Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

1. THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODELPART 20A: AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

2. FRAMEWORK 1A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE ON GLOBAL DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE

3. 1. SCOPE FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS TO A DISASTER TO DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF “THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

4. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., volcanic eruptions, floods, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the community is not ready.  

5. THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS • PEOPLE (7+ Billion and counting) • COMMUNITIES • RECURRING EVENTS (AKA Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

6. PEOPLE = INNOVATION SUB-SAHARA AFRICA CARIBBEAN BASIN EUROPE 200 NATIONS AND 7+ BILLION PEOPLE NORTH AMERICA MEDITER- RANEAN SOUTH AMERICA ISLAND NATIONS ASIA

7. INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER, AND SOME WON’T

8. THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM • 7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)

9. LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: a continuum OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS

10. LIKE A CHAIN: a continuum HAs WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE

11. FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS • IGNORANCE • APATHY • DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES • LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

12. THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE) • GOVERNMENT • DWELLINGS • SCHOOLS • HEALTH CARE FACILITIES • BUSINESSES • INFRA-STRUCTURE • ETC

13. EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE-OF-RESILIENCE

14. THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM • FLOODS • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • EARTHQUAKES • DROUGHTS • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • ETC.

15. RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

16. RECURRING EARTHQUAKES

17. RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES

18. RECURRING FLOODS

19. RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES

20. CURRENT KNOWLEDGE IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR, STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND THEORETICAL MODELS HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES

21. FRAMEWORK 2A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FORTHE END GAME OF DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY

22. POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE Anticipatory Preparedness Adoption and Implementation of Realistic Building Codes & Standards Timely Early Warning and Evacuation Timely Emergency Response (including Evacuation and Emergency Medical Services) Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction

23. FLOODS • SEVERE WIND STORMS • EARTHQUAKES …ETC • BEST POLICIES • BEST PRACTICES A DISASTER DISASTER RESILIENCE FAILURES IN POLICIES CAUSES FAILURES IN PRACTICES COUNTER MEASURES YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

24. THE END GAME CHALLENGEBEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES INNIVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE PARA-DIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE

25. BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS

26. BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING

27. THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL INCREASE EXPONEBTIALLY AS --- a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is increased, b) Physical and organizational VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and c) Each people-community-hazard INTERSECTION is met successfully.

28. VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

30. INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESSUSE GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION DISASTER LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM “A” (Emergency Response) TO “Z” (Recovery and Reconstruction)

31. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

32. FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS) WARNING SYSTEMS DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO COMPUTER MODELS OF VOLCANOES MAPS DISASTER SCENARIOS HAZARD ASSESSMENT RISK ASSESSMENT EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

33. MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES .

34. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

35. PURPOSE PROTECTION CONTROL AVIATION SAFETY TECHNIQUE DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

36. PROTECTION: DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH • A LOAD OF WET ASH ON A ROOF IS TEN TIMES HEAVIER THAN A LOAD OF WET SNOW.

37. AVIATION SAFETY:MODELS TO AVOID VOLCANIC ASH • JET AIRCRAFT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENGINE FAILURE AND FREE FALL WHEN FLYING THROUGH AN ASH CLOUD.

38. LAVA DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL • LAVA FLOWS CAN NOT BE PRE-VENTED FROM OCCURRING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS INTO THE OCEAN

39. PURPOSE COMPUTER MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL-CANO, OR A SPECIFIC HAZARD (E.G., ASH DISTRIBUTION) TECHNIQUE REAL TIME MONITORING ERUPTION HISTORY OF A VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

40. EXAMPLE: COMPUTER MODELS OF SELECTED ACTIVE VOLCANOES • PRECURSORS TO EXPECT • LIKELY EXPLOSIVENESS • LIKELY SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS

41. COMPUTER MODELS: MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION

42. LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL • LAHARS CAN NOT BE PREVENTED FROM OCCUR-RING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS.

43. PURPOSE URBAN PLANNING EVACUATION TECHNIQUE MAPS: LAVA AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

44. EXAMPLE: MOUNT MERAPI EVACUATION PLAN • 11,000 from three districts were evacuated to schools and other designated emergency shelters.

45. MANY CHOSE TO EVACUATE • Many citizens chose to evacuate, as was ordered. • Many villagers remembered the 1994 disaster and did not want to repeat it.

46. MANY CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE • Many citizens chose not to evacuate because shelters are boring and they needed to provide for livestock and tend crops.