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ASEAN, Japan, & China

ASEAN, Japan, & China. Historical legacy (1942 - 1945). Japan occupied the whole Southeast Asia. Japan’s Appeal in WWII. Japan’s appeal to Southeast Asia during World War II Economic benefits Japanese model for economic development since the Meiji Restoration of 1868

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ASEAN, Japan, & China

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  1. ASEAN, Japan, & China

  2. Historical legacy (1942 - 1945) • Japan occupied the whole Southeast Asia

  3. Japan’s Appeal in WWII • Japan’s appeal to Southeast Asia during World War II • Economic benefits • Japanese model for economic development since the Meiji Restoration of 1868 • ``Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere” • Anti-colonialism • ``Asia for the Asians” • nationalist movements

  4. ``Co-Prosperity Sphere” • ``Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere” • Japan’s economic foreign policy During World War II • Absorption of the economies of all occupied countries • Extraction of resources to fuel the war against the Allies

  5. Consequence of WWII • How did Southeast Asia change? • Decline of Western colonial power • Decline of the myth of European superiority • Rise in • Southeast Asian independence movements • Japanese interests and influence in Southeast Asia • US interests and influence in Southeast Asia • Integration into global economy & community

  6. Japan Returns (1950s) • US strategy concerning Japan • ``dynamo of wider regional recovery in Free Asia” • contain Communism • Closure of China market to Japan in 1950s and 1960s • Japan’s economic dependence on US • materials and markets of Southeast Asia

  7. Japan & Southeast Asia: 1 • Japan’s economic diplomacy in ASEAN • bilateral trade promotion & economic linkage • >1/4 of ASEAN’s total trade was with Japan • Japan invest more in ASEAN than US • Asian Development Bank (established in 1966) • avoid taking any political initiative • 1974: anti-Japanese demonstrations during Japanese Prime Minister’s visit

  8. ASEAN Attitudes • Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew said in 1969: • ``My generation and that of my elders cannot forget [WWII] as long as we live” • ``The policy of our government is not to allow the unhappy experiences of the past to inhibit us from a policy which can enhance our growth rates by Japanese participation”

  9. P.R.C. and ASEAN: 1 • In 1960s, Mao supported communist insurgencies in Southeast Asia • PRC-ASEAN relations were damaged by Mao’s policies during Cultural Revolution • changes in 1970s • PRC domestic policies became less radical • U.S. President Nixon visited Beijing and Shanghai

  10. Japan & Southeast Asia: 2 • Anti-Japanese demonstrations of 1974 • Fall of South Vietnam in 1975 • Japan began taking an active interest in the political affairs of Southeast Asia • from bilateral relations to focus on ASEAN

  11. Japan’s Reaction to 1978 • 1978: Vietnam invaded Cambodia • threatened Japan’s economic interests • Japan maintained a dialogue with Vietnam • Japan’s reaction • aligned with US-ASEAN-PRC camp • halted economic assistance to Vietnam • called for Vietnam to withdrew all troops from Cambodia

  12. P.R.C. and ASEAN: 2 • US relationship with PRC normalized in 1979 • US-PRC alignment in opposing the spread of Soviet influence in Southeast Asia • ASEAN-PRC alignment in opposing Vietnam • PRC started reform and opening in 1979 • trade and economic ties with ASEAN gained importance

  13. ASEAN’s Attitude to Japan • Distrust remained but reduced • Fears of Japan’s imperialist tendencies remained but reduced

  14. ASEAN-Japan Econ. Links • Economic links strengthened • ASEAN countries’ development programs needed Japan’s support and investment • Japan as an economic model and partner • Malaysia’s ``Look East” • Laos and Singapore’s ``Learn from Japan” • Complementary economies of Southeast Asia and Japan

  15. Japan & Southeast Asia: 3 • Since the end of the Cold War • Japan redefined its role in international affairs after the Cold War • Japan-ASEAN relationship strengthened • greater interactions • ASEAN as a region and as an institution • Japan’s deeper involvement in regional affairs • more politically engaged

  16. Japan’s Political Role • 1990: Tokyo Conference on Cambodia • 1992: Japan sent 1,800 troops as UN peacekeeping forces to Cambodia • since 1994: active participant in regional multilateral arrangements such as ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) • since 1997: political/security dialogues with Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia

  17. ASEAN Receptiveness • Malaysia Prime Minister Mahathir said in 1991: • ``As we approach the year 2000, it is our hope that Japan will initiate changes in its policies that will effectively bring about an enhanced political, socio-cultural role in not only the Southeast Asia region but also in the global context”

  18. Diminishing Role of History • After the Cold War • Increasing economic interdependence between Japan & Southeast Asia • Fear of Japanese remilitarization reduced • Generation change • “China threat”

  19. Rise of China • China’s ``Reform & Opening-up” policy • Increasing presence in Southeast Asia • Expanding trade • Political relations and influence • visits by leaders and summit meetings • substantive agreements on issues ranging from trade to military cooperation • by 1991 PRC has normalized relations with all the ASEAN member states

  20. Growing Regionalism (A+3) • 1995: Asia-Europe Meeting in Bangkok • ASEAN asked Japan, China, & South Korea to join as Asian representatives • Japan feared alienating US & China • US & Australian reservations about a regional grouping in Pacific Asia • impact on the success of APEC • possible division of global economy

  21. ASEAN+3 Summit • China & Japan compete for regional leadership position • ASEAN+3 summit has taken place at each of the ASEAN summit since 1997 • regular ASEAN+3 meetings of finance & economic ministers

  22. Asian Financial Crisis (‘97) • Japan’s role in Southeast Asia • contribution of funds and initiatives • emergency financial assistance • aid plan for regional human resource development • cooperation in information technology sector • inaction on banking reforms • ineffective economic stimulus measures • ASEAN urged faster action to help recovery

  23. Asian Financial Crisis (‘97) • China’s role: • refrained from devaluing yuan • contribution of funds and initiatives • entry into World Trade Organization (2001) • ASEAN-PRC Free Trade Area (2001) • threatens Japan’s economic leadership in Southeast Asia

  24. Japan • Japan signed its first-ever free-trade agreement (with Singapore) in 2002 • Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA)

  25. ASEAN Free-Trade Agreements • ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand FTA • ASEAN-China FTA • ASEAN-India FTA • ASEAN-Japan FTA • ASEAN-Korea FTA • ASEAN and its FTA partners negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

  26. Conclusions • ASEAN+3 have considerable potential • APEC may be too broad • ASEAN may be too narrow • Contested regional leadership position between Japan and China • Japan: the most advanced economy in Asia • China’s momentum

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