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Insights on Actuarial Predictions: Trends and Surveys Since 1998

This report analyzes the findings of the annual GIRO opinion survey conducted since 1998, which evaluates the accuracy of actuarial predictions. It highlights the different methodologies used across various years, including reliance on historical data and expert knowledge. Notably, the survey indicates a general optimism, suggesting that respondents expect gradual improvements in future market performance. Additionally, it examines the underwriting results in the motor market and presents statistics on Lloyd's names and capacities, revealing sporadic confidence levels among professionals.

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Insights on Actuarial Predictions: Trends and Surveys Since 1998

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Presentation Transcript

  1. How Good are Actuarial Predictions ?

  2. GIRO opinion survey • Run each year since 1998 • Some years included past dataOthers relied on general knowledge • The way the questions are set no doubt introduces “anchoring”

  3. In summary as a group we believe that next year is going to be a bit better, and the year after that is going to be much improved

  4. Motor market U/W result- top 6 by GWP

  5. Motor market U/W result- top 6 by GWP

  6. Motor market U/W result- top 6 by GWP

  7. Motor market U/W result- top 6 by GWP

  8. F T S E

  9. F T S E

  10. F T S E

  11. F T S E

  12. F T S E

  13. GWP of top 6 Motor

  14. GWP of top 6 Motor

  15. GWP of top 6 Motor

  16. Number of Lloyds Names

  17. Number of Lloyds Names

  18. Number of Lloyds Names

  19. Lloyd’s Capacity

  20. Lloyd’s Capacity

  21. Lloyd’s Capacity

  22. How good are individuals? • No consistent pattern year on year • “Majority View” is up with the best

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