1 / 10

WGCEP/NSHMP Fault Rupture Models

1. Type-B Faults MoRate from slip rate M char from M(A) 67% MoRate in M char (full fault ruptures) 33% MoRate in GR-Dist between M 6.5 and M char (higher M char ---> lower rates). WGCEP/NSHMP Fault Rupture Models. Type-A Faults

noble-parker
Télécharger la présentation

WGCEP/NSHMP Fault Rupture Models

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. 1 • Type-B Faults • MoRate from slip rate • Mchar from M(A) • 67% MoRate in Mchar (full fault ruptures) • 33% MoRate in GR-Dist between M 6.5 and Mchar • (higherMchar ---> lower rates) WGCEP/NSHMP Fault Rupture Models Type-A Faults Segment & allow both single- and multi-segment ruptures Mrup from M(A); also gives implied ave slip Get rupture rates by satisfying slip rates and mean recurrence intervals

  2. 2 • If S segments, then R=S(S+1)/2 different ruptures involving contiguous segments. • We want the long-term rate (fr) of each rth rupture. • We know for each segment: Slip Rate (vs); Mean Recur Int (Ts=1/s) • Constraints are: • Equation Set (1) • Equation Set (2) • Equation Set (3) • Positivity • where Dsr is the average slip in the rth rupture on the sth segment, and Gsr is a matrix indicating whether the rth rupture involves the sth segment (1 if so, 0 if not). Type-A Fault Rupture Models

  3. 3 Adj Params (logic-tree Branches)

  4. 4 Using Ellsworth-B M(A):

  5. 5 Using Somerville (2006) M(A):

  6. Current WGCEP Solution 6 Ellsworth B M(A) & Tapered slip model:

  7. Current WGCEP Solution 7 Somerville M(A) & Tapered slip model:

  8. Define the following “a-priori” rupture rate models that solve (equation set 2): Current WGCEP Solution Minimum Rate Solution - That which minimizes the total rate of ruptures (and therefore maximizes event magnitudes), consistent with obs, and with branch weight of ~10%. Maximum Rate Solution - That which maximizes the total rate of ruptures (and therefore minimizes event magnitudes), consistent with obs, and with branch weight of ~10%. Geological Insight Solution(s) - Those that makes all fr as close as possible to preferred, complete sets defined by geologists, consistent with obs. (These don’t span solution space, but should span hazard/loss space?)

  9. Choose an “a-priori” rupture rate model that solves equation set (2) (min-rate, max-rate, or a geol-insight model) • Choose an assumed Dsr from the following: • Dsr = Ds(“Characteristic Slip”; e.g., WGCEP-1995) • Dsrproportional tovs(WGCEP-2002 Slip) • Dsr = Dr(Uniform/Boxcar) • Dsr- Tapered Ends (Elliptical) • If “Characteristic Slip” not chosen above, choose a Mag-Area Relationship: • Ellsworth A (WGCEP-2002) • Ellsworth B (WGCEP-2002) • Hanks and Bakun (2002) • Somerville (2006), which is ~ Wells & Coppersmith (1994) • Also choose: Deformation model; whether Aseismic Slip Factor reduces area or slip rate; and Gaussian-MFD sigma and trunc level (same for all ruptures) • Solve for final, moment-balanced rupture rates … Current WGCEP Solution

More Related