Conflict and Cooperation

1. Conflict and Cooperation Lecture 26

2. Poverty, Politics and Conflict • Politics is “Who Gets What:” Competition for Resources in an Environment of Scarcity. • As Resources Become Increasingly Scarce, Competition Becomes More Acute. • This is Kaplan’s Point in The Coming Anarchy: • The Combination of Rising Population and Environmental Degradation will Drive Conflict • Shocks Caused by International Economic System Can Reduce Incomes, Raise Poverty, and Drive Conflict (Yugoslavia, Rwanda, Congo).

3. Conflict • Conflict Most Likely When: • Distribution of Income/Wealth is Highly Uneven • Political Systems Institutionalize this Inequality. • Unequal Distribution of Income Between Groups Within Developing Societies • Non-Democratic Systems in Developing Countries Institutionalize these Inequalities • Unequal Distribution of Income Between the Core and the Periphery. • The Power-Based Nature of the International State System Institutionalizes these Inequalities. • Conflict Within Societies and Conflict Between Actors in the Core and the Periphery. • http://discover.npr.org/features/feature.jhtml?wfId=863202

4. What to Do? • Raise Incomes in Developing Countries. • Slow the Rate of Population Growth (Demographic Transition) • Create Incentives for Sustainable Resource Use • Two Problems with this Solution. • Not Easily Achieved • Even if Successful, Still Have 8-12 Billion People.

5. 1992: Rio Agreement; No Binding Targets 1995: Berlin: Binding Targets, But LDCs Exempted 1996: Clinton Administration Changes Policy, Endorses Enforceable Emission Cap 1997: Kyoto Protocol: Industrialized Countries Cut Emissions by 5.2% Below 1990 Levels by 2008-12 2000: Hague Summit: Translate Kyoto Protocol Into Enforceable Treaty. The Summit Fails. March 2001: Bush Announces U.S. Will Not Move Forward with Kyoto. November 2001: 178 Countries Reach Final Agreement in Marrakesh. Agreement Must Be Ratified; Japan Reluctant To Do So. International Cooperation: The Case of Global Warming

6. Why Did U.S. Pull Out of the Process? The United States The European Union

7. Cost to United States as World’s Largest Emitter • Reduce Overall US GDP by $100-250 billion annually (in 1987 dollars) • Equal to About $1,000 per person. • Job Losses from 520,000 to 1.1 million per year, depending upon scale of reductions. • Magnitude of these Costs Might Be Questioned, But Direction is Correct.

8. What About Developing Countries? • Congress Asks, “Why are LDCs Exempted From Need to Cut Emissions?” • China Already World’s 2nd Largest Emitter. • China, India, Brazil, and Other LDCs Will Produce 85% of All Additional CO2 in Next 20 Years. • LDCs Not Willing to Accept Binding Targets; Too Costly For Development. • U.S. Congress Reluctant to Accept Global Warming Agreement that Exempts LDCs.

9. Broader Significance of Global Warming • Cooperation Requires Governments to Bear Costs in the Short Run in Order to Protect the Environment in the Long Run. • Many Governments Appear Unwilling to Bear these Short Run Costs. • U.S. Resists the Negative Impact on Standard of Living. • Developing Countries Fear that Environmental Protection is Inconsistent with Rapid Economic Development.