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Forecasting and Short-Term Financial Planning

Chapter 12. Forecasting and Short-Term Financial Planning. Learning Objectives. 1. Understand the sources and uses of cash that are used in building a cash budget . 2.Explain how sales forecasts are used to predict cash inflow .

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Forecasting and Short-Term Financial Planning

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  1. Chapter 12 Forecasting and Short-Term Financial Planning

  2. Learning Objectives 1. Understand the sources and uses of cash that are used in building a cash budget. 2.Explain how sales forecasts are used to predict cash inflow. 3. Understand how production costs vary in terms of cash flow timing. 4. Explain possible ways to cover cash deficits and invest cash surplus. 5. Prepare a pro forma income statement and a pro forma balance sheet.

  3. 12.1 Sources and Uses of Cash • Cash is considered to be the life-blood of a business. Cash shortages can be stifling and expensive while excesses can lead to poor returns. • Since most businesses do not function on a pure cash basis, it is critical for them to forecast their needs for cash in advance. • The cash budget is the analytical tool that estimates the future timing of cash inflow and cash outflow and projects potential shortfalls and surpluses.

  4. 12.1 Sources and Uses of Cash (continued) Table 12.1 Bridge Water Pumps and Filters, Cash Budget for First Six Months of 2012 ($ in thousands) Despite setting up a cash reserve, the firm is projected to have cash shortfalls in 3 months and surpluses in 2 after all cash receipts and disbursements have been forecasted for the first half of 2012.

  5. 12.1 Sources and Uses of Cash (continued)Figure 12.1 Cash inflows and cash outflows for a company Identifying all possible sources and uses of cash is essential for preparing a useful cash budget. This list can serve as a guide when preparing a cash budget.

  6. 12.2 Cash Budgeting and the Sales Forecast Sales revenue base variable driving almost all other items in the cash budget, Must forecast sales as objectively as possible.  There is usually a time lag between when a sale is made and when the cash receipts come in  Must keep track of collections time-line. Need internal data (information that is proprietary or unique to the firm) as well as external data (publicly available information) sources for objective sales forecasts.

  7. 12.2 Cash Budgeting and the Sales Forecast (continued)Figure 12.2 Marketing data for Bridge Water Pumps and Filters

  8. 12.2 (A) Cash Inflow from Sales • Firms typically sell products and services partially for cash and partially on credit.   • An analysis of a firm’s collection policy can help project cash inflow from sales.   • It is quite common for firms to collect some of their receivables in the 2 months following the sale, i.e. November 2008’s credit sales will be partially collected in December and January.

  9. 12.2 (A) Cash Inflow from Sales (continued)Table 12.3 Bridge Water Pumps and Filters Cash Flow from Sales: January, February, and March 2012 Cash Flow Estimates Managers often figure in a small percentage of the forecasted sales as bad debts when preparing a cash budget.

  10. 12.2 (B) Other Cash Receipts • Besides sales, which are the main contributor to a firm’s cash inflow, we need to forecast the timing and magnitude of other occasional sources of cash such as • asset sales, • funds raised through issuance and sale of securities, and • income earned on investments (dividends, interest, etc.).

  11. 12.3 Cash Outflow from Production • The magnitude and timing of the various cash disbursements of a firm depends mainly on forecasted sales. • Payments for raw materials, labor costs, overheads such as utilities and rent, etc.   • Like sales, there is often a time lag between when the firm receives and records the benefit, and when it actually makes the payment for it. • The cash budget can be used as a handy planning document to keep track of the projected disbursements. • Depreciation is merely a tax write-off, not a cash disbursement, so should not be included in a cash budget.

  12. 12.4 The Cash Forecast: Short-Term Deficits and Short-term Surpluses The main objective of developing a cash budget  Firm has sufficient cash available from its revenues and other receipts to cover its periodic cash disbursements such as: • Accounts payables for materials and supplies; • Salaries, wages, taxes, other operating expenses; • Capital expenditures for plant, equipment, and machinery; and • Dividends, interest and floatation cost payments related to raising and servicing of capital. Over a short planning cycle, the total periodic cash inflow rarely matches the total periodic outflow  seasonal fluctuations and time lags   Forecasted cash deficits and surpluses in certain periods

  13. 12.4 The Cash Forecast: Short-Term Deficits and Short-term Surpluses (continued)Table 12.4 Monthly Cash Budget for Bridge Water Pumps and Filters

  14. 12.4 (A) Funding Cash Deficits Cash shortfalls can be handled in 4 ways: • Cash from savings • Unsecured loans (letters of credit) • Secured loans (using accounts receivable or inventories) • Other sources (commercial paper, trade credit, or banker’s acceptance)

  15. 12.4 (B) Investing Cash Surpluses When a company has excess funds, it has 4 options: 1. Put the surplus in a savings account or invest it in marketable securities. 2. Repay lenders and owners (retire debt early or pay extra dividends). 3. Replace aging assets. 4. Invest in the company, accepting positive net present value projects

  16. 12.5 Planning with Pro Forma Financial Statements • Cash budgeting, is only one aspect of short-term financial planning. Equally important for firms to forecast their operating cash flow and net income for the forthcoming period by developing pro forma financial statements. • There are a variety of ways to produce pro forma statements, but the statements usually rely on two primary inputs: • The prior year’s financial statements and the relationship of the account balances to each other, and • The projected sales for the coming year.

  17. 12.5 Planning with Pro Forma Financial Statements (continued) • The percentage of each item either to sales (income statement) or to total assets (balance sheet) is computed for the prior year, and then multiplied by the projected sales (income statement) or total assets (balance sheet) for the coming year to develop pro forma financial statements.   • For example, let’s say that the cash balance for the prior year is $2 million and the total assets is $100m. So cash is 2% of total assets (2 ÷ 100 = 2%). • For the Pro Forma Balance Sheet, we would forecast cash as 2% of the forecasted total assets as well, i.e. if total assets are forecasted to increase by 20% (100m  $120m)  Cash would be forecasted to be .02 * 120m = $24m.

  18. 12.5 (A) Pro Forma Income Statement (continued): Figure 12.3

  19. 12.5 (A) Pro Forma Income Statement (continued) • This approach, a good first step, is often too simplistic in reality because many financial statement items do not vary proportionately with sales. • In particular, depreciation decreases over time and cost of goods sold often declines due to economies of scale. • The manager would have to fine-tune the forecasted values to make them more in line with reality.

  20. 12.5 (B) Pro Forma Balance Sheet Each prior year’s balance sheet item is expressed as a percent of total assets, and then multiplied by the forecasted total assets figure for the next period. Items which are obviously either constant each period, or which vary at a different rate (for whatever reason) are accordingly adjusted for by the financial manager. If total assets exceed total liabilities and owner’s equity, external financing is allocated according to some pre-determined ratio to serve as the plug variable.

  21. 12.5 (B) Pro Forma Balance Sheet (continued): Figure 12.5

  22. 12.5 (B) Pro Forma Balance Sheet (continued) Based on the following assumptions, a pro forma balance sheet is developed

  23. 12.5 (B) Pro Forma Balance Sheet (continued) Key calculations include:

  24. 12.5 (B) Pro Forma Balance Sheet (continued)

  25. 12.5 (B) Pro Forma Balance Sheet (continued): Figure 12.6

  26. 12.5 (B) Pro Forma Balance Sheet (continued) Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement • Finally, the pro forma cash flow statement (Figure 12.7) is prepared to tie together all the changes in operating, investment, and financing cash flows.

  27. 12.5 (B) Pro Forma Balance Sheet (continued): Figure 12.7

  28. Additional Problems with AnswersProblem 1 – Sales Forecast Sales Forecast: You have been asked to forecast sales for the coming year. Being convinced that the compound average growth rate is the best way to forecast growth, you collect data for the prior three years as listed below. Using the data compute the compound growth rate for each of the years and then forecast next year’s sales by using the two-year average growth rate. Year Sales 2009 $1,200,000 2010 $1,750,000 2011 $2,100,000 2012 ?

  29. Additional Problems with AnswersProblem 1 (Answer) g = (ending value / beginning value)1 / # of years – 1 2010 growth rate =[ (2010 Sales / 2009 sales)] -1 = (1.75m/1.2m) -1 = 45.83% 2011 growth rate = [ (2011 Sales / 2010 sales) ] - 1 = (2.1m/1.75m) – 1 = 20% 2-year average growth rate = (2011 Sales/2009 Sales)1/2 – 1 = (2.1m/1.2m)1/2 -1 =0.3229 = 32.29% 2012 Sales Forecast = $ 2,100,000*(1 + 0.3229) = $2,778,090

  30. Additional Problems with AnswersProblem 2 – Cash Budget & Sales Receipt Sales Receipts: The financial manager of Hearty Cereals is in the process of preparing a cash budget for the first quarter of 2012. The firm typically sells 1/3 of its monthly sales on cash terms and the rest on credit. An analysis of the accounts receivables shows that on average 40% of the sales are collected in the next month, 50% in 60 days, 7% in 90 days, with the rest ending up as bad debts. As the manager’s assistant it is your job to project the sales receipts for the first quarter of 2012, using the monthly sales figures listed below. 2011 Sales October $1,750,000 November $2,000,000 December $2,450,000  2012 Forecasted Sales January $1,850,000 February $1,650,000 March $1,900,000

  31. Additional Problems with Answers: Problem 2 (Answer)

  32. Additional Problems with AnswersProblem 3 Production cash outflow. The Creative Products Corporation produces its products two months in advance of anticipated sales and ships to warehouse centers the month before sale. The inventory safety stock is 15% of the anticipated month’s sale. Beginning inventory in October 2011 was 120,000 units. Each unit costs $1.50 to make. The average selling price is $2.50 per unit. The cost is made up of 60% labor, 30% materials, and 10% shipping (to warehouse). Labor is paid the month of production, shipping the month after production, and raw materials the month prior to production. What is the production cash outflow for the month of October 2011 production, and in what months does it occur? Assume that the sales forecast for December 2011 is $2,500,000

  33. Problem 3 (Answer) Unit Sales forecast for December 2011 = $2,500,000 ÷ $2.5 = 1 million units Safety stock required = 15% of December sales = 0.15 x 1,000,000 units = 150,000 units Beginning Inventory (October 2011) = 120,000 units Production needed in October = Dec. Sales + Safety Stock – Beg. Inventory= 1,000,000 + 150,000 – 120,000 = 970,000 units Cost of Production (Oct. 2011) = 970,000 * $1.50 = $1,455,000 Labor cost = .60 * 1,455,000= $873,000  paid in Oct. 2011 Shipping cost = .10 * 1,455,000 = $145,500  paid in Nov. 2011 Material cost = .30 * 1,455,000= $436,500  paid in Sept. 2011

  34. Additional Problems with AnswersProblem 4: Pro Forma Income Stmt

  35. Problem 4 (Answer)

  36. Additional Problems with AnswersProblem 5: Pro Forma B/S The Global Growth Corporation is planning for next year and wants you to help them prepare a Pro Forma Balance Sheet for 2012. Their current Balance Sheet is shown below along with some pre-determined changes in key balance sheet accounts. How will you proceed?

  37. Additional Problems with Answers: Problem 5 (continued)

  38. Additional Problems with Answers: Problem 5 (continued) Next year, the firm will increase its Plant, Property, and Equipment (PPE) by $7,000,000 with a plant expansion. The inventories will grow by 70%, but accounts payables will grow by 60%, and marketable securities will be reduced by 50% to help finance the expansion. If all other asset accounts remain the same and long-term debt will be used to finance the remaining costs of the expansion (no change in common stock or retained earnings), prepare a pro forma balance sheet for 2012. How much additional debt will be estimated using this pro forma balance sheet?

  39. Problem 5 (Answer) • Start by changing the known asset accounts and then total up assets. • Then use the total assets for total liabilities and owner’s equity balance. • Finally, make the required change in long-term debtto balance the balance sheet. • PPE = $8,500,000 + $7,000,000 = $15,500,000 • Inventories = 70% higher  (1.7) * 2500000 = 4,250,000 • Acct. payables = 60% higher  5,125,000 * 1.6 = 8,200,000 • Marketable Securities = 50% lower = 830,000*.5 = 415,000

  40. Additional Problems with AnswersProblem 5 (Answer) (continued)

  41. Problem 5 (Answer) (continued)

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