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Crisis Decision Making Principles & Precepts

Crisis Decision Making Principles & Precepts. Decision —passing of judgment on an issue Reaction —a response to a stimulus This class is not focused on reactions Decisions require: Knowledge Memory Thought Judgment . Decisions or Reactions?. 27. Reaction!. Decision.

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Crisis Decision Making Principles & Precepts

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  1. Crisis Decision MakingPrinciples & Precepts

  2. Decision—passing of judgment on an issue Reaction—a response to a stimulus This class is not focused on reactions Decisions require: Knowledge Memory Thought Judgment Decisions or Reactions? 27 Reaction! Decision

  3. U.S.S. Vincennes (CG-49) State of the art ship Equipped with Aegis electronic battle management system Top Notch Captain and Crew July 3, 1988 Patrolling Strait of Hormuz Iran Air Flight 655 shot down 290 civilians killed Crisis Decision Making 26 How Could it Happen?

  4. Fogarty Report recommended Chief of Naval Operations to examine stress factors on human decision making TADMUS study began in 1990 Lasted 9 years Opted for actual field conditions rather than laboratory analysis Studied both individual and team decision making TADMUS Study 25

  5. What do we know about it? Not entirely a rational process Brain is a multiprocessor Requires both short-term and long-term memory Expertise counts Perceptual information is not processed simultaneously Stressors will impede it Training will improve it Human Decision Making 24

  6. Rational Logical and methodical process Emotional Decision-making “shortcuts” Dispositions, Biases, Prejudices & Paradigms The truth is not enough, wemust also believe it! Perceptional How the information is received Three Factors Present in allHuman Decision Making 23

  7. Brain processes visual cuesfaster than auditory Motion processed before Color Color is processed before Shape Color yellow is processedfaster than other colors Auditory - Frequency processed before direction(Sometimes called the “Cocktail Party Effect”) Perceptional Priorities 22

  8. Smell (brain processing time about 125 msec—detection, not discrimination) Humans can detect about 10,000 different odors Minty (peppermint) ;Floral (roses) ;Ethereal (pears) ;Musky (musk) ;Resinous (camphor) ;Foul (rotten eggs) ;Acrid (vinegar) Hearing (brain processing time about 150 msec) Frequency before Direction before Recognition Touch (brain processing time about 155 msec) Pain, Pressure, Heat Vision (brain processing time about 190 msec) Motion, then Color, then Shape Taste Sweet; Sour; Bitter; Salty; Umami(savoriness as in aged or fermented foods) The Human Body is a Transducer! 21

  9. Pink Elephant Native Thinking Format 20

  10. Which Would You Rather Have? 19 Get on the on ramp heading Southeast out of the airport. Make sure you’re in the extreme right lane or you’ll have to completely circle the airport again. Merge onto Sepulveda Blvd. for about a half-mile and take the Imperial Hwy west ramp. Stay in the left lane and merge onto I-105 heading East. Take this freeway clear to the 710 freeway (about 13 miles) and head north to the 3rd St. exit.This exit is the next one after the 60 Fwy. Get off the Fwy. and turn left to 3rd St. and then right toMednik. Turn left on Mednik to thefirst right after the big multi-coloredbuilding on your right. After turningright, stay straight and drive into thedriveway into the Special EnforcementBureau. If you are in the right place,you’ll notice the 60 Fwy. on your immediate right. Call 323-264-7084if you get lost.

  11. What is It? 18 It was invented in 1938 by the Hungarian inventor, Georg Biro. While they come in many styles, colors and configurations, they are easily reloaded by anyone who can use one. Simply pick up the device and grasp the lower barrel firmly between the thumb and forefinger of either hand and twist counter-clockwise while holding tightly to the upper barrel in a similar manner with the other hand. Slowly twist the two components counter-clockwise while applying slight pressure between the barrels to avoid dropping any internal components. The refill is located inside the hollow cylinders of the upper and lower barrels and held between the front spring and the back spring, which in turn is held under a plunger. To reload the device, simply pull the upper and lower barrels apart while carefully avoiding dropping any internal component. Avoid contact with the point of the refill to prevent permanent stains of clothing and other absorbent materials. Slide the upper barrel assembly away from the remaining components and place aside. Remove the old refill component and discard. Insert a fresh refill into the lower barrel and repeat the steps in reverse order to reassemble.

  12. Transferring Information 17 • I didn’t say she stole your money! • Ididn’t say she stole your money! • I didn’tsay she stole your money! • I didn’t sayshe stole your money! • I didn’t say shestole your money! • I didn’t say she stoleyour money! • I didn’t say she stole yourmoney! • I didn’t say she stole your money!

  13. Humans can simultaneously think and do several things The brain does not giveequal attention to all tasks Two demanding tasks can not be equally shared! Multi-Processing 16

  14. Brain processes aboutone symbol in ~25 milliseconds Maximum retention of about seven items Without reinforcement the brain forgets in about 30 seconds. Examples include telephone numbers,social security numbers, addresses, names, etc. (323) 526-5541, 123-45-6789, 36-15-45 Limited Short Term Memory 15 • (chunking)

  15. Takes muchlonger to acquire but there is nearly an unlimited capacity and they are retained for life Examples include experience, training, and education Where meaning is attached Where understanding occurs Long Term Memory 14

  16. Critical for Expertise Pattern Recognition 13 How Many Orange Balls? 19

  17. Experts work, not by seeking the relevant, but by eliminating the irrelevant This allows more time to focuson a smaller sample They don’t start from scratch,they start where they left off! They don’t think harder, theyjust think in more productive ways. A thorough understanding ofthe issues coupled with a rich repertoire of experiences provides a solid foundation to draw upon Expertise & Experience Count! 12

  18. ?—L—M—N—? ?— 19—20—? ?— 7—9—11—? ?— 13—? 1—2—3—5—8—13—? Fibonacci Sequence Shave and a haircut Pattern Completion 11

  19. Pattern Correction 10 Aoccdrnig to rscheearch at an Elingshuinervtisy, it deosn’tmttaer in wahtoredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the only iprmoetntihng is taht the frist and lsatltteer is at the rghitpclae. The rset can be a toatlmses and you can sitllraed it wouthitmcuhporbelm.

  20. In a moment you will view a short video There will be two groups of people tossing a basketball. One group will be dressed in white, the other in black. Carefully count the number of completed passes for the white team. After recording your answer, you will be given one more opportunity. Task Saturation 9

  21. Task Saturation 8

  22. The Dollar Auction! Only 2 Rules! There is no minimum bid, but the maximum is 5¢ over the previous bid The auctioneer agrees to work for the second highest bid Incremental Decision Making 7

  23. Pattern Recognition Anomalies(even subtle) Situation Awareness(big picture) Understanding of the Way things Work(Mental model of functions, coordination, mechanisms, etc.) Opportunities and Improvisations(leverage points) Fine Discriminations(Significance missed of/and events that will happen) Experiences the Past and the Future(Flying behind the plane, Event Horizon) Understands and manages their own limitations Memory, Situation Awareness, Self-Critiques, Strategy Selection The Power to See the Invisible Characteristics of Expertise 6

  24. Indexing the BrainThe Gilligan Exercise 5 • Once a framework of knowledge is placed in long-term memory only a cue is necessary to retrieve it. • Information is best stored (memorized) by linking it with other similar information • Ironically, more is better • Information learned by personal experience is more resilient • Humor, excitement, anger, embarrassment, sympathy, enjoyment, fear, etc.

  25. Multiple Information Sources Incomplete, unreliable, confusing or conflicting information Rapidly changing, evolving scenarios Requirement for coordination Adverse physical conditions Time pressure High work or information load Auditory overload or interference Physical threat Stressors 4

  26. Programming the Brain 3 What are the colors of the letters? Yellow Jnprtp Yellow Blue kndl Blue Red Ztv Red Green Htwqs Green Brown Nzxto Brown Purple Auplw Purple White Rbxea White Gray Obct Gray Pink Wiue Pink Orange Ptmayr Orange

  27. As high as 78% improvement in TADMUS experiments Automated and ControlledProcessing Software for the Brain Stress Inoculation Recognitional Primed Decision-making Pattern Recognition Pattern Correction Pattern Completion Training Works! 2

  28. RPD Model is descriptive, not prescriptive You can’t decide to use it, you can’t avoid using it Expertise can’t be trained, it must be learned! Some things have to be learned but can’t be taught! Engage in deliberate practice Compile an extensive experience bank Obtain feedback that is accurate, diagnostic and reasonably timely Enrich experiences by reviewing prior experiences to derive new insights and lessons There’s nothing more practical than a good theory.(Scientific Adage) Training Expertise 1

  29. So what are the Implications?

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