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Forest Fever: Using Dengue to Explore the Mathematics of Ecology, Epidemiology and Evolution

This study examines the relationship between dengue fever and its impact on ecology, epidemiology, and evolution. It delves into the differences between epidemic and endemic dengue, the likelihood of new virus emergence, and the factors affecting disease transmission and prevalence. Mathematical models, including differential equations and agent-based models, are used to analyze the data. The study also explores the role of the commensal bacterium Wolbachia in reducing transmission rates.

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Forest Fever: Using Dengue to Explore the Mathematics of Ecology, Epidemiology and Evolution

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  1. Forest Fever: Using Dengue to Explore the Mathematics of Ecology, Epidemiology and Evolution RuijinZhao, Namyong Lee, Laura Aldrich-Wolfe

  2. DENV as epidemic vs. endemic Why?Likelihood of new DENV emergence

  3. What is a (RNA) virus anyway?

  4. Dengue Fever Cases with Metadata from Virus Pathogen Resource (VIPR) http://www.viprbrc.org/brc/epiSrcTypeData.do?dataSet=Cases%20DF&typeCvt=1283&decorator=flavi&srcCvt=1304

  5. Commensal bacterium Wolbachia may reduce transmission rates by shortening female life span How? Why? • Nature • 476, • 450–453 • (25 August 2011) • doi:10.1038/nature10355

  6. Some basic questions • How does disease transmission vary with incubation rate? • Who is at greatest risk of developing Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) and why? • What environmental or social factors correlate with prevalence of Dengue Fever? (Data acquisition (Search) and visualization (Gapminder))

  7. Mathematical Models • Differential equations models • Stochastic models • Difference equations models • Agent-based models

  8. Acknowledgments • NIMBioS • SCALE-IT • BioQUEST • Dr. John Jungck

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