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Shale Gas in South Africa

Shale Gas in South Africa. Opportunities and challenges. Bonang Mohale. Chairman and Country GM: Commercial. Definitions and Cautionary Note.

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Shale Gas in South Africa

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  1. Shale Gas in South Africa Opportunities and challenges Bonang Mohale Chairman and Country GM: Commercial

  2. Definitions and Cautionary Note Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves for all 2009 and 2010 data, and includes both SEC proved oil and gas reserves and SEC proven mining reserves for 2008 data. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves or SEC proven mining reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions. Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves and SEC proven mining reserves (for 2008) excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact. The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation“Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentationrefer to companies in which Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In thispresentation, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 24% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest. This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentationare expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2010 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 19 July 2011. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all. We may use certain terms in this presentation, such as resources and oil in place,that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.

  3. The energy landscape CHANGING ENERGY MIX RISING GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND Million barrels oil equivalent per day 100 = global primary energy demand 2000 * * * Shell estimates

  4. Shell’s RESPONSE TO the CO2 CHALLENGE NATURAL GAS BIOFUELS CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE ENERGY EFFICIENCY • Largest distributor • Raizen (Cosan JV) • R&D for advanced biofuels • Demo Projects • R&D to advance CCS technology • Leader in LNG • Abundant & Affordable • Acceptable: Cleaner source for power • Invest in energy efficiency

  5. The case for gas ABUNDANT ACCEPTABLE AFFORDABLE • Abundant global gas resources, growing and geographically diverse • Conventional and unconventional recoverable gas resources can supply >250 years of current global gas production • CCGT: gas-fired power compared to coal: • 40% more energy efficient • Emits 50-70% less CO2 • Better complement to wind power • Replacing coal with gas for electricity generation is the cheapest and fastest way to meet CO2 reduction targets • CCGT cheapest to build • Similar total cost to coal and nuclear CAPITAL COST TOTAL COSTS CCGT: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Total Cost = Capital + Fuel + Operating Source: DECC (Mott MacDonald) June 2010 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, WoodMackenzie, Shell Interpretation NATURAL GAS: A DESTINATION FUEL 5

  6. South Africa need Energy and investment • South Africa needs 56 GW of new electricity generation capacity whilst reducing CO2 emissions by 30% by 2030 (IRP 2010-2030) • Continued economic growth dependent on stable energy supply • 90% of South Africa’s power supply is from coal today • In the exploration phase alone, Shell could make substantial investments in South Africa • In a development scenario local benefits will include jobs and local business opportunities

  7. South Africa Energy OPTIONS • Short to medium term options are coal, gas or import • Need full range of energy sources. By 2050, 30% of the global energy mix could be renewable. But renewable energy options (solar, wind) still rely on heavy subsidies and will take more than 20 years to become material • Biofuels will play an increasing role • Nuclear will take 15 years to build and has its own challenges • If proven commercial, shale gas may provide a game-changer to South Africa’s current energy deficit • Gas can complement growing and intermittent renewable energy sources Coal Gas Biofuels Nuclear Solar & Wind >> > >> < ? 15 yrs +

  8. Concerns and commitments • Shell commitments (SA) • Not compete with the people of the Karoo for their water needs • Nobody will go short of fresh water because of our operations • Disclose fracturing fluids at each drilling location • Conserve and recycle water • Consult local experts • Community concerns • Land use • Water Use • Contamination of aquifers • Noise, traffic • Air quality due to emissions

  9. overall footprint • A Modern Shale Gas Landscape (Groundbirch, Canada), where surface well locations are separated by ~5km • Red arrows indicate well sites • This type of separation would be pursued by Shell if hydrocarbons are discovered and developed in the Karoo (Note: Up to 32 wells from single pad)

  10. Water management • Water factors in shale gas exploration and production • Water source • Transport • Hydraulic fracturing efficiency • Flow-back water cleanup and treatment • Water production and consumption from wells • Water recycling • Water disposal • Possible water sources • Deep level saline water • Surface water • Municipal wastewater • Seawater 10

  11. Well integrity and aquifer protection • Prior to drilling a new hole section, casing is pressure tested to insure isolation

  12. Well integrity and aquifer protection • Groundwater protected by concrete and steel casings running to below the level of potable water aquifers • Hydraulic Fractures produced extend into the rock over a limited interval in the subsurface layers • They are isolated from aquifers by over a kilometer of rock

  13. Job creation and economic impact • The types of jobs that may be locally resourced in the exploration phase could include: security guards, water haulers, crane operators, environmental monitors, logistics staff, electricians, plumbers, construction labor, catering, accommodation etc. • The Marcellus Shale development (US) had by 2008 created 29,000 jobs and generated $2.3 billion in value added, $238 million in taxes (Independent study by Penn State University 2008) Electricians Environmental specialists Construction Welders

  14. License application areas versus SKA CORE SITE • Shell supports South Africa’s bid for the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) telescope project and will comply with applicable legislation in this regard. We will also ensure that any future activities we may undertake in respect of the proposed gas exploration project are compatible with the country’s bid to host the SKA telescope.

  15. Operating principles • Shell has set five global onshore tight/shale oil and gas operating principles that provide a tested framework for protecting water, air, wildlife and the communities in which it operates. • Shell designs, constructs and operates wells and facilities in a safe and responsible way • Shell conducts its operations to protect groundwater and reduce water use as reasonably practicable • Shell conducts its operations in order to protect air quality and control its fugitive emissions • Shell works to reduce its operational footprint • Shell engages with local communities regarding socio-economic impacts that may arise from our operations • Raising the industry bar and enforcing transparency

  16. summary • South Africa needsadditional electricity generation capacity and significantly reduce its CO2 emissions • If proven commercial, shale gas may be a game-changer to South Africa’s current energy deficit • There are challenges, but risks can be mitigated with: • Best industry standards and practice • Strong regulatory oversight • The key challenge in the Karoo is access to water, not hydraulic fracturing or possible spills • The footprint of subsequent shale gas developments in Karoo will be limited

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