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Climate Change: Always the Bridesmaid?

C DMC. Climate Change: Always the Bridesmaid?. Hadi Dowlatabadi Canada Research Chair, UBC Climate Decision-Making Center, CMU University Fellow, RFF December 7 2006 Hadi.d@ubc.ca. Outline. Is climate change the primary concern of anyone but the climate impacts community?

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Climate Change: Always the Bridesmaid?

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  1. CDMC Climate Change:Always the Bridesmaid? Hadi Dowlatabadi Canada Research Chair, UBC Climate Decision-Making Center, CMU University Fellow, RFF December 7 2006 Hadi.d@ubc.ca

  2. Outline • Is climate change the primary concern of anyone but the climate impacts community? • Do we have decision-aiding approaches that are climate change capable? NO! But all we want is better decisions. 2 07.12.2006

  3. Views of Climate • Context • Determinant • Hazard • Resource Source: Riebsame, 1985 CONTROL+ALT+DELETE 3 07.12.2006

  4. Source: www.impawards.com/.../ wag_the_dog_ver3.jpg http://samiam.com/uploaded_images/an-inconvenient-truth-702835.jpg

  5. Australian Agri-drought • 1997 we completed a project on adaptation in Australian agriculture. • We expected ENSO effects to have made the sector particularly aware of adaptation issues. • We expected adaptation to climate change to be a primary driver of their choices… 5 07.12.2006

  6. Rainfall & Wheat yield:1950-1990 6 07.12.2006

  7. Rainfall, Yield, and profits:1950-1990 Coefficient of variation higher in profit than yield 7 07.12.2006

  8. Multi-stress • Weather • Internal markets • External markets • C+N cycle disturbances • Pests • Soil & water degradation • Financial & currency markets 8 07.12.2006

  9. Multi-Responses • Storage • Insurance • Engineering • Management • Land use • R&D • Incentives • Disaster Aid • … 9 07.12.2006

  10. Characterizing Interactions 10 07.12.2006 Source: D. Greatz, H. Dowlatabadi, M. Kandlikar, and J. Risbey (1998)

  11. Sea Level Rise 11 07.12.2006 July 25 1995

  12. homes are arrayed to enjoy the view ... Housing modelinformationfrom tax rolls 13 07.12.2006

  13. Storm Surges + Sea Level Rise Storm model information fromtide gauges 14 07.12.2006

  14. Impacts from SLR • We only simulate 50 years -- before there is inundation. • But during this time there will be many storms. • Subsequent to each storm homeowners decide about repairs, relocation, etc. • Household level decision-making is simulated using patterns of insurance claims in combination with: assumptions about homeowner risk aversion, developer motivations, and a simple model of the real estate market. • We run many simulation runs in order to get representative distributions of storm events over 50 years. 15 07.12.2006

  15. damage due to SLR and STORMS 1.00 0.75 Cumulative Probability 0.50 0.25 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Inundationdamage $ 106 discounted cumulative damage (50 yrs) 16 07.12.2006

  16. damage With & Without Rebuilding Regulations 1.00 0.75 Cumulative Probability 0.50 0.25 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 $ 106 discounted cumulative damage (50 yrs) 17 07.12.2006 Source: West, J. J., H. Dowlatabadi, et al. (2001). "Storms, investor decisions, and the economic impacts of sea level rise." Climatic Change48: 317-42.

  17. Source: www.geo.arizona.edu/.../ slr_usafl_3meter_lg.htm

  18. Why Arctic Communities? • Expected to experience the greatest climate change, • measured in terms of absolute temperature change and moisture transport. • Have similar current challenges to most developing countries, • with the exception of affiliation with source of funding. • Access! 20 07.12.2006

  19. Demography & Economy • 26,000 people • 85% Inuit • 56% under 25 yr • 350,000 km2 of land • 23 communities • Territorial budget of 960M • 80% transferred from Federal Government 21 07.12.2006

  20. This talk • Context • Health • Education • Culture • Economy • Climate Change • Temperature • Sea ice • Sea level • Opportunities • Awareness • Capacity to respond • … 22 07.12.2006

  21. Health • The Inuit & First Nations suffer more than twice the national average in: • Infant mortality, • Lung cancer, • Respiratory illnesses, • Unintentional injury, • Disability, • Suicide. 23 07.12.2006

  22. Education Source: Statistics Canada 24 07.12.2006

  23. Ethnicity Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP. 25 07.12.2006

  24. Oil & Gas Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP. 26 07.12.2006

  25. The Arctic Front Based on: mean air mass position: Li, S.M., R.W. Talbot, L.A. Barrie, R.C. Harriss, C.I. Davidson and J.-L. Jaffrezo, 1993. Seasonal and geographical variations of methane sulphanic acid in the Arctic troposphere. Atmos. Environ. 27A: 3011-3024. 27 07.12.2006

  26. NOx Emissions Based on: Benkovitz, C.M., T.M. Schultz, J.M. Pacyna, L. Tarrason, J. Dignon, E.C. Voldner, P.A. Spiro, A.L. Jernnifer and T.E. Graedel, 1995. Gridded inventories of anthropogenic emissions of sulfur and nitrogen. J. geophys. Res. 101: 29239. 28 07.12.2006

  27. Lead Emissions Based on: Pacyna, J.M., B.D. Shin and P. Pacyna, 1993b. Global emissions of lead. Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada, Ottawa. 29 07.12.2006

  28. Ocean Currents Based on: Macdonald, R.W. and J.M. Bewers, 1996. Contaminants in the arctic marine environment: priorities for protection. ICES J. mar. Sci. 53: 537-563. 30 07.12.2006

  29. DIET POPs Based on: Hobson, K.A. and H.E. Welch, 1992. Determination of trophic relationships within a high Arctic marine food web using delta-13C and delta-15N analysis. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 84: 9-18. Hargrave, B.T., 1994. Sources and sinks of organochlorines in the Arctic marine food web. In: J.L. Murray and R.G. Shearer (eds). Synopsis of research conducted under the 1993/94 Northern Contaminants Program, pp. 178-184. Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, Ottawa, Environmental Studies 72, 459p. 31 07.12.2006

  30. 137Cs(Bq/m2)Estimated from bomb fallout and precipitation Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP. 32 07.12.2006

  31. Average Cs137 in diet(for 100Bq/m2 dispersion) Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP. 33 07.12.2006

  32. WWII Drivers of Development

  33. One of the routes for the NW Passage Source: www.keepwintercool.org/ earthimage.html Partner communities

  34. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CLIMATESUMMARY/2003/IMAGES/annual.1954-2003.tchange.pnghttp://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CLIMATESUMMARY/2003/IMAGES/annual.1954-2003.tchange.png

  35. From: http://www.uwgb.edu/dutchs/graphic0/seismol/canisos.gif

  36. PreDorset Dorset Historic Contemporary Coping with Sea Level Change in 4000 yrs Source: Susan D.M. Rowley

  37. 41 07.12.2006 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg

  38. Regional Patterns Differ 42 07.12.2006 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg

  39. www.sfu.ca/.../ physical%20ocean.html

  40. Source: www.geophysics.dias.ie/. ../slave_lakes.html

  41. Response Models of community adaptation: Climate vulnerability sets priorities Sensitivity to climate change Community priorities 46 07.12.2006

  42. Response Models of community adaptation: All vulnerabilities set priorities Sensitivity to multiple stresses Sensitivity to climate change Community priorities 47 07.12.2006

  43. Response Models of community adaptation: Local control is limited Sensitivity to multiple stresses Sensitivity to climate change Community priorities Community control 48 07.12.2006

  44. Models of community adaptation: A fuller picture Successful Responses Sensitivity to multiple stresses Adaptive Capacity Sensitivity to climate change Community priorities Community control External resources 50 07.12.2006

  45. Hypotheses • H0: Communities identify risks from climate change as a special priority. • H1a: Communities enjoy control commensurate with their priorities. • H1b: Communities enjoy control over matters involving climate change adaptation. • H2: CEDO priorities and resources match needs for broader community development planning. 51 07.12.2006

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