Return On Luck Great By Choice Ch 7

1. John Beddington Scott Bearden Patrick Lewis Lauren Frick Trevor McDonald Return On LuckGreat By Choice Ch 7

2. Thunder Mountain, Alaska (May 1999) • Malcolm Daly and Jim Donini • First climbers to attempt to reach summit • Almost made it to the top • Something gave way • Fell several hundred feet • Crippled his legs • Donini attempted self-rescue • Descended 3,000 ft to base camp • Waved down friend Paul Roderick of Talkeetna Air Taxi • Saved further time, able to reach ranger station quicker • Rescue was organized • Hours saved proved pivotal • Beat storm that would last for 12 days

3. Luck vs. Skill • Role of luck • The bad • Slipped on mountain, fell over 100 ft • The good • Sliced rope not cut all the way through • Survived fall • Donini found friend Paul, flew to station • Daly prepared well in advance • Physical training • Mental training • “Decision to live” • Chose people he knew he could trust • People who would risk their life for him • Luck did not save him in the end, people did

4. What is Luck? • A luck event has to meet three criteria • Some significant aspect of the event occurs largely or entirely independent of the actions of the key actors in the enterprise • The event has a potentially significant consequence (good or bad) • The event has some element of unpredictability

5. Does Luck Matter? • The study showed: • 10X companies did not generally get more good luck • 10X companies did not generally have less bad luck • 10X companies did not get their good luck earlier than other companies • 10X companies cannot be explained by a single giant luck spike

6. Views On Luck • One view • Luck is the primary cause of 10X success • Other view • Luck plays no role in 10X success • Neither view is supported by any concrete evidence • The critical question is not “Are you lucky?” but “Do you get a high return on Luck?”

7. Four Possible Return On Luck Scenarios • Great return on good luck • Poor return on good luck • Squandering luck • Great return on bad luck • Where 10Xers differentiate themselves • Poor return on bad luck • The one place no company wants to be

8. Outcome of ROL Scenarios • Good luck: a single stroke of good luck, no matter how good, cannot make a great company • Bad luck: a single detrimental event, or a chain of bad events, can halt a good company in their tracks

9. Keys From Past Chapters • Concepts from earlier in the book all contribute to having a good ROL • Level 5 ambition • Fanatic discipline • Empirical creativity • Productive paranoia • 20 Mile March • Fire bullets, then cannonballs • Leading above the death line

10. 10X leaders • Leaders of 10X companies often credit good luck as a portion of their success. But they never place the blame for their failures on bad luck

11. Unexpected Findings • Some non-10X companies had better luck than 10X companies • Many 10X companies had to deal with a lot of bad luck, but still managed to have a very good ROL • “Who Luck” the luck of finding the right partner, mentor, teammate, etc. is the most beneficial kind of luck

12. Luck is Not a Strategy • “Managing Luck” involves four aspects • Cultivating the ability to zoom out and recognize luck when it happens • Developing the wisdom to see when, and when not, to let luck change your plans • Being sufficiently well-prepared to endure the bad luck that will inevitably affect every company/industry • Creating a positive return on luck – both good or bad – when it comes

13. Trend in purchasing; away from normal paper books to online books on tablets, laptops, etc. • Created the Kindle, multiple styles, multiple price points, multiple sizes to appeal to everyone • Getting a good return on bad luck