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International Politics Week 3: Civil War

Explore the impact of political regimes on civil war, the role of the international system, and the characteristics of violent political organizations. Discover where civil wars break out and how peace can be achieved. Learn how UN Peacekeeping and foreign aid play a role in post-war reconstruction.

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International Politics Week 3: Civil War

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  1. International Politics Week 3:Civil War Instructor: James Raymond Vreeland, Professor 2.0

  2. Overview of today’s readings: • “Second image reversed” • Impact of the international system on domestic conflict “technology of rebellion” • Structure of domestic organization • Characteristics of “violent political organizations” associated with the participation of women • Where does civil war break out? • When they end, where does peace last? • UN Peacekeeping goes to tough cases, and help • Foreign aid can help democratizing states • Does not help in strategically important and/or resource-rich states

  3. First: Some discussion of the role of Political Regime

  4. The Return of Goldilocks in: Civil War and the Three Regimes! By Jimmy Ray

  5. Once upon a time, Goldilocks asked her Three Bear friends, "Bear friends, what kind of political regime is most likely to suffer from civil war?"

  6. "Not autocracies!" shouted Papa Bear. "They're too hard!" Goldilocks agreed, "Autocracies must repress civil war."

  7. "Well, not democracies either, dear," rejoined Mama Bear. "They're too soft." Again, Goldilocks agreed, "Democracies can accommodate civil conflict peacefully."

  8. "Civil wars are most likely in anocracies!" exclaimed Baby Bear. "They're just right!" "Yes," Goldilocks reasoned, "by default, civil war must be more likely in the middle."

  9. "Anocracy leads to civil war," they said all together.

  10. Late that night, while the Bears were asleep, Goldilocks sneaked back into the Bears' home with a basket. True to her thieving nature, she stole the Bears' data on political regimes and took all of their codebooks!

  11. Wherever she went, Goldilocks spread her message of anocracies and civil war. But one day, she came upon the Big Bad Wolf! The Big Bad Wolf asked, "Whatcha got for me?" Goldilocks whimpered and finally whispered meekly, "I've got a correlation..."

  12. "What's the correlation, Goldie?" said the Big Bad Wolf.

  13. "Well," replied Goldilocks, "Civil war is most likely under anocratic political regimes." "Anocratic?! $&@#!?? What the heck does anocratic mean?" growled the Big Bad Wolf.

  14. The Big Bad Wolf grew impatient! He grabbed the basket from Goldilocks and began to devour the data and the pages of the codebook! "Aha!" blurted the Big Bad Wolf after a moment. "I found it!" "Here's what anocracies are..." The Big Bad Wolf read aloud slowly, as if stunned by the words in the codebook. "Anocracies are countries that are suffering from political violence or civil war..."

  15. Goldilocks gasped! And the Big Bad Wolf snarled at her with his big bad teeth. "Civil wars are more likely where there is political violence?!?

  16. “You better tell people to use a measure of political regime that does NOT mix in political violence!" The Big Bad Wolf looked terribly frightening as he pronounced his instructions. "Well, I will spread the message to all I meet," Goldilocks announced.

  17. "And tell all you meet," added the Big Bad Wolf, "if they use the mixed up measure, I'll find them and eat them up!"

  18. Goldilocks was persuaded. She never used the mixed up data again to study civil war. Goldilocks, the Big Bad Wolf, and the Three Bears all lived happily ever after. And Goldilocks spread the word.

  19. The End?See: http://www9.georgetown.edu/faculty/jrv24/goldindex.html#above

  20. Take-aways • Political regime does not appear to impact where civil war breaks out • The type of civil war that breaks out depends, in part, on the international system • The Cold War facilitated asymmetric, “irregular” civil wars • Post-Cold War: conventional and symmetric non-conventional warfare (poorly armed/trained militias) • Violent political organizations take on different forms and recruit different types of combatants (demand-side factors) • Women more likely to participate: terrorist organizations, forced recruitment, gender ideology, non-religious fundamentalist • Peace after civil war more likely: • military victory (instead of stalemate) • ethnic homogeneity (instead of divisions) • lower death tolls, longer wars • Given that they choose “hard” cases, UN Peacekeeping seems to help • Foreign aid can help democratizing states • Does not help in strategically important and/or resource-rich states

  21. Thank you

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