35 % for gross error according to US-EPA regulations (US EPA, 1991).

  7. Sensitivity studies Sensitivity to NOx emissions Sensitivity to biogenic emissions Winter Summer

  8. Comparison of ERA40/RegCM3/CAMx with ECHAM/RegCM3/CAMx over the period 1991-2000WINTER

  9. Comparison of ERA40/RegCM3/CAMx with ECHAM/RegCM3/CAMx over the period 1991-2000Summer

  10. Differences between 2041-2050 and 1991-2000of ECHAM/RegCM3/CAMx Winter

  11. Differences between 2041-2050 and 1991-2000of ECHAM/RegCM3/CAMx Summer

  12. Differences between 2091-2000 and 1991-2000of ECHAM/RegCM3/CAMx Winter ?

  13. Differences between 2091-2100 and 1991-2000of ECHAM/RegCM3/CAMx Summer

  14. Conclusions • Validation with EMEP • Evaluation of CAMx simulations showed that the modeling system has a satisfactory performance with respect to O3. • ECHAM1990 – ERA40 • The ozone differences are related to circulation changes modifying solar radiation and temperature fileds. • ECHAM2040 - ECHAM1990 • In summer, incoming solar radiation shows a substantial decrease throughout the whole domain, followed by a similar spatial behavior of O3 except SE Europe where Temperature and Biogenic emissions increase. • In winter increased solar radiation leads to increased O3 concentrations only in the west and southern part of the domain. • ECHAM2090 - ECHAM1990 • Ozone increases in large parts of Europe for both winter and summer. The spatial patterns of ozone and solar radiation are very similar suggesting that solar radiation is the dominant modulating factor for ozone changes.

  15. Thank you for your attention!

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