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Demography and Aging

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  1. Demography and Aging

  2. What is “demography”? • Demography is the study of populations • Counting and describing people • Age, sex, income, marital status… • Demographers calculate • life expectancy • birth and fertility rates • average age at marriage…

  3. Three basic processes affect population • Fertility • Mortality • Migration • Many factors affect these processes • Economic development, technology, religious and cultural values…

  4. “Population aging” • 1. How do we measure this?

  5. Indicators of population aging • Greater numbers of older people • Higher median age • A higher percentage of our population is “old” • In 1900, 4% of US population was 65+ • In 1996, just under 13%

  6. 2. What was the U.S. “baby boom” and when did it take place? • (and why do we care?!)

  7. 3. Which age group in the U.S. population is growing fastest?

  8. What is causing this shift in age? • Increasing life expectancy • =changes in mortality • Declining birth rates • =changes in fertility • 4. Which of these is most important?

  9. Fertility rates, 1950 and 2005 • Africa: 6.7 -> 5.1 • Asia: 5.9 -> 2.5 • Latin American / Caribbean: 5.9 -> 2.6 • North America: 3.5 -> 2.0 • Europe: 2.7 -> 1.4

  10. 5. What explains gains in life expectancy?

  11. 6. Gender distribution • Are the majority of U.S. older adults men or women? Why?

  12. Population pyramids • Also known as “age-sex pyramid” or age structure diagram • Shows how the “shape” of population changes • Often from pyramid (more younger people at the bottom, few old people) to rectangle (more equal distribution between ages)

  13. United States, 1950

  14. United States, 2000

  15. United States, 2050

  16. India, 2000

  17. India, 2025

  18. India, 2050

  19. Russia, 2000

  20. Russia, 2050

  21. Want to see more? • http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/informationGateway.php

  22. Global Aging: Which countries are the “oldest”?

  23. Percent Aged 65 and Over: 2000

  24. Percent Aged 65 and Over: 2030

  25. Uneven geographic distribution • Differences in fertility, mortality, and migration create different population characteristics in different areas • Differences between countries • Differences within countries • Which places in the U.S. are “old”? • Which places are “young”? • What difference does that make??

  26. Percentage of Population Age 65+ by State

  27. Interactive census tools… • http://www.census.gov/

  28. Other demographic trends… • Increasing diversity • Increasing levels of education • Changes in families

  29. Distribution by Race and Ethnicity

  30. Education, Percentage and Level 65+

  31. Education, Percentage by Race and Hispanic Origin

  32. Changes in families… • …affect who is available to take care of an older person. • Smaller families • Marriages and births at later ages • Increased likelihood of divorce • More blended families • …and the living arrangements of older people.

  33. Percentage by Age Living Alone

  34. 7. Who helps us when we are old? • Dependency ratios • Old age dependency ratio - % of population 65+ compared to % of population 18 to 64 (the “workers”). • Fewer workers supporting more older people • So old age dependency ratio is INCREASING

  35. Other ratios… • Childhood dependency ratio - % population age 0-17 compared to % population 18 to 64. • This is DECLINING • Overall dependency ratio - STABLE

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