1 / 10

Enhancing Climate Predictions: Spatial and Temporal Downscaling Approaches

This study explores innovative methods for seasonal climate prediction at regional scales by employing spatial and temporal downscaling techniques. Research by Neil Ward highlights the importance of sea surface temperature (SST) indicators from the Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean for forecasting precipitation in Singapore. It investigates correlation skills in varying regions, such as Eastern Equatorial Africa and Central Europe, demonstrating the efficacy of multiple regression forecasting. The findings indicate that downscaling improves local forecasts, leading to better predictions of rainfall sequences and streamflow distributions.

naif
Télécharger la présentation

Enhancing Climate Predictions: Spatial and Temporal Downscaling Approaches

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Realizing Additional Climate Predictability through Spatial and Temporal Downscaling http://ccnmtl.columbia.edu/projects/climate/ Seasonal Climate Prediction for Regional Scales by Neil Ward

  2. cor=0.43 cor=0.58 3-month Number of Dry Days 3-month Rainfall Amount Time series for observed and forecasted number of dry days (left), and rainfall amount (right), with correlations of 0.433and 0.585, respectively. Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean SST for Aug-Sep-Oct was the “predictor” for concurrent (Aug-Sep-Oct) precipitation at a station in Singapore.

  3. Mar- Apr May ↔ Freq Amt Skill Comparison: Amount (left) vs. Freq of dry Day (right) Aug- Sep- Oct ↔ Amt Freq

  4. Eastern Equatorial Africa, Oct-Nov-Dec. Correlation Skill = 0.74 Central Europe, Jan-Feb-Mar. Correlation Skill = 0.06

  5. independent forecasting training Multiple regression forecasts for Eastern Africa, for OND. Predictors are two rotated EOFs of SST. After Mutai et al, 1998, Int. J. of Climatol. independent forecasting training

  6. How downscaling can help make local forecasts better

  7. Effects of spatial resolution on topographic detail grid grid

  8. Temporal Downscaling Dynamical downscaling can produce more realistic daily rainfall sequences Here we see model output for Jul-Aug-Sep for Senegal, West Africa, for a dry year (1983) and a wet year (1975).

  9. De Souza Filho and Lall (2002) Predictions of probability distribution of streamflow into Oros reservoir in north- eastern Brazil using two SST indices as predictors: (1) east-central tropical Pac- ific and (2) tropical Atlantic. Observations and marginal (climatological) distribu- tions are shown. Predictions are for calendar year totals, from previous July.

More Related