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PPR July 2009 PowerPoint Presentation
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PPR July 2009

PPR July 2009

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PPR July 2009

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  1. PPR July 2009

  2. Figure 1 Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  3. Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  4. Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  5. Figure 4. GDP-growth abroadAnnual percentage change Sources: IMF and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  6. Figure 5. Stock market volatilityPer cent Source: Reuters EcoWin Note: Implicit volatility is estimated on the basis of index-linked option prices.

  7. Figure 6. Swedish companies' net borrowing via bonds denominated in foreign currencySEK, billions Source: Statistics Sweden

  8. Figure 7. GDP for the USA and the euro areaQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  9. Figure 8. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel, future price Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

  10. Figure 9. Distribution of Consensus GDP forecasts for next yearPercentage points Source: Consensus Forecasts

  11. Figure 10. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18.11.92 = 100 Source: The Riksbank

  12. Figure 11. Development of GDP in different regions and countriesQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  13. Figure 12. Comparison of recovery following various recessions, GDP SwedenIndex in the quarter preceding the beginning of the recession = 100 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  14. Figure 13. GDP Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  15. Figure 14. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  16. Figure 15. Swedish exports and export market index for goodsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  17. Figure 16. Public sector net lendingPer cent of GDP Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  18. Figure 17. Labour force and number of employedThousands, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  19. Figure 18. Employment rateEmployment as a percentage of the population, 16-64 year, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  20. Figure 19. UnemployedPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  21. Figure 20. Actual and trend productivity growth in the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  22. Figure 21. Estimated gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  23. Figure 22. Nominal wagesAnnual percentage change Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  24. Figure 23. Unit labour costs for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  25. Figure 24. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  26. Figure 25. HICP in the euro area and in SwedenAnnual percentage change Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  27. Figure 26. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  28. Figure 27. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  29. Figure 28. CPIAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  30. Figure 29. CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  31. Figure 29. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  32. Figure 31. Labour market gap (hours worked)Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  33. Figure 32. CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  34. Figure 33. Labour costs per hourAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  35. Figure 34. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  36. Figure 35. Labour market gap (hours worked)Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  37. Figure 36. CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  38. Figure 37. GDP abroadTCW-weighted, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms Sources: National sources and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  39. Figure 38. Labour market gap (hours worked)Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  40. Figure 39. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  41. Figure 40. CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  42. Figure 41. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  43. Figure 42. Long term interest ratesPer cent Source: Reuters EcoWin Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.

  44. Figure 43. Difference between interbank rates and government bond rates (TED spread)Basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

  45. Figure 44. Difference between interbank rates and expected monetary policy (Basis-spread)Basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

  46. Figure 45. Monetary policy expectations in the Euro area and the USAPer cent Sources: Reuters Ecowin and the Riksbank

  47. Figure 46. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden according to money market participants Per cent Sources: Reuters Ecowin, TNS Prospera and the Riksbank

  48. Figure 47. Stock market movementsIndex, 04.01.99 = 100 Source: Reuters EcoWin

  49. Figure 48. Short-term interest rates in SwedenPer cent Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  50. Figure 49. Long-term mortgage rates in SwedenPer cent Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank