Future Sea Level Rise Sources

1. Future Sea Level Rise Sources A compilation of data/predicted sea level rise Group 2, Mission 2010

2. Purpose • This is so that the rest of you can see the current data out there on sea level rise predictions

3. Source #1-#3 *Can • Climatic Research Unit (2000) • Author: Sarah Raper • In meters 1.8 to 2.1 • Uncertainties: • Future greenhouse gases & aerosol emissions • Greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere • Effect of changed concentrations on the radiative forcing of the atmosphere • Effect of this force on temperature and snowfall • Rate of heat transfer to the ocean • Regional climate change over the glaciers, ice caps, and ice-sheets • Response of the glaciers, ice-caps, and ice-sheets to this climate changes

4. Source #1

5. Source #2 • Supports 1st Source • Graph source is Wikipedia • In centimeters • 1880-2000

6. Source #2

7. Source #3 • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) • In meters1.990-2.100 • Even if greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilised, sea level will continue to rise for hundreds of years. After 500 years, sea level rise from the thermal expansion of oceans may have reached only half its eventual level, glacier retreat will continue and ice sheets will continue to react to climate change. • Thermal expansion and land ice changes were calculated using a simple climate model calibrated separately for each of seven air/ocean global climate models (AOGCMs). Light shading shows range of all model

8. Source #3

9. Source #4-#8 *YeSeul • 1. Coast to Coast 2002 National Conference • Main writer: Kevin Walsh, University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences • 2. Predicted sea level rise: .03 to .3 m by 2040; .09-.88m by 2010 • 3. Uncertainties: due to future greenhouse gas concentrations. Used GIS

10. Source 4

11. Source #5 • EPA (Saving Louisiana’s Coastal Wetlands Report) http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/SHSU5BURPP/$File/louisiana.pdf • .7 m rise by 2080 • Incorporate Uncertainties: future emissions on “greenhouse gases,” resulting impact on climate, oceanic heat absorption and response of glaciers to warming

12. Source #5

13. Source #6 • IPCC • .48 m

14. Source #6

15. Source #7 • Hart, David A., Burkett, Virginia A., Ziloski, David A. Sea Level Rise and Subsidence: Implications of Flooding in New Orleans, Louisiana. United States Geological Survey. • .48m

16. Source #8 • USGS

17. Source #9-#13 *Erika • CSCOR, Division of NOAA http://www.cop.noaa.gov/stressors/climatechange/current/sea_level_rise.html • Uncertainty: Process for determining projected sea level rise was not stated. • 3. .040m – 1.029m by 2095

18. Source #10 • 1. Australian Academy of Science • http://www.science.org.au/nova/082/082key.htm • Uncertainty: Greenhouse gas concentrations, climate sensitivity, ocean heat exchange, and response of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to years of warmer temperatures • 3. .09m - .88m, with a “best guess” of .50m

19. Source #11 • 1. National Center for Atmospheric Research http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/307/5716/1769 • Uncertainty: Greenhouse gas concentrations • 3. With a global temp rise of between 1.9° and 2.6°C: .18m - .2m with a global temp rise of between 2.2° and 3.5°C: .19m - .30m

20. Source #13 • 1. Climate and sea level change(1993). In Warrick R. A., Barrow E. M. and Wigley, T. M. L. (Eds.). Great Britain: Cambridge University Press. • 2. Actual temperature rise due to greenhouse gas emissions • 3. Business as usual (no change in rate of greenhouse gas emissions): 1.09m • Scenario B (“reasonably realistic policies are implemented to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions”): .47m • Scenario C (“assumes somewhat stronger policies”): .18m

21. Source #14-18 *Katie • 1. AGI (American Geological Institute)2. Uncertain how much of the sea level rise data pertaining to 130,000 yearsago was due to Antarctic ice sheet melting 3. 6 meters or more over the next 140 years (due to melting of ice sheets)

22. Source #14

23. Source #15 • 1. CRU (Climatic Research Unit)2. Lists factors contributing to uncertainty:         1. the assumed future greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions,         2. the resulting greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere,which depends on the various sources and sinks of the various gases,         3. the effect of the changed concentrations on the radiativeforcing of the atmosphere,         4. the effect of this forcing on the climate, in particular ontemperature and snowfall,         5. the rate of heat penetration into the ocean, which will affectthe rate of thermal expansion of the ocean,         6. the regional climate change over the glaciers, ice caps andice-sheets (both temperature and snowfall),         7. the response of the glaciers, ice caps and ice-sheets to thisclimate change.3. Based on looking at the chart, about 40 cm by 2100, using the "ReferenceBest Guess" line 4.

24. Source #15

25. Source #16 • 1. David Gates...some smart guy who wrote some book about this stuff,published by Sinauer Associates 2. Very uncertain, gives a broad general range of estimates 3. 33 cm by 2050, anywhere from 1.5 - 2.5 m by 2100

26. Source #17 • 1. Iowa State University2. There is no evidence for any acceleration in the rate of sea level risefor the 20th century 3. Best estimate - .66 m by 2100 • To see graphs: http://www.iitap.iastate.edu/gcp/sealevel/sealevel_lecture.html

27. Source #18 • 1. Modelle & Daten - World Data Center for Climate, Hamburg 2. Sea level rise varies depending on model 3. Various estimates based on different models

28. Source #18

29. Source #18

30. Source #18

31. Source #18

32. Source #18

33. Other things to consider

34. Conclusion • Reasonable data ranges anywhere from .02-1.5 m • Extreme low: .02m • Extreme high: 6 m • Average: .944 m (Calculated from taking average of ranges/# of data sources without the extreme high or low outliers)

35. Average values of SLR ranges