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This Transmission Adequacy Assessment, conducted by ISO-NE, NGRID, and NSTAR, evaluates the impact of Salem Harbor generation on the reliability of the North Shore and Boston Import Area from 2003 to 2012. It identifies critical deficiencies if Salem units are unavailable, assesses operating capacity and un-served energy, and forecasts summer peak loads. Results show that retaining Salem Harbor generation is essential for maintaining reliability. Recommended long-term and interim measures for addressing deficiencies include transmission enhancements and load shedding strategies.
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Purpose • ISO-NE, NGRID and NSTAR conducted an Transmission Adequacy Assessment of bulk electric system reliability in the North Shore and the Boston Import Area* for 2003 through 2012 to assess the dependence on Salem Harbor Generation • Identified resulting deficiencies if Salem Harbor units were unavailable. * Boston Import Area includes North Shore (NGRID) and most of Boston Edison and Cambridge Electric
Transmission Adequacy Assessment • The Transmission Adequacy Assessment found two facets of dependence: • “Operating Capacity” - reserves needed to cover the loss of the largest unit or worst transmission contingency • “Un-served Energy” – Amount of load deficiency calculated using existing generation resources and transmission imports
Methodology • Operating Capacity calculated per NEPOOL PP3, OP19 & NPCC A2 criteria, considered most severe of largest generator or transmission facility (extended outage), in addition to an average amount of capacity (sudden forced outage) • Un-served Energy calculated as the area load minus generations resources minus transmission imports • Reference and High Demand respectively bracket the minimum and maximum capacity deficiencies • Summer peak loads forecast for 2003 through 2012 • These assessments also considered: • The existing system • The retirement of New Boston 1 when Mystic 9 becomes available (2004) • Proposed NGRID North Shore upgrades (Package 2) in service by Summer 2006
Summary of Results Boston Import Area & North Shore resources are needed 2003-2012 to: • Provide capacity to satisfy Operating Reserve requirements for both: • North Shore • Boston Import Area • Provide Must Run generation to reliability serve load to: • North Shore
Analysis Results: Salem Harbor 1-4 Removed From Service 2003-2012
Boston Import Area Operating Capacity Deficiency for Peak Hour
Analysis Results: Salem Harbor 1-3 (Coal Units) Removed From Service 2003-2012
Analysis Results: Salem Harbor 4 (Oil Unit) Removed From Service 2003-2012
Conclusions • All of the Salem Harbor generation is needed to ensure both North Shore and Boston Import Area reliability, unless new resources are added or transmission improvements are made. • Area of greatest requirement/deficiency if Salem Harbor unavailable: • 2003-2005 – North Shore • 2006-2012 – both North Shore and Boston Import Area
Mitigating Measures • Long-term – North Shore and Boston Import Area transmission enhancement • New 345 kV transmission across NEMA-Boston & Boston Import interfaces • New transmission within Boston Import Area, including North Shore • Integrated solution to address regional needs • Interim Alternatives for Consideration • Boston Import Area and/or North Shore measures • Retain some/all Salem Harbor generation • Replacement generation (“base-load” and reserves) • Pre & Post contingency Load Shedding • Boston Import Area measures • Connect Mystic 4-6 to Mystic 345 kV (relieve short circuit concerns) • Retain New Boston 1 • System modifications to allow temporary Dewar St. load shift to SEMA • Add Phase Angle Regulator and close Dewar St. to N. Quincy 115 kV • Additional short term North Shore transmission modifications?