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Understanding Global Population Dynamics and the Demographic Transition

This chapter explores the global distribution of populations, including the causes and consequences of population change. It examines the Malthusian argument and its critiques, the characteristics of demographic and economic transitions, and the implications of historical trends such as the baby boom. Insights into fertility and mortality rates highlight the stark differences between developing and developed nations, addressing the ongoing challenges of population growth. The chapter also critiques the Demographic Transition Theory and offers perspectives on future population trends.

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Understanding Global Population Dynamics and the Demographic Transition

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  1. Chapter 3 Population • Describe global population distribution • Examine causes and consequences of population change • To understand the Malthusian argument • To describe demographic and economic characteristics of a population • To understand the Demographic Transition • To describe the baby boom • Understanding economic migration

  2. Population Explodes after the Industrial Revolution

  3. Population Density

  4. Population Growth over Time and Space • World population growth is slowing • Still adding ca. 80 million per year • Most in developing countries • Some countries are losing population (Russia, E. Europe, coming in Japan) • Forces affecting population change ∆P = BR – DR + I – O or ∆P = NGR +NMR

  5. Fertility & Mortality: in 2002:US crude birthrate = 15/1000,crude death rate = 9/1000, natural growth rate = 6/1000 or 0.6%

  6. Malthusian Theory • Assumed that human populations would continue to grow geometrically • And assumed that food production would grow arithmetically, due to diminishing marginal returns (or less than arithmetically) arithmetic Diminishing returns Output Inputs

  7. Malthus’ Expectations & Reality • Failed to see impact of Industrial Revolution on Food production • Failed to see the opening of new lands • (especially in the new world) • Failed to anticipate falling fertility rates

  8. Neo-Malthusians: The Club of Rome and The Limits to Growth

  9. Demographic Transition Theory • Based on Western European & North American History

  10. Stages in Demographic Transition Theory • Stage 1: Preindustrial Society – high and unstable birth & death rates, population growth rate slow, importance of children, low life expectancy • Stage 2: Early Industrial Society - high birth rates, falling death rate, high population growth • Stage 3: Late Industrial Society – low death rate, falling birth rate, high population growth • Stage 4: Post Industrial Society – low birth and death rates, low population growth

  11. Geography of Birth RatesStrongly correlated with level of economic development

  12. Geography of Death RatesEvidence of Demographic Transition?

  13. Shifting Causes of Death • Stage 1 – Poor Health Care • Stage 2 – Lower infant mortality rates with better diet and improvements in health care (Figure 3.18) • Stage 3 – similar to Stage 2 • Stage 4 – Few deaths from infectious diseases, more from social malaise (Figures 3.21 and 3.22). Some countries below ZPG

  14. Contrasts between Malthus and the Demographic Transition • Fertility is socially constructed, not taken for granted • Population does not grow uncontrollably, but rather stabilizes at a slow growth rate as birth and death rates fall • However, absolute population growth is still large (ca. 80 million per annum) due to the large base (current 6+ billion) • Total future population depends on fertility rate trends in less developed regions (Figure 3.28)

  15. Criticisms of Demographic Transition Theory • Based on Western societies (Europe, North America, Japan) • Not inevitable that there will be a fall in fertility rates in less developed countries • Even with dramatically lowered fertility rates • We cannot predict the length of time it will take these countries to move from Stages 2 and 3 to Stage 4 (if they do)

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