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Which Underage Drinking Laws Have Been Effective?

Which Underage Drinking Laws Have Been Effective?. James C. Fell Senior Research Scientist Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation August 25, 2014. The Problem Young Drivers and Alcohol Graduated Driver Licensing Underage Drinking Minimum Legal Drinking Age 21 [MLDA-21] Background

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Which Underage Drinking Laws Have Been Effective?

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  1. Which Underage Drinking Laws Have Been Effective? James C. Fell Senior Research Scientist Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation August 25, 2014

  2. The Problem Young Drivers and Alcohol Graduated Driver Licensing Underage Drinking Minimum Legal Drinking Age 21 [MLDA-21] Background MLDA-21 Law Components Prior Research Current Research Methods Strengths of the MLDA-21 Laws Results of Current Research Should the MLDA Remain at 21?

  3. The Problem

  4. What are some of the leading causes of death for young people?

  5. Leading Causes of Death Ages 16-20: 2009

  6. Leading Causes of Death Ages 16-20: 2007

  7. Young Drivers and Alcohol The current problem and what is working to reduce their crash risk

  8. Young Drivers Aged 15-20 in 2012 More than one out of four (28%) deaths of young people aged 16-20 are from motor vehicle crashes. More than one out of five (22%) young drivers aged 15-20 involved in fatal crashes had been drinking. Almost three out of four (71%) young drinking drivers killed in crashes were not wearing safety belts. Half (50%) of the underage 21 drinking drivers involved in fatal crashes were speeding.

  9. Young Driver Over-Involvement in Fatal Crashes Ages 15-20 13.6% of All Drivers Involved in Fatal Crashes 13% of All Alcohol- Involved Drivers in Fatal Crashes 6.4% of All Licensed Drivers Source: NHTSA Traffic Safety Facts, 2003

  10. The Problem The problem is particularly acute for 16-year-old drivers 16-year-old drivers have crash rates that are 3 times that of 17 year olds, 5 times that of 18 year olds, and even twice that of 85 year olds. 15% of 16 year olds involved in fatal crashes in 2012 had been drinking (BACs>=.01)

  11. What are some of the reasons for the high crash rates of young drivers?

  12. The Research: Risk Factors • Inexperience – Especially the first few months of licensure • Late night driving (without supervision) • The number of teen passengers • The presence of alcohol (and other drugs) in young drivers • The low rate of seat belt usage • Type of vehicle driven • Distractions (especially cell phones) • Attention Deficit and Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD)

  13. Crashes per Million Miles by Driver Age in the U.S. 50- 16 17 18 19 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75- 80- 85+ DRIVER AGE

  14. Percent of Licensed Drivers in Crashes in One Year by Age and Gender in the U.S. 16 17 18 19 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75- 80- 85+ DRIVER AGE

  15. Crash Rates in the U.S. by Driver Age and Passenger Presence Per 10,000 trips 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3+ 0 1 2 3+ 0 1 2 3+ ages 16-17 ages 18-19 ages 30-59 number of passengers

  16. Graduated Driver Licensing

  17. Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) in the U.S. Premise: Permit beginning drivers to acquire on-the-road driving experience under low-risk conditions Adopt special restrictions and requirements after initial learning phase Allow young drivers to “graduate” to full license privileges after successfully completing certain stages

  18. Graduated Driver Licensing in the U.S. Stage 1: Learner’s Permit – Model Components Minimum age requirement Vision/knowledge tests Basic skills training Licensed adult (at least age 21) required in vehicle at all times Teenage passenger limitations All occupants must wear safety belts No alcohol or drugs (zero tolerance: BAC<.02) Crash- and conviction-free for at least six months Parental certification of practice hours Distinctive permit from other licenses

  19. Graduated Driver Licensing in the U.S. Stage 2: Intermediate or Provisional License – Model Components Complete Stage 1 Minimum age requirement Behind-the-wheel test Advanced driver education training Teen passenger restrictions All occupants must wear safety belts Nighttime driving restrictions: Licensed adult required in vehicle for all late night driving (when drinking most likely to occur) Zero tolerance (no alcohol or drugs) Crash- and conviction-free for at least 12 consecutive months Distinctive license from full license

  20. Graduated Driver Licensing in the U.S. • Complete Stage 2 • Minimum age requirement • Zero tolerance (no alcohol or drugs) up to age 21 Stage 3: Full Licensure

  21. Graduated Driver Licensing Evaluations of Effectiveness in the U.S. and Canada

  22. Graduated Driver Licensing Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Ratings: “Good” GDL Law if it has 5 out of the following 7 components: Minimum age for learner’s permit Mandatory waiting period to advance to intermediate stage Minimum hours of supervised driving Minimum age for intermediate license Nighttime restriction in intermediate stage Passenger limitation in intermediate stage Minimum age for full unrestricted license

  23. Graduated Driver Licensing National Studies in the U.S. • Vanlaar, et al., (2009) – Meta-analysis showed significant reduction of fatal crashes of 16-year-old drivers, but not 17, 18, or 19 year old drivers Dee, et al., (2005) – Significant 4.4% reduction in 15- to 17-year-old driver deaths attributable to GDL laws when covariate laws included Chen, et al., (2006) – GDL associated with an 11% lower fatal crash involvement rate for 16 year olds; 16-21% reduction with GDL programs with 5 of 7 key components Morrisey, Grabowski, Dee & Campbell (2006) – “Good” GDL programs reduce fatalities among 15- to 17-year-old drivers by 19%; “Fair” GDL programs reduce nighttime fatal crash involvements by 13% but no effect on daytime fatal crashes; “Marginal” GDL programs had no effect.

  24. Graduated Driver Licensing National Studies in the U.S. McCartt, et al., (2009) – GDL laws rated as “Good” had 30% lower fatal crash rate for 15- to 17-year-old drivers compared to GDL laws rated as “Poor” Lyon, Pan & Li (2012) – a strict GDL permit stage was associated with a 58% reduction in fatal crash risk by 16-year-old drivers compared to a lenient permit stage. Intermediate stage associated with a 44% reduction in fatal crashes but little effect on injury crashes. Strongest effects were seen for crashes with passengers, followed by nighttime crashes, and then overall crashes.

  25. Graduated Driver Licensing Three National Studies in the U.S.: First Study Results Fell, Jones, Romano, Voas (2011) Traffic Injury Prevention, 12(5), 423-431 States that adopt a basic GDL law can expect a decrease of 7-11%in the proportion of 16- to 17-year-old drivers involved in fatal crashes relative to 21- to 25-year-old drivers depending upon their other existing laws (zero tolerance; primary belt; .08 BAC; use and lose) States that adopt “Good” GDL laws can expect decreases of 8-13% in the proportion of 16- to 17-year-old drivers involved in fatal crashes relative to 21- to 25-year-old drivers depending upon their other existing laws (zero tolerance; primary belt; .08 BAC; use and lose)

  26. Graduated Driver Licensing Three National Studies in the U.S.: Second Study Results Fell, Todd, Voas (2011): Journal of Safety Research, 42, 283-290 GDL nighttime restrictions reduce 16- to 17-year-old driver involvements in nighttime fatal crashes by 10% Nighttime restrictions reduce 16- to 17-year-old drinking drivers in nighttime fatal crashes by 13%. Passenger restrictions reduce 16- to 17-year-old driver involvements in fatal crashes with teen passengers by 9%

  27. Graduated Driver Licensing Three National Studies in the U.S.: Third Study Results Romano, Fell, Voas (2011) Annals of Advances in Automotive Medicine, 55, 51-61 Found GDL effects for White, African-Americans and Asian young drivers but not Hispanic young drivers GDL had no apparent effect on speeding-related fatal crashes of novice drivers The observed differences involving young Hispanic drivers might be related to factors other than GDL (e.g., SES causing young Hispanics not to drive as much as Whites).

  28. Graduated Driver Licensing EffectivenessReductions in 16-17 year old drivers in fatal crashes Fell, Jones, Romano, Voas, 2011 Fell, Todd,Voas, 2011 Fell, Todd,Voas, 2011 -7% GDLwhen otherlaws present -9% in fatalcrashes withteenpassengers -13% fordrinking16-17 yearold driver innighttime fatalcrashes -10% innighttimefatal crashes -11% whenGDL alone GDL effects Nighttime restrictioneffects Passengerlimitation effects

  29. Graduated Driver Licensing Summary GDL is a rational way to deal with novice driver problems GDL allows beginning drivers to gradually gain experience under low-risk conditions GDL provides incentives to drive safely to graduate to full licensure Surveys indicate substantial support for GDL by parents GDL significantly reduces crashes involving 16- to 17-year-olds GDL can save thousands of lives in the future if all States adopt it and if it is extended to all young drivers under age 21.

  30. So, has Graduated Driver Licensing been a total success?

  31. Graduated Driver Licensing Recent National Study Masten, Foss, Marshall (2011) Journal of the American Medical Association, 306(10), 1098-1103 “Good” GDL programs associated with lower incidence of fatal crashes for 16-year-old drivers by 26%, resulting in about 1,348 fewer fatal crashes. However, “Good” GDL programs were associated with a 12% increase in fatal crashes by 18-year-old drivers, resulting in about 1,086 more fatal crashes. Lead author (Masten) speculated that the increase in 18-year-old fatal crashes was due to them delaying licensure in the “Good” GDL states because of the strong restrictions.

  32. Graduated Driver Licensing Additional Recent Analyses (based upon Fell, Romano & Voas, 2013) RESULTS Any GDL law reduces fatal crash involvements of 16-year-old drivers by 17% (p<.05) saving 1,945 lives over the years. “Good” GDL laws reduce fatal crash involvements of 16-year-old drivers by 20% (p<.05) saving 2,347 lives over the years. However, 18-year-old fatal crash involvements increased by 11% (p<.05) associated with “Good” GDL laws, resulting in 2,724 fatalities over the years. Why?

  33. Graduated Driver Licensing Possible Reasons for the Conflict: Drivers aged 18-19 are skipping GDL phases and driving at a later age---reducing their experience Drivers aged 18-19 are exhibiting more risk-taking behaviors (e.g. impaired driving; lack of safety belt use; distracted driving) Drivers aged 18-19 have increased exposure to risk for a fatal crash (more late night driving; driving on high speed roads; driving more miles) Drivers aged 18-19 who have gone through two phases of GDL lack experience under high-risk conditions because of GDL restrictions

  34. Graduated Driver Licensing Further Research is Needed Should States require GDL up to age 21? Only one State does (New Jersey). Has the license status and license type changed over the years for 16-, 17-, and 18-year-old drivers compared to the same ages in fatal crashes before GDL? Have 18-year-old drivers delayed licensure? In which states? Why? What other components of GDL laws are effective? Minimum ages, holding periods, practice hours, etc.? Which GDL components affect impaired driving the most?

  35. Underage Drinking

  36. What percent of 18-20 year olds in the U.S. report drinking alcohol?

  37. Some Young People Do Drink, But a Smaller Percent Compared to Adults: 2002 Drinking Among Youth(past 30 days) 12- to 14-year-olds 18- to 20-year-olds 1% 5% 10% 24% 18% 49% 94% 72% 27% 15- to 17-year-olds Drinking Occasions 0 1 to 4 5 or more Source: NSDUH, 2002

  38. Some Young People Do Drink, But a Smaller Percent Compared to Adults: 2012 Drinking Among Youth(past 30 days) 12- to 14-year-olds 18- to 20-year-olds 5% 1% 3% 19% 15% 55% 96% 80% 26% 15- to 17-year-olds Drinking Occasions 0 1 to 4 5 or more Source: NSDUH, 2012

  39. But, Young Drinkers Drink More Heavily than Adult Drinkers: 2002 Comparison of drinking patterns for adult and underage drinkers (past 30 days) Non-bingers Bingers Source: NSDUH, 2002

  40. But, Young Drinkers Drink More Heavily than Adult Drinkers: 2012 Comparison of drinking patterns for adult and underage drinkers (past 30 days) Non-bingers Bingers Source: NSDUH, 2012

  41. Relative Risk* of Being Involved in a Fatal Crash by BAC BAC Driver Age.05 - .079.08 - .099>.15 16-20 6.24 12.61 490.41 21-34 4.78 8.74 200.03 35+ 4.03 6.89 111.94 *Risk relative to BAC=.00 for same age group Relative risks are the same for men and women at a given BAC. Relative risk for 16-20 year old women are now the same as 16-20 year old men at a given BAC (a change from 1996). Source: Voas, Torres, Romano, Lacey, JSAD, (2012)

  42. Relative Risk of Being Killed as a Driver in a Single Vehicle Crash(Relative to BAC =.00) Source: Voas, Torres, Romano, Lacey (2012)

  43. Minimum Legal Drinking Age Laws

  44. Minimum Legal Drinking AgesAround the World Source: WHO Australia – 18 Canada – 18 France – 16 Italy – 16 Japan – 20 Sweden – 18 Switzerland – 14 Great Britain – 16 USA – 21 Venezuela – 18

  45. Background

  46. Minimum Legal Drinking Age 21 (MLDA-21)History in the United States • Minimum Legal Drinking Age (MLDA) Laws established in the States after the Repeal of Prohibition in 1933(21st Amendment to the US Constitution) • Most States set the MLDA at 21(e.g., 11 States set and stayed at 21): AR (1935); CA (1933); IN (1934); KY (1938); NV (1935); NM (1934); ND (1936); OR (1933); PA (1935); UT (1935); WA (1934)

  47. Minimum Legal Drinking Age 21 History in the United States Voting age lowered from 21 to 18 in 1971 (26th Amendment to the US Constitution) Many States began to lower the drinking age to 18 or 19 in the early 1970s Studies in the 1970s and 1980s showed significant increases in alcohol-related fatal traffic crashes involving youth aged 16-20 in States that lowered their drinking age

  48. Minimum Legal Drinking Age 21 History in the United States Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) founded in 1980 President’s Commission on Drunk Driving established in 1982 MADD, President’s Commission, Members of Congress recommended a National Uniform Drinking Age Law set at 21 in order to reduce youthful alcohol-related fatalities and eliminate the “blood borders”

  49. MLDA 21 Milestones All 50 States plus DC adopt age 21 as minimum legal drinking age (illegal topossess alcohol and illegal to purchase alcohol) by 1988 or risk the withholding of a portion of Federal Highway Construction funds. President Ronald Reagan signs federal 21 Minimum Drinking Age law in 1984.

  50. US Minimum Legal Drinking Ages as of December 31, 196935 states had 21 as the drinking age NH ND WA MT VT MN ME SD WI OR ID WY NY MI MA IA NE PA IL OH IN RI NJ NV UT CO CT MO WV KS DE VA KY CA MD TN NC OK DC AR AZ NM SC MS AL GA LA TX 21 years old FL AK 20 years old 18 years old HI

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