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Global Energy Mix and CO2 Emissions Forecast: Trends and Concerns for 2030

This report analyzes the world’s energy mix and forecasts CO2 emissions trends through 2030. According to the International Energy Agency, global emissions could rise by 39% from 2006 levels, primarily driven by coal growth in developing countries. Although energy consumption remains low per capita in these regions, the potential for significant emissions increase is substantial, especially with new coal plants projected to emit 26% more CO2 than historic standards. Understanding these patterns is crucial for international policies addressing climate change and energy sustainability.

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Global Energy Mix and CO2 Emissions Forecast: Trends and Concerns for 2030

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  1. The world’s energy mix (2006) Electricity generation Primary energy Source: International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics, 2009

  2. Electricity generation mix U.S. China Source: DOE-EIA, Electric Power Annual, January 2009 & China Analysis Brief, July 2009

  3. World CO2 emissions (2006) 28,003 million tonnes of CO2 Source: International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics, 2009

  4. Will emissions keep growing? • Business-as-Usual Scenario (BAU): world CO2 emissions to rise 39% by 2030 from 2006 levels • Largest growth from coal Source: DOE-EIA International Energy Outlook, May 2009

  5. Where will the growth come from? • Developing country growth overshadows that from developed countries • But: a citizen from a developing country consumes a fraction of the energy we do Source: DOE-EIA International Energy Outlook, May 2007

  6. An enormous emissions potential

  7. New coal plant emissions 26% greater than all historic coal CO2 34% of remaining budget for 450ppm stabilization Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, and WEO 2006

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