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Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting

Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting

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Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting

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  1. Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting Kansas City, MO January 28th, 2014 Doug Kluck NOAA Regional Climate Services Director Doug.kluck@noaa.gov 816-564-2417

  2. Agenda • National Soil Moisture Monitoring • Missouri Basin Soil & Snow Monitoring • Missouri Basin NIDIS (National Integrated Drought Information System) Kick Off Meeting

  3. Developing a Coordinated National Soil Moisture Network • Why? • Common Sense • 2011 & 2012 Droughts • President’s Climate Action Plan – resiliency to drought, floods, extremes • NIDIS sponsored - November – KC • USGS, USACE, SDSU, AASC, MBRFC, NRCS, NCDC, U of AZ, TX A&M, NASA, NOHRSC, U of NE and others.

  4. Results • Three working groups: Monitoring, Remote Sensing/Modeling and data integration • 5 Page White Paper for the White House National Drought Resilience Partnership • Will cover highlights from meeting including needs • Longer framework document with all 3 working groups that will suggest: • improvements to the current network • usability of the data • perhaps a pilot area to begin work

  5. Missouri River Basin Inter-Agency Proposal for an Expanded Plains Snow and Basin Conditions Network National Water and Climate Center - NRCS Hydrologic Engineering Center Thanks to Kevin Grode(USACE) for these slides

  6. Timeline • Mar-Apr (2012) – Project Initialization/Team Formation • Apr-Jul – Development of Initial Proposal/Framework • July 25 – Proposal Presented to MRBIR (Omaha, NE) • Jul-Sep – Refinement of Initial Proposal • September 18-19 – Face-to-Face Meeting (Bismarck, ND) • September 20 – Proposal idea Presented to MoRAST (Bismarck, ND) • Sep-Jan (2013) • Formation of Instrumentation and Inventory Sub-Team • Development of Instrumentation Recommendation • Refinement of Final Proposal • January 24 - Proposal Presented to MRBIR (Kansas City, MO) • Jan-Mar Proposal informally vetted through upper states • March 5-6 Proposal Presented to MoRAST (Rapid City, SD) • 2013 WRDA Bill - Section 508 by WY Senator • House and Senate passed bill but do not agree on a number of issues including MO Basin monitoring

  7. Technical Review Process • Inventory of existing federal, state and volunteer networks – climate, snowpack and soil moisture … leverage what is available. • Gap Assessment in monitoring, geographic areas and data acquired … what is missing? • Monitoring Recommendations to identify what will be needed to meet short-term and long-term forecasting and monitoring goals.

  8. Monitoring Proposal • Automated Measurements • Aerial Snow Surveys • Manual Snow Sampling

  9. Automated Measurements

  10. Aerial Snow Surveys

  11. Manual Snow Sampling USACE State of ND

  12. USACE Spring Snowmelt/Rainfall Runoff Modeling – End State NWS MBRFC Precipitation Observed Precipitation NWS/USACE Temperature Forecast Precipitation USACE HEC-HMS Snowmelt Runoff Models Observed Temperature NWS NOHRSC Snow Model USACE CRREL Snow Grid Forecast Temperature Current Snow Water Equivalent 10 cm 25 cm Current Soil Moisture 50 cm Current Soil NWS/NRCS/ State/USACE Soil Moisture 100 cm Current Soil

  13. Budget

  14. Long-Term Investment • Better understanding of basin … during flood, normal and drought conditions • Consistency throughout the basin regarding instrumentation, standards, QA/QC • Data collected real-time, quality controlled, archived and available to everyone

  15. Missouri River Basin Inter-Agency Proposal for an Expanded Plains Snow and Basin Conditions Network National Water and Climate Center - NRCS Hydrologic Engineering Center

  16. NIDIS Pilot for the Missouri Basin

  17. What is NIDIS? • NIDIS authorized in 2006 • Develop the leadership and networks to implement an integrated drought monitoring and forecasting system at federal, state, and local levels • Foster and support a research environment focusing on risk assessment, forecasting, and management • Create an "early warning system" for drought to provide accurate, timely, and integrated information • Develop interactive systems, such as the Web Portal, as part of the early warning system • Provide a framework for public awareness and education about droughts

  18. Drought and Water Resources: Federal Partnerships- no single agency can address the drought challenge on its own Research, Modeling & Assessments Observations/Monitoring NIDIS-Information Services in support of adaptation Adaptation & Mitigation Resource Risk Management 18

  19. Drought Early Warning? • Early warning: provision of timely and effective information, through identified institutions, that allows individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response-ISDR • A practical tool for implementing timely and appropriate responses to droughts and famine in the form of food aid and other mitigation strategies • Early warning involves forecasts based on climate projections and the area’s drought history, possible outcomes of developing drought events, and answering questions about how long a drought might last and how severe it might be. • Effective early warning systems should involve both technology and all interested parties in drought planning and response.

  20. Thanks