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S tochastic E mpirical L oading and D ilution M odel (SELDM) Development Project

S tochastic E mpirical L oading and D ilution M odel (SELDM) Development Project. FHWA-USGS Overlapping Missions. USGS. FHWA.

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S tochastic E mpirical L oading and D ilution M odel (SELDM) Development Project

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  1. Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM)Development Project

  2. FHWA-USGS Overlapping Missions USGS FHWA To develop and disseminate skills, tools, and information, that help Federal, State, and local agencies make environmental stewardship decisions in the most efficient and economical manner possible.

  3. USGS: A Unique Partner • An Earth science agency: No regulatory mission • Impartial/Neutral: Results accepted by regulatory agencies • Works with DOTs, regulators, and/or natural resource agencies in every state • Works with the FHWA, USEPA, USACE, NRCS, FWS, and other DOI agencies at the national & regional level • Long-term cooperation with FHWA on hydrology, hydraulics, bridge scour, water quality and land use • National Streamflow and Water-Quality Databases • Publications Warehouse

  4. FHWA Studies: Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) • Stochastic—Uses Monte Carlo methods to create a sample of events representing combinations of flows loads and concentrations • Empirical—Based on data and statistics rather than pure theory • Loading—Provides storm and annual loads • Dilution—Mixing of upstream and highway indicates chance of exceeding a standard http://ma.water.usgs.gov/fhwa/SELDM.htm

  5. Decision-Making Applications • National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) • Environmental Assessments (EAs) • Findings of No Significant Impact (FONSIs) • Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) • National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) • Development of Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDL) • What if? • Sensitivity analysis

  6. Supports FHWA’s Environmental Decision-Making Process Ecoregion/ Rain Zone • First Step: Regional Inputs • Hydrologic Similarity • Ecoregions: pre-storm flow, precipitation, QW • Rain Zones: precipitation • Second Step: Nearby Sites • Hydrologic Similarity • Proximity • Third Step: User-Defined Statistics from Data Collected On Site • Expensive • Delays: one or more years of data collection Nearby Site(s) User Defined Analysis/ Analyte

  7. Stream Analysis: Simplified Schematic Diagram of Mass Balance Approach Flows, Concentrations, and Loads: • By Event • By “Year”

  8. Stochastic Example: Upstream Runoff • Precipitation • Min: 0.1” • Avg: 0.67 • Rv (TIA 0.01%) • Avg: 0.129 • SD: 0.099 • Skew: 1.08 • Streamflow: • GMean: 0.72 • GSD: 2.63 • GSkew: 0.71

  9. Flow Chart Documentation Analyst Project Analysis Site and Region Highway Grid Ecoregion Upstream Basin Hydrology Rv Streamflow Precipitation Lake Basin Water Quality Highway Upstream Downstream BMP Run Analysis

  10. “Eco-Logical” SELDM Uses Ecoregions for Hydrologic Similarity • Climate • Geology • Soils • Physiography • Vegetation • Land Use • Ecology U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2003, Level III ecoregions of the continental United States: Washington, D.C., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, 1 pl. (available at http://www.epa.gov/wed/pages/ecoregions/level_iii.htm)

  11. Products: KTRLine Regression Software • Robust Regression • USGS Standard Method • Used For: • Background Water Quality • Highway Runoff Quality • Runoff Coefficients • Imperviousness • Streamflow

  12. Products: Upstream Water Quality FHWA-HEP-09-003 • Software for data mining from 24,581 USGS surface-water-quality monitoring stations • Water Quality Statistics by Ecoregion • Analysis of SSC, TP & Hardness • Pulled 1,876,000 samples for 23 different water-quality constituents

  13. Products: Highway Runoff Database FHWA-HEP-09-004 • Calculates SELDM statistics • Runoff coefficient equation • SSC vs TSS • Highway runoff data • 117 Sites • 192 Constituents • 4,126 Storms • 54, 384 EMC’s (With New MADOT Data)

  14. Products: Streamflow Software USGS OFR 2008-1362 • Data mining from USGS NWIS Web • Analysis of regional data • Developing local estimates • Obtaining at-site data

  15. Products: Stormflow FHWA-HEP-09-005 • Streamflow from 2,783 USGS gaging stations • Precipitation from 2,610 NWS gaging stations • Runoff coefficients from 306 sites with 6,142 storm events

  16. Products: SELDM Web Page http://ma.water.usgs.gov/FHWA/SELDM.htm • Explanation of project • 1990 Model files • Links to all published products • Beta Test files • Links to NDAMS

  17. Questions? http://ma.water.usgs.gov

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