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Oregon Prison Economics

Presentation Outline. Trends in Incarceration RatesTrends in Taxpayer CostsTrends in Crime RatesPrison EconomicsThe relationship between incarceration and crime Benefit cost analysis. SB 1145. M11. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Oregon Prison Economics

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    1. Oregon Prison Economics Presented by Craig Prins and January 25, 2007

    2. Presentation Outline Trends in Incarceration Rates Trends in Taxpayer Costs Trends in Crime Rates Prison Economics The relationship between incarceration and crime Benefit cost analysis

    4. Historical & Forecasted Prison Population

    5. Prison Bed Forecast From July 2007 to July 2015 an additional 2,500 offenders are predicted to be incarcerated This increase is estimated to cost the state between $140 - $165 million more per biennium 165 million is calculated by including all DOC spending except community corrections 140million is calculated by including DOCs average cost per day plus the debt service Washington is expected to add 4,600 over this time. This is about a 25% increase compared to about an 19% increase for Oregon 165 million is calculated by including all DOC spending except community corrections 140million is calculated by including DOCs average cost per day plus the debt service Washington is expected to add 4,600 over this time. This is about a 25% increase compared to about an 19% increase for Oregon

    6. Measure 11 Intakes and Releases

    7. Jail portion includes SB 1145 offenders and is derived from the national jail surveyJail portion includes SB 1145 offenders and is derived from the national jail survey

    8. Tax Payer Costs State General Fund Criminal Justice costs have increased substantially since 1985 From $632 per household to $1,133 per house-hold per biennium in inflation adjusted dollars The largest increase has come from DOC Criminal Justice costs include DOC, OYA, OSP and the courts Courts includes the criminal portion of OJD, Public Defense and the entire budget for District Attorneys and their Deputies and DOJ

    9. Only the criminal portion of OJD and Public Defense is included. This is estimated to be about 50% for Judicial and 75% for Public Defense. Other includes DOJ, DPSST, CJC and Post-Prison and ParoleOnly the criminal portion of OJD and Public Defense is included. This is estimated to be about 50% for Judicial and 75% for Public Defense. Other includes DOJ, DPSST, CJC and Post-Prison and Parole

    10. General Fund Growth by Category Total spending on criminal justice has increased by 79%, mostly due to DOC (up 179%) Courts includes the criminal portion of OJD, Public Defense and the District Attorneys and their Deputies

    11. Can talk about how many need treatment vs how many actually get treatment.Can talk about how many need treatment vs how many actually get treatment.

    12. Crime Rates In Oregon violent and property crimes were much lower in 2005 than in 1980 This followed the trend in the United States as a whole Violent Index Crimes include Murder, Rape, Robbery, and Aggravated Assault. Property Crimes include Burglary, Larceny/Theft and Motor Vehicle Theft. Oregons Property Crime Rate was 44 per 1000 in 2005 and the U.S. was 34. Oregons Violent Crime Rate was 2.9 per 1,000 in 2005 and the U.S. was 4.7.Violent Index Crimes include Murder, Rape, Robbery, and Aggravated Assault. Property Crimes include Burglary, Larceny/Theft and Motor Vehicle Theft. Oregons Property Crime Rate was 44 per 1000 in 2005 and the U.S. was 34. Oregons Violent Crime Rate was 2.9 per 1,000 in 2005 and the U.S. was 4.7.

    16. Prison Economics What can be said about the relationship between incarceration and crime rates? How many crimes are avoided by incarceration? What are the costs and benefits of avoiding crime?

    18. Prison Economics Simple plot suggests that as incarceration rates went up, crime rates went down To test the effect of incarceration on crime we control for other factors that may cause crime rates to change Demographics, economic variables, population density, police force Make sure to note that I use the same model as Steve Aos and William Spelman. Make sure to note that I use the same model as Steve Aos and William Spelman.

    19. What is an elasticity? A measure of responsiveness measures how a percent change in one variable affects the percent change in another variable Results for Oregon show if the incarceration rate increases by 10% the violent crime rate is predicted to decrease by 3.4% and property crime rate is predicted to decrease by 2.6% Once an elasticity is estimated the number of avoided crimes can be easily estimated. These numbers are in the range of what has been found nationally and in other states.These numbers are in the range of what has been found nationally and in other states.

    21. Diminishing marginal returns reduce the benefit of incarceration

    22. Policy Implications Evaluate which offenders are the most efficient to incarcerate Use benefit cost model to evaluate other programs Compare benefit cost ratio across programs Provide estimates of which programs provide the largest return on investment

    23. For More Information Contact... Craig Prins Executive Director, Criminal Justice Commission Craig.Prins@state.or.us (503) 378-4858

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