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Methodology to Identify Valleys of Opportunity for Cooperation Mechanisms in EU

Methodology to Identify Valleys of Opportunity for Cooperation Mechanisms in EU. Francesco Dalla Longa Tjaša Bole-Rentel, Paul van den Oosterkamp, Karina Veum. IEE Project Res4less www.res4less ECN. RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid. Outline. Theory: Problem statement

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Methodology to Identify Valleys of Opportunity for Cooperation Mechanisms in EU

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  1. Methodology to Identify Valleys of Opportunity for Cooperation Mechanisms in EU Francesco Dalla Longa Tjaša Bole-Rentel, Paul van den Oosterkamp, Karina Veum IEE Project Res4less www.res4less ECN RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  2. Outline • Theory: • Problem statement • Conceptual methodology • Implementation • How the model works: • Global analysis • Pair-wise analysis • (Preliminary) Results • Conclusions: • Recap • Discussion PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid 2

  3. Outline • Theory: • Problem statement • Conceptual methodology • Implementation PART 1 • How the model works: • Global analysis • Pair-wise analysis • (Preliminary) Results • Conclusions: • Recap • Discussion PART 2 PART 3 RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid 3

  4. Problem Statement Surplus Potential: potential for deployment of RES over and above RES obligations Valley of Opportunity: readily exploitable fraction of surplus potential how to identify VoOs? • EU27+NO  756 pairs • specific constraints / limitations • cooperation mechanisms need a method to systematically scan through all the possibilities RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  5. Conceptual methodology MS-2 MS-1 costs (€/kWh) L1 surplus potential potential (kWh) RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  6. Conceptual methodology MS-2 MS-1 costs (€/kWh) Candidate VoO? L1 surplus potential potential (kWh) RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid 6

  7. Conceptual methodology MS-2 MS-1 costs (€/kWh) L1 surplus potential potential (kWh) RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  8. Conceptual methodology MS-2 MS-1 costs (€/kWh) L1 surplus potential potential (kWh) RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid 8

  9. Conceptual methodology MS-2 MS-1 costs (€/kWh) L1 surplus potential potential (kWh) RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid 9

  10. Conceptual methodology MS-2 MS-1 costs (€/kWh) L1 potential (kWh) RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid 10

  11. Conceptual methodology MS-2 MS-1 costs (€/kWh) L1 surplus potential potential (kWh) RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid 11

  12. Conceptual methodology MS-2 MS-1 costs (€/kWh) L2 L1 surplus potential potential (kWh) RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  13. Conceptual methodology MS-2 MS-1 L2 = equilibrium price = MS-2 cost savings = MS-1 profit P1 = amount of surplus used costs (€/kWh) L2 L1 surplus potential potential (kWh) P1 RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  14. Conceptual methodology MS-2 MS-1 costs (€/kWh) Candidate VoO After Economic Eonstraints L2 L1 surplus potential potential (kWh) RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  15. Pros & cons • Accurate for direct electricity sale, statistical transfer and TCGs • Quantitative • Easy to model • Does not include all possible cooperation mechanisms • Case studies still necessary RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  16. Implementation • Sectors: - Start with Electricity • - (Possibly add Heating/Cooling later) • Costs: - LPC, no effect of country-specific policies • Data: - RESolve-E model • - (RESolve-H/C model) • Targets: - NREAP production forecasts • Years: - 2010, 2015, 2020, (2030) RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  17. Implementation • Technologies: • - One by one <--> All at once • Multiple countries: • - Pairs <--> Regions <--> EU wind biomass sun RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  18. Outline • Theory: • Problem statement • Conceptual methodology • Implementation • How the model works: • Global analysis • Pair-wise analysis • (Preliminary) Results • Conclusions: • Recap • Discussion PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid 18

  19. model flow scheme Technology potentials Technology costs Targets Pair-wise module 28 x 28 x 4 matrix of candidate VoOs Global module Cost supply curves Surpluses optimum use of surplus 3 global indicators RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  20. model flow scheme Technology potentials Technology costs Targets Pair-wise module 28 x 28 x 4 matrix of candidate VoOs Global module Cost supply curves Surpluses optimum use of surplus 3 global indicators RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  21. Cost supply curves & targets RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  22. Surplus potential host user RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  23. model flow scheme Technology potentials Technology costs Targets Pair-wise module 28 x 28 x 4 matrix of candidate VoOs Global module Cost supply curves Surpluses optimum use of surplus 3 global indicators RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  24. Output 2020: Global Analysis RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  25. model flow scheme Technology potentials Technology costs Targets Pair-wise module 28 x 28 x 4 matrix of candidate VoOs Global module Cost supply curves Surpluses optimum use of surplus 3 global indicators RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  26. 2020 Spain Cost Supply Curve RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  27. Spain as Host Country in 2020 Equilibrium Price [€ct/kWh] Used Surplus [%] User Savings [M€] Spain’s Profit [M€] RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  28. 2020 Portugal Cost Supply Curve RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  29. Portugal as User Country in 2020 Market Price [€ct/kWh] Used Surplus [%] User Savings [M€] Spain’s Profit [M€] RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  30. Output 2020: VoOs Examples Spain  Portugal France  Portugal Onshore Wind ~10 TWh Offshore Wind ~800 GWh CSP ~300 GWh RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  31. Outline • Theory: • Problem statement • Conceptual methodology • Implementation • How the model works: • Global analysis • Pair-wise analysis • (Preliminary) Results • Conclusions: • Recap • Discussion PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid 31

  32. Conclusions #1 • Preliminary results in agreement expectations • Work in progress... wind biomass sun RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  33. Conclusions #2 • Surplus potential & VoO • Quantitative methodology to identify candidate VoO • RES 4 Less “satellite” model • Preliminary results in agreement with expectations RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  34. Acknowledgements • RES 4 Less ECN team: • Paul van den Oosterkamp • Tjasa Bole-Rentel • Karina Veum • RES 4 Less Ciemat Team • RESolve-E update helpers: • Joost van Stralen • Tjasa Bole-Rentel • Lachlan Cameron • Rodrigo Rivera-Tinoco • Paul Vethman RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  35. Gracias por su atención! For any comments or questions please contact Francesco Dalla Longa (dalla@ecn.nl) Tjaša Bole-Rentel (bole@ecn.nl)

  36. Discussion • Technologies: • - One by one <--> All at • once • Multiple countries: • - Pairs <--> Regions <--> EU • Sectors: - Start with Electricity • - (Possibly add Heating/Cooling later) • Costs: - LPC, no effect of country- specific policies • Data: - RESolve-E model • - (RESolve-H/C model) • Targets: - NREAP demand • Years: - 2010, 2015, 2020, (2030) RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

  37. Output 2020: Global Analysis RES 4 Less Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, Madrid

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