Update on Asian Studies Related to Emissions and Modeling

1. Update on Asian Studies Related to Emissions and Modeling Gregory R. Carmichael Department of Chemical & Biochemical Engineering Center for Global & Regional Environmental Research and the University of Iowa

2. Topics Reported • Recent advances in emissions estimates • Long-term sulfur deposition calculation • Update on model intercomparison study • Completed passive sampler pilot project

6. The TRACE-P/Ace-Asia emission inventory shows the important sources of each type of air pollutant in Asia

7. Seasonality of emissions of the different species has been studied for China Mainly evaporation- related species Mainly combustion- related species

8. This is an example of TRACE-P SO2 emissions at 30 sec. resolution for the Pearl River Delta Boxed area ~ 150 km x 150 km Guangzhou Zhongshan Shenzhen Macau/Zhuhai Hong Kong 30 sec = ~ 0.7 km

9. Biomass burning treatment combines country survey data with AVHRR analysis to give long-term average or “typical” burning amounts

10. Comparison of country surveys with various AVHRR fire-count adjustments reveals problem areas for further investigation Xinjiang Mongolia fire count > country surveys India fire count < country surveys Vietnam Indonesia It remains difficult to make the link between satellite observations of fire and atmospheric emissions

12. The Importance of Fossil, Biofuels and Open Burning Varies by Region

13. Uncertainty analysis has revealed wide differencesin our knowledge of the emissions of particularspecies in particular parts of Asia …

14. Distribution of Percent Primary Non-carbonaceous PM2.5 Emissions --How to distinguish from dust?

15. Pink – DUST; Brown-Blue BC

17. E90 E120 E150 Rishiri Tarukawa Sado Harbin Beijing Tsukuba Hachijo N30 Qingdao Shanghai Ogasawara Nagasaki & Fukue Okinawa Fukuoka Amami E.Q.

18. We have analyzed sulfur deposition in Asia over last 25 yrs SULFUR EMISSIONS IN ASIA ARE CHANGING, REGION BY REGION, IN DIFFERENT WAYS

20. Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships Interannual Variability (10-yrs)

21. Effect of Interannual Meteorological Variability on Sulfur Deposition can be Much Larger than Changes in Emissions! Is there climate feedback link?

22. How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships? • Need to assess inter-model variability. • The MICS-ASIA Study: Model InterComparison • of Long-Range Transport and Sulfur Deposition in • EastAsia Many different models with important similarities and differences:Lagrangian, Eulerian, Hybrid, etc.

23. Participant(s) Organization Model name Model type Main model focus S.-B. Kim, T.-Y. Lee, K-Y. Ma Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea) YU-SADM (Yonsei Univ.-Sulfur Acid Dep. Model) 3D Eulerian Long-term period or episodic estimation of sulfur sources contributions H. Hayami, Y. Ichikawa CRIEPI (Japan) CRIEPI trajectory model Lagrangian 1-layer Long-term evaluation H. Hayami, O. Hertel, Y. Ichikawa CRIEPI (Japan) and National Env. Research Institute (Denmark) ACDEP ASIA Lagrangian 1-layer Long-term evaluation I. Uno, E.S. Jang Research Institute for Applied Mech., Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka (Japan) RIAM version of RAMS on-line tracer model 3D Eulerian Episodic and long-term simulation for chemical climate studies Y. Ikeda, R. Yasuda, H. Nakaminami Osaka Prefecture University (Japan) OPU-Model (Osaka Prefecture Univ.) 3D Eulerian Long-term deposition S.Y. Cho, G. Carmichael CGRER, University of Iowa STEM 3D Eulerian Episodic and long-term studies G. Calori, G. Carmichael CGRER, University of Iowa ATMOS-2 Lagrangian multi-layer Long-term conc. and depositions of sulfur in Asia. Source-receptor relationships. M. Engardt Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute MATCH 3D Eulerian Long-term concentrations and depositions of ozone and acidifying substances

24. Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships Inter-model Variability

25. Passive Sampler Network – one way to increase coverage and participation

26. SO2 Results – Annual Averages

27. NH3 Results – Annual Averages

28. NH3/SO2 Ratios – Annual Averages

29. O3 Results – Annual Averages

30. http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/people/carmichael/GURME/GURME.htmlhttp://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/people/carmichael/GURME/GURME.html

31. On-going Activities • Continued needs to improve emission estimates • Follow-on activities related to model inter-comparison • Interest in expanding base-line measurements – e.g., ABC study • Closer linkages between urban/regional/global scales and health,air quality, climate communities • WMO-GURME

32. Analysis Framework Climate : Air Quality

35. Urban Environments are Key Drivers of Change

36. Percentage contribution to total sulfur deposition due to SO2 emissions from megacities and major urban centers in Asia, averaged over the period of 1975-2000

37. Estimated Source-Receptor Relations for Nitrate

39. Propane data from Blake et al.

40. Biomass burning treatment combines country survey data with AVHRR analysis to give long-term average or “typical” burning amounts Original two-year daily fire count data for 1999-2000

41. Nitrate Deposition is of Growing Importance % of Total Deposition as Nitrate

42. Speciation of NMVOC reveals great differencesamong countries with different levels ofeconomic development

44. Comparison with monitoring data for the 11-20 January period.

45. … and converted them into appropriate profiles for China for the three different emission layers (both January and July)

46. Transboundary Pollution Issues are of Growing Importance S-Deposition RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et al., (2001)

47. Transboundary Pollution Issues are of Growing Importance S-Deposition RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et al., (2001)

48. The Emissions Vary Greatly by Region – Reflecting Many Social/Economic Factors

49. We studied hourly profiles of emissions for different source types …