Len Pietrafesa North Carolina State University Professor (ret)

1. The Coastal Perspective of the NoNpresents a Wonderful Opportunity on which to apply the CWCE Partnership Concept, the “Corporation for Environmental Monitoring” Len Pietrafesa North Carolina State University Professor (ret) Dean for Research, External Affairs (ret)

2. As relates to the NoN in the Coastal Regions: +/- 100 miles, NOAA is the principal game in town and its’ vision (actually the NWS’s) is right on target, which is: • to serve as the Nation’s 1st choice and 1st alert for global and national climate and weather analyses, forecasts, forecasts of hazards and guidance, and • to be the preferred partner in developing numerical model and new weather, water, climate products and services, and now “ecological forecasting” too • BTW, it is assumed that in NWS’s Mission Statement there is the tacit assumption that the Forecast output will be of “Gold Standard Quality” (GSQ) • And, as a corollary, that the numerical model based Guidance Products and Services will be based on and derived from the most advanced, reliable numerical modeling output and from what should constitute the “Essential Suite of Environmental Observations” • The products and services must meet user needs to protect life and property, enhance the Nation’s economy and support the Nation’s need for growing environmental information at the highest, most advanced levels possible, In coastal regions. Why?

3. The Reasons: 1) Flooding of People & Possessions = Fn( X,t) in Coastal Zones (eg. NC) =>1900-1950=2000/yr, 1950-1980=5300/yr, 1980-2000, 10,000/yr; 2) Rising Sea Level and the intention of ETCs to mimic TCs in coastal impacts; 3) Renewable Energy needs; 4) HA&TBs

4. The science of the mathematical architecture of numerical modeling of environmental systems has advanced greatly in academia and in the private sector over the past decade and is expected to advance even more rapidly over the next decade • air and land and water are interactively coupled in the real world • So, 2-way, interactively coupled, state-of-the-science atmospheric, ocean, coastal ocean and land based models will improve existing atmospheric and marine hydrodynamic forecasts • NOAA, NASA, DOD remote observing systems, are collecting and are expected to collect more, more types, and better data, all of which should be used to improve diagnostic and prognostic model output via data assimilation (DA) • DA is fast becoming become a core element of modern numerical modeling • An outcome should be that the NWS and other entities, should be beneficiaries of improved numerical model output, especially that driven by the assimilation of real-time data, to diagnose and improve forecasts, for expanded product and service suites and to meet renewable energy needs

5. A point to be made is: The availability and use of global ocean data sets are much farther along in maturity than are the equivalent observational resources for the coastal oceans and estuaries, in general, with coverage objectively deemed to be sub-marginal (Spriggs and Bosart, NRC, 1997; Rotunno and Pietrafesa, USWRP, BAMS, 1998; Pietrafesa et al, NOAA SAB, 2004) • Now, because modeling and observations are dependent on one another to maximize their joint forecast utility, coordinated programs of observations and models are required nationally, regionally and locally • Objective analyses should be conducted to determine if the natural systems are under-sampled and thus, whether or not additional in-situ data are required to improve forecasts • Needed are DA numerical modeling experiments (Retrospectives, Hindcasts, OSSEs, Diagnostics) to determine where additional data might be needed to improve forecasts and product suites

6. Finding: In the Coastal Ocean and Estuary areas, succinctly stated: There are insufficient data both to validate let alone drive models • Finding: In the coastal areas there are insufficient data to properly assess renewable energy resources • Finding: NWS produces forecasts of phenomena in these areas but lacks critical observations to drive or diagnose the model output • For eg., NWS cannot document the “initiation and onset of convective events” in coastal areas (like Cyclogenesis or the Coastal Front) • Additionally, couplings to land hydrologic systems, both atmospheric and land-based, are necessary both from monitoring and modeling perspectives • These are all feasible • Just what is the existing in-situ coverage?

7. Nominally there are ~ 77 NDBC buoys and 56 NDBC C-MAN stations and 41 NOS NWLON (reference water level) stations for ALL of the coastal zone waters of the 50 states of the Nation (including the Great Lakes, Alaska and Hawaii) • If NWS were to conduct DA experiments, it could guide attention to determine what a more essential in-situ monitoring array should be • Without assimilation of the necessary data into the modern generation of models one cannot achieve the goal of GSQ • Now, IOOS was originally viewed as the panacea, and in fact, ~ a decade ago, was envisioned as a cooperative international, global (downscaled to the national coastal ocean scale) network of observations, metadata and modeling • The coastal ocean observing component of IOOS was originally viewed as a key contributor to the existing national NDBC and CMAN national backbone to be operated by the federal government. It was intended to produce an optimal densification of the existing system • But IOOS evolved in a way that does not contribute to the improvement of operational forecasts and products

8. The spawning or further intensification of ETCsleft: An ETC cyclogenesis event near Cape Hatterasright: The New England blizzard of 2005 Boom! A Bomb is formed

9. Flying thru the event

10. Universities are deploying and maintaining the IOOS arrays. But, this is not an Academic function. This is properly a Federal Agency and could even be a Private Industry function • Meanwhile, NOAA is developing models. This is not a NOAA function. Academia and Industry should do this and port the appropriate capabilities to NOAA • The existing IOOS is the carry-over carnage of what began as the ear-mark process and putting it under the control of Regional Associations dominated by non-operational parts of NOAA is a fatally flawed plan, driven by parochial, local politics • IOOS in its present configuration is not a rational NoN systems approach • Here Industry, the NWS and the Academic Communities have an opportunity to capitalize on the NoN Report and the case of the clearly documented need for more and better observations, to make the case to greatly and properly enhance the existing marine buoy network and to provide context to the optimal sittings of the elements of the arrays

11. Recommendations: • Form an “Essential Coastal NoN” Public- Private - Academia Partnership • Let the Partnership Design the Essential Coastal Observing Array • Let Industry and Academia develop and test new sensors, sensor systems and instruments • Let Industry and Academia develop and test DA methodologies via Hindcasts, Retrospectives, OSSEs and Diagnostics • Let NOAA conduct the QA/QC on the data • Port (4) to NOAA, R2O • Let NOAA conduct the forecasting • Let NOAA and Industry maintain and service the Essential Observing Array • Revisit the Federal Appropriation for IOOS and push for a rational plan for the re-direction of those funds • Let Industry and Academia nest observing sites as needed for their purposes into the Essential Array • Fund research in support of operations through an NSF-like competition, and require that an applicant be a 3-way partnership, with an operational component as part of the proposal