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“ Point & Counter-point with Bob Lucky” Gordon Bell Microsoft May 5, 1998

“ Point & Counter-point with Bob Lucky” Gordon Bell Microsoft May 5, 1998. The 1998 Bellcore Forum:* Competing in the Millennium: Vision, Innovation, and Delivery

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“ Point & Counter-point with Bob Lucky” Gordon Bell Microsoft May 5, 1998

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  1. “Point & Counter-point with Bob Lucky”Gordon BellMicrosoftMay 5, 1998 The 1998 Bellcore Forum:*Competing in the Millennium: Vision, Innovation, and Delivery *Audience response was used for this presentation, and the attendees from Bellcore, LECs, CLECs, IECs/IXCs, Cable companies, and equipment suppliers were polled. The %s indicate the results of these polls.

  2. Predicting future telecom services or lack thereof • Introducing the Internet and Web driver • Cyberspace… the quest and vision … my opinion • Laws of Prediction … or how to understand the technology of our future • The big telecommunication bets… if we could only forecast the future • Overthrowing the incumbents… a plan* *Appended to the original talk.

  3. By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the “net”.Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1KBet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.Also $1 T of commerce by 2001. Bet: Me? 77% NN? 23%

  4. Why this is the keystone bet! • It determines the market • for networks • for access devices… especially PCs • It says something about the utility • commerce • communication • entertainment • Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables • phones • videophones • television • serendipity

  5. Interneters growth World Population 10000 1000 100 10 TVs & Phones “1 Gp by 2000”Negroponte PCs Internetters ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

  6. Interneters growth 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 World Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per year Internet Growthextrapolated at 98% per year ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

  7. WWW books, newspapers Infoway regulation Infoway promise: “how great it’ll be” (politicians, academics, etc.) Infoway addiction conferences lawsuits Growth in hype Data from Gordon’s WAG

  8. actual commerce articles about risk and NOT doing commerce pornography, crime, FUD, etc. articles Articles about security, privacy, & fraud versus commerce ($M) Data from Gordon’s WAG

  9. Real growth in commerce?

  10. The Virtuous Cycle that drives the BW quest Userdemand Application innovation Internet(IP) ubiquity Capac. (svc & response) Excess capac.-->>BW

  11. Bob Lucky, Vice President Bellcore, 1995 “ If we couldn’t predict the Web, what good are we? ”

  12. Exponentials change everything … you can’t see ‘em coming!

  13. Business Week even makes fun of Telecom… because you can see them coming

  14. Business Week doesn’t know… Satellite isn’t an a B/W option Phone CATV Satellite…

  15. Why phone guys hate computer guys 0. Where would they be without the transistor, RJ11 and UNIX that you de-standardized? 1. They’re nouveau rich we’re old money. 2. We brought ISDN to the party, nobody came. 3. They’re IP’ing on us including phones! 4. Packets don’t make links fatter or faster. 5. All they want is free, high bandwidth, 24 hour a day phone calls. Why do they need bandwidth? They have nothing to show. 6. Don’t talk service. I reboot my PC every day. Ever have to reboot your phone? 7. Just wait till the governments get on their case.

  16. Agenda… predicting and forecasting • Introducing the Internet and Web driver • Cyberspace… the quest and vision … my opinion • Laws of Prediction … or how to understand the technology of our future • The big telecommunication bets… if we could only forecast the future • Overthrowing the incumbents… a plan

  17. Let’s look at Cyberspace

  18. Cyberspace: A Network of ... Networks of ... Body Continent Region/ Intranet Home Campus World

  19. Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information • Coupling to all information and information processors • Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video • Bit tokens e.g. money, stock • State of: places, things, and people • State of: physical networks

  20. “The Computer” Mainframe tube, core, drum, tape, batch O/S direct > batch Mini & Timesharing SSI-MSI, disk, timeshare O/S terminals via commands POTS PC/WS micro, floppy, disk, bit-map display, mouse, dist’d O/S WIMP LAN Web browser, telecomputer, tv computer PC, scalable servers, Web, HTML Internet Platform, Interface, & Network Computer Class Enablers Network Interface Platform

  21. “Everything will be in Cyberspace” • Is this a challenge? goal? quest? fate?… or • Cyberization enables new computing platforms thatrequire new networks to connect them • Infrastructure supports the content • Three evolutionary dimensions

  22. All the platforms we have and will inevitably build have to be totally interconnected to have Cyberspace.That’s your job!The price has to be right… you cannot count on voice revenue forever!

  23. Connecting all these plain old computers into Cyberspace… an opportunity

  24. Mobile videophone

  25. Honda Robot

  26. People surrogates

  27. Steve ManninCyberspace

  28. MedtronicsImplantedCardioplastic

  29. For openers… audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location…1 GB

  30. Not shown: ECG; GPS; Compass; altimeter PCS; Pilot Libretto, .5mm pencil Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife

  31. Data Telephony Television Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020

  32. Game Cons. Telephony world VCR Television world DVD >97 Wire- less Cable Cable phone The Worlds of TV, Telephony & Datacom a.k.a. Computing & Internet Broad- cast LEC CLEC IEC xDSL TV DBS Cable I’net PBX ITV? I’net Phone The Internet LAN PBX I’net RADIO RADIO ISP Pvt. WAN IntranetExtranets Wire- less LAN Datacom world

  33. Programs, Content & messages Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space Computation Cyberization Communication

  34. Agenda… predicting and forecasting • Introducing the Internet and Web driver • Cyberspace… the quest and vision … my opinion • Laws of Prediction … or how to understand the technology of our future • The big telecommunication bets… if we could only forecast the future • Overthrowing the incumbents… a plan

  35. On prediction…and betting why historically have we been right or wrong?

  36. I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. “ ” Thomas Watson Senior, Chairman of IBM, 1943

  37. Harvard Mark I aka IBM ASCC

  38. Predictions require some history. • The computer hadn’t been invented. • Watson’s prediction held for 10 years. • You need history to predict.

  39. Moore’s Law vs Moron’s Law for prediction… differences in Cyberspace perception

  40. Moore’s Law 60%/yr. Memory -- 4 x size every 3 years 10 G 1 G 100 M 10 M 1 M 100 K 10 K 1 K 0.1 K 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  41. Tera Giga Mega Kilo 1 Storage Backbone Processing Memory ?? Telephone Service17% / year 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year

  42. Moron's Law (cf. Newton) “the residual effects of regulation ensure that telecom carriers will never provide what the customer wants and … it comes five years too late.”--venture capitalist Roger McNamee. “Computer folks ... fear that Moron's Law will trump Moore's and stunt the revolution's growth over the next 30 years.”

  43. Newton's First Law. Bodies at rest ... • LECs, PUC and FCC are at rest, supplying assuredly profitable (by definition) local service. • Cable TV raises prices to cash out • CLECs and IECs “cherry pick” lucrative corporate (not consumer) local service • LECs see reduced revenue and profit • LECs, PUCs, and FCC raise prices • LECs downsize to remain at rest, buy cable and CLECs to remain at rest & maintain monopoly

  44. Electricity and LECs to Merge Wires to the home … Guys and trucks Poles and holes… Same customers Geo-monopolies PUC interaction Core competency: lobbying

  45. Why computer guys hate phone guys 0. Ads say “someday you will”. Just do it! 1. All they give us is POTS to IP on. 2. It’s not the price of bandwidth (that they said would be free) … it’s the availability 3. They won’t buy packet switching. Computers let everyone be telecoms. They’ll pay. 4. The net is the net. Services are services. Content is content. Stop trying to own ALL. 5. Telephone quality is an oxymoron. With 64 kbps, we should be getting CD quality. 5. Name any monopoly that has love & respect 6. It’s taken 35 years to learn that computer calls last 24 hours/day, not 5 minutes.

  46. Why no one likes cable guys 0. But you just increased my rates 1. They don’t even own the poles or holes. They’re just schmucks in trucks. 2. They are too close to the broadcast industry and that eliminated logic. 3. We’d all like to be unregulated too then we can raise rates faster and do whatever we want.

  47. Telecom View of Cyberspace: We will tell you the services. The Network and all the Sevices you would ever want. Subscribers

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