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PACIFIC PREDICTABILITY EXPERIMENT: LINKS WITH THE INTERNATIONAL POLAR YEAR (IPY)

PACIFIC PREDICTABILITY EXPERIMENT: LINKS WITH THE INTERNATIONAL POLAR YEAR (IPY). Zoltan Toth. Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP USA Acknowledgements: Sharan Majumdar, Yucheng Song, Craig Bishop, Istvan Szunyogh, Lacey Holland, Tim Marchok, Jean-Guy Desmarais

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PACIFIC PREDICTABILITY EXPERIMENT: LINKS WITH THE INTERNATIONAL POLAR YEAR (IPY)

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  1. PACIFIC PREDICTABILITY EXPERIMENT: LINKS WITH THE INTERNATIONAL POLAR YEAR (IPY) Zoltan Toth Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP USA Acknowledgements: Sharan Majumdar, Yucheng Song, Craig Bishop, Istvan Szunyogh, Lacey Holland, Tim Marchok, Jean-Guy Desmarais http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/index.html

  2. OUTLINE / SUMMARY • LINKS BETWEEN THORPEX & IPY • Both global programs • THORPEX is weather component of IPY • Joint field program during IPY • SCIENTIFIC HYPOTHESES FOR THORPEX-IPY • Main sources of observational uncertainty over NH • Main factors supporting / limiting predictability over two hemispheres • NOAA’S INTERESTS IN THORPEX-IPY • Short-Term Arctic Predictability (STAP) • 3-90 days forecast of high impact weather, sea ice, ocean wave, land surface • PACIFIC PREDICTABILITY EXPERIMENT • THORPEX-IPY theme • Complemented by meso-scale studies • NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM • Combined Canadian-US ensemble, users from Mexico & elsewhere • UK Metoffice, FNMOC, AFWA to join in 2006 • Prototype for future Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS, legacy of THORPEX)

  3. LINKS BETWEEN IPY & THORPEX • International Polar Year (IPY): • Multi- and interdisciplinary international research experiment 03/2007-02/2009 • Study areas of strongest climate change impact • Comprehensive research in both polar regions • Strong links to the rest of the globe - • Theme 3 (of 6): “Advance our understanding of polar - global interactions by studying teleconnections on all scales.” • THORPEX – A World Weather Research Program (WWRP): • Accelerate improvements in skill/utility of 1-14 day weather forecasts • Long-term (10-yrs) global research program in areas of: • Observing system, data assimilation, numerical modeling/ensemble, socioec. appl. • Strong link with operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers • International program under WMO • Planning initiated with discussions about North Pacific experiment => • Opportunities for IPY - THORPEX Collaboration • Joint THORPEX-IPY Observing period – • Major opportunity for accelerating observing system design work • Improved weather forecasts for polar regions & IPY activities • Scientific investigations: • Link between weather and climate processes • Mid-latitude – Polar interactions • THORPEX IS THE WEATHER COMPONENT OF IPY

  4. SCIENTIFIC HYPOTHESES FOR THORPEX-IPY RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS A – Initial conditions: • Main sources of forecast uncertainty / impediments to extending forecasts to day 14+ • Tropical excitation of waves from the Pacific ocean, especially from Maritime Continent • The mid-latitude flow regime over the Pacific Ocean • The polar circulation with episodes of cross polar flow • Assess relative importance of three sources of uncertainty & their interaction What is optimal mix of observations to reduce forecast uncertainty? What is best way of assimilating relevant data? HYPOTHESIS B – Numerical modeling: • The level of predictability & forecast skill over the NH vs. SH are influenced by: • Nature of flow regimes in polar regions • More symmetric circumpolar vortex with little to no cross polar flow over the Antarctic • Less symmetric vortex with major episodes of cross polar flow over the Arctic • Difference in distribution of continents and oceans over two hemispheres • Much larger contrast between land and ocean masses over NH • Nature of wave guides for tropical to extratropical energy transfer • Better defined / spatially locked wave guide (PNA) over NH • Assess relative role of three factors & their relationship in • Supporting and limiting atmospheric predictability for • Global circulation in general • Different regions of the globe: Polar, mid-latitude, tropical What limits NWP models in realistically representing three factors? How NWP forecast & uncertainty information can be best conveyed to users? NEED TO IMPROVE INITIAL STATE, MODEL, OR BOTH TO REACH OUT TO D 14+?

  5. NOAA’S INTEREST IN THORPEX-IPY SHORT-TERM ARCTIC PREDICTABILITY (STAP, IPY Proposal #798): • Study variability & predictability of Arctic high impact • Atmospheric, ice, ocean, and land surface events • Their interaction with global processes • On 3-90 days time scale • Program elements • Observing System • Study effect of supplemental Arctic IPY data on NWP skill, including ocean wave & sea ice • Test new satellite & in situ platforms/instruments • Collect adaptive obs. along N-Pacific storm track & its source region in tropics to improve IPY fcsts • Data Assimilation • Develop targeting methods for improved high impact Arctic events • Improve assimilation of current & future atmos. (over ice/snow), sea ice, & ocean/land surface data • Contribute to design of new global observing system over 2 polar regions in framework of GEOSS • Numerical Modeling • Identify & diagnose model weaknesses critical for polar regions & polar-extrapolar interactions • Improve atmospheric, sea ice, &n land surface model formulation • Accelerate testing & implementation of Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for storm surges • Develop methods to represent model related uncertainty in ensemble forecasting • Assess value of high resolution LAM with the CWRF model for high impact Arctic events • Contribute to TIGGE research goals by developing prototype ensemble forecast system (NAEFS) • Socio-Economic Applications • Provide new probabilistic weather, ice, and ocean products to support Arctic user community • Develop new procedures for use of forecast information in different Arctic applications • Quantify effect of existing & improved weather forecast information on key user group

  6. SHORT-TERM ARCTIC PREDICTABILITY (STAP, #798) • Principal Investigators: • Satellite data / assimilation: • Jeff Key (NOAA), Chris Velden (SIMSS), John LeMarshall (JCSDA) • Coupled Atmosphere-ice-ocean-land surface diagnosis and modeling • Robert Grumbine, Julian Wang, Mel Shapiro (NOAA) • Socio-Economic Applications: • James Partain (NOAA), Rebecca Morss (NCAR), Arun Kumar (NOAA) • Connections with other IPY activities: • Cluster 2 • Terrestrial cryosphere, NH (#392 - Grumbine) • Arctic Sea Ice (#185, Grumbine) • Cross-cutting (Shapiro, Toth) • Cluster 4 • Weather-Climate link (Kumar, Wang) • THORPEX (Toth, Shapiro) • Observing Systems (#129, 138, 699, 732, Key, Velden, LeMarshall) • Teleconnections (Shapiro, Toth) • Cluster 5 • Coasts & Margins, Arctic (#182, Partain) • Cluster 6 • Change: Adaptation, Human (Partain, Morss)

  7. SHORT-TERM ARCTIC PREDICTABILITY (STAP, #798) • NOAA IPY Connections • IPY activities coordinated by John Calder • STAP is one of 10 NOAA IPY proposals, linked in particular with: • Causes & impacts of recent changes in Pacific Arctic (#157, Calder & K. Crane) • Data Management/Arctic Change Detection (#879, Florence Fetterer) • Decision support in Alaska & the Arctic (#215, Juniper Neill) • Arctic climate modelling (#337, Tony Beesley) • Arctic system reanalysis (#179, John Calder) • Satellite products (#600, Jeff Key) • US Connections: • Pacific Predictability Experiment (PAPEX) • Led by David Parsons • Need for agency (NASA, ONR, NSF) & wider community (univ./private) coordination • Mesoscale activities may leverage off / complement THORPEX-IPY work • North American Connections: • North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) • Improve & expand operational product line to support use in Arctic • Asia / SH Connections: • Through PAPEX • Coordinated under THORPEX

  8. PACIFIC PREDICTABILITY EXPERIMENT - PAPEX • Main interest? • Build around THORPEX goals • Link up with IPY • Complement it with meso-scale aspects if there is interest • Field OR laboratory experiment? • BOTH • Lab work (Improve DA, NWP modeling, targeting; Use OSSEs) • Design field phase • Generalize field results • Field work • Real time test & demonstration • Support IPY activities (lab work cannot achieve all on ground) • Timing? • Must be driven by IPY, March 2007 – February 2009 • Main theme? • Use THORPEX-IPY Science Hypotheses • Study lifecycle of waves on Pacific Storm Track (from tropics to Arctic)

  9. PACIFIC PREDICTABILITY EXPERIMENT - PAPEX PROPOSE STUDYING LIFECYCLE OF WAVES ON PAC. STORM TRACK • Western Tropical Pacific (ONR, Canada, Asian nations?) • Energy transfer from tropics to extra-tropics • Extra-tropical transition of tropical cyclones • Convection linked with Madden Julian or other waves • Western Extra-tropical Pacific (NOAA, NASA?) • Initial phase of extra-tropical lows • Targeted observations with 3-5 day lead time • Adaptive collection of data • In situ observations (dropsondes, aerosondes?) • Complement Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) program over Eastern Pacific • Adaptive processing of data • Satellite observations (dynamically controlled thinning etc) • Arctic Region (IPY) • Forecast applications (NAEFS) • Effect of data on extra-tropical forecasts • Continental US (NOAA) • Assess effect of IPY data on forecasts for cold air outbreaks etc • Southern Hemisphere (SH THORPEX partners) • Compare effect of tropical outbreaks on NH vs. SH storm tracks • Study differences in predictability over two hemispheres, including polar regions

  10. PACIFIC PREDICTABILITY EXPERIMENT - PAPEX STUDY LIFECYCLE OF WAVES ON PACIFIC STORM TRACK • Tropical wave in ensemble forecasts (13-16 May) • Connection between NH & SH (NCEP PQPF) • How well predicted? (ECMWF & NCEP MSLP ensemble mean) • Midlatitude low, influenced by tropical wave, affects polar region (17-23 May) • ECMWF & NCEP MSLP ensemble mean forecast & verifying analysis • Connection • Can targeting with in situ observations (dropsondes) help? • Results from Winter Storm Reconnessaince over NE-Pacific • PAPEX can complement WSR data over NW-Pacific • Is West Coast of US more exposed to “data void” than rest of US? (Myth) • Beyond 24-36 hrs, all areas equally exposed to “data void” • Predictability over West Coast may be higher • “First generation” storms hitting coast at end of well organized storm track • Rest of continent affected by 2nd generation storms • ECMWF • Targeting to improve longer range / second generation storms? • Beyond

  11. WESTERN VS. EASTERN US PREDICTABILITY Winter of 2002/03 There are seasons when predictability is higher over western US WSR00 West East

  12. Individual Case Comparison 1 denotes positive effect 0 denotes neutral effect -1 denotes negative effect VR OBSDATE P T V OVERALL REGION FHOUR E 20050120 1 1 1 1 82W ,37N 72 W 20050128 1 1 1 1 123W ,40N 24 C 20050205 1 1 1 1 97W ,31N 36 H 20050206 1 1 1 1 155W ,19.5N 24 C 20050206 1 1 1 1 90W ,43N 72 C 20050207 1 1 1 1 90W ,42N 60 C 20050208 1 -1 1 1 90W ,42N 36 AK 20050208 -1 -1 -1 -1 150W ,61N 48 E 20050208 1 0 -1 0 74W ,43N 48 C 20050209 -1 1 1 1 93W ,35N 96 AK 20050210 -1 -1 1 -1 135W ,55N 24 E 20050212 1 1 1 1 88W ,46N 48 W 20050213 1 1 1 1 123W ,38N 48 W 20050213 1 1 -1 1 123W ,38N 60 W 20050213 1 1 -1 1 123W ,38N 72 AK 20050219 1 1 1 1 150W ,61N 48 W 20050220 -1 1 1 1 118W ,34N 48 W 20050221 1 1 1 1 118W ,34N 24 AK 20050222 -1 -1 -1 -1 138W ,58N 24 AK 20050223 -1 1 1 1 140W ,60N 24 AK 20050225 1 1 1 1 140W ,60N 48 W 20050225 1 1 -1 1 123W ,40N 72 E 20050225 1 1 -1 1 75W ,40N 96 E 20050303 -1 1 1 1 86W ,41N 48 AK 20050309 -1 1 -1 -1 130W ,57N 36 H 20050312 1 -1 -1 -1 157W ,21N 24 E 20050313 0 1 1 1 81W ,32N 96 E 20050314 1 -1 -1 -1 79W ,32N 72 E 20050316 -1 -1 -1 -1 78W ,37N 48 W 20050317 1 1 1 1 122W ,38N 48 22 OVERALL POSITIVE 1 OVERALL NEUTRAL 7 OVERALL NEGATIVE 73% improved 23% degraded OVERALL EFFECT:

  13. Winds WSR05 Temperature Humidity

  14. Precipitation verification • Precipitation verification is still in a testing stage due to the lack of station observation data in some regions.

  15. Zoltan Toth, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, USA Jean-Guy Desmarais, MSC/CMC, Canada NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLEFORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)

  16. INAUGURATIONCEREMONY

  17. NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM -NAEFS Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA 60+ members per day from MSC & NWS Generates products for Intermediate users E.g., weather forecasters at NCEP Service Centers (US NWS) Specialized users E.g., hydrologic applications in all three countries End users E.g., forecasts for public distribution in Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM) Requires moderate additional investment for New telecommunication arrangements Extra coordination in research/development & implementations Operational implementation: March 2006 Ready to serve IPY and PAPEX community in 2007-2009

  18. NAEFS & THORPEX Expands national/international collaboration Mexico joined in November 2004 UK Met Office, FNMOC, AFWA to join in 2006 Provides framework for transitioning research into operations Prototype for ensemble component of THORPEX legacy forecast system Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS), part of: Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) RESEARCH THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) THORPEX RESEARCH Transfers New methods Articulates operational needs North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) OPERATIONAL LEGACY (GIFS) OPERATIONS

  19. OUTLINE / SUMMARY • LINKS BETWEEN THORPEX & IPY • Both global programs • THORPEX is weather component of IPY • Joint field program during IPY • SCIENTIFIC HYPOTHESES FOR THORPEX-IPY • Main sources of observational uncertainty over NH • Main factors supporting / limiting predictability over two hemispheres • NOAA’S INTERESTS IN THORPEX-IPY • Short-Term Arctic Predictability (STAP) • 3-90 days forecast of high impact weather, sea ice, ocean wave, land surface • PACIFIC PREDICTABILITY EXPERIMENT • THORPEX-IPY theme • Complemented by meso-scale studies • NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM • Combined Canadian-US ensemble, users from Mexico & elsewhere • UK Metoffice, FNMOC, AFWA to join in 2006 • Prototype for future Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS, legacy of THORPEX)

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