Lecture 3 Supply and Demand

1. Lecture 3 Supply and Demand • Market • The law of demand, shifts vs. movements along the demand curve, factors that shift the demand curve • The law of supply, shifts vs. movements along the supply curve, factors that shift the supply curve • Equilibrium: putting demand and supply together • What happens when demand curve or supply curve shifts?

2. Supply and Demand • Supply and demand is an economic model • Designed to explain how prices are determined in certain types of markets • The price of a good or service is what must be given in exchange for the good. Price measures the scarcity. Prices provide our economy with incentives to use scarce resources efficiently.

3. Markets • Specific location where buying and selling takes place, such as • Supermarket or a flea market • In economics, a market is not a place but rather • A group of buyers and sellers with the potential to trade with each other • Economists think of the economy as a collection of individual markets • First step in an economic analysis is to define and characterize the market or collection of markets to analyze, Markets can be defined broadly or narrowly, depending on our purpose.

4. Buyers and Sellers • Buyers and sellers in a market can be • Households • Business firms • Government agencies • All three can be both buyers and sellers in the same market, but are not always • For purposes of simplification this text will usually follow these guidelines • In markets for consumer goods, we’ll view business firms as the only sellers, and households as only buyers • In most of our discussions, we’ll be leaving out the “middleman”

5. Competition in Markets • Perfectly competitive markets have many small buyers and sellers, e.g., farmer’s market, big city hot dog market • Each is a small part of the market, and the product is standardized, and each buyer and seller takes the market price as a given • Imperfectly competitive markets have just a few large buyers and sellers, e.g., local electricity company • The product of each seller is unique in some way, each buyer or seller has some influence over the price.

6. Using Supply and Demand • Supply and demand model is designed to explain how prices are determined in perfectly competitive markets • Perfect competition is rare but many markets come reasonably close • Perfect competition is a matter of degree rather than an all or nothing characteristic • Supply and demand is one of the most versatile and widely used models in the economist’s tool kit

7. Demand • A household’s quantity demanded of a good • Specific amount household would choose to buy over some time period, given • A particular price that must be paid for the good • All other constraints on the household • Market quantity demanded (or quantity demanded) is the specific amount of a good that all buyers in the market would choose to buy over some time period, given • A particular price they must pay for the good • All other constraints on households

8. Quantity Demanded • Implies a choice • How much households would like to buy when they take into account the opportunity cost of their decisions? • Is hypothetical • Makes no assumptions about availability of the good • How much would households want to buy, at a specific price, given real-world limits on their spending power? • Stresses price • Price of the good is one variable among many that influences quantity demanded • We’ll assume that all other influences on demand are held constant, so we can explore the relationship between price and quantity demanded

9. The Law of Demand • States that when the price of a good rises and everything else remains the same, the quantity of the good demanded will fall (e.g., air travel, magazines, education, etc) • The words, “everything else remains the same” are important • In the real world many variables change simultaneously • However, in order to understand the economy we must first understand each variable separately • Thus we assume that, “everything else remains the same,” in order to understand how demand reacts to price

10. The Demand Schedule and The Demand Curve • Demand schedule • A list showing the quantity of a good that consumers would choose to purchase at different prices, with all other variables held constant • The market demand curve (or just demand curve) shows the relationship between the price of a good and the quantity demanded , holding constant all other variables that influence demand • Each point on the curve shows the total buyers would choose to buy at a specific price • Law of demand tells us that demand curves virtually always slope downward

11. Demand Schedule for Maple Syrup in U.S.A.

12. Price per Bottle When the price is $4.00 per bottle, 40,000 bottles are demanded (point A). At $2.00 per bottle, 60,000 bottles are demanded (point B). Number of Bottles per Month Figure 1: The Demand Curve A $4.00 B 2.00 D 40,000 60,000

13. Shifts vs. Movements Along The Demand Curve • A change in the price of a good causes a movement along the demand curve • In Figure 1 • A fall (rise) in price would cause a movement to the right (left) along the demand curve • A change in income causes a shift in the demand curve itself (Figure1, assume annual average U.S. household income $40,000; Figure, change from $40-$50,000 ) • In Figure 2 • Demand curve has shifted to the right of the old curve (from Figure 1) as income has risen • A change in any variable that affects demand—except for the good’s price—causes the demand curve to shift

14. An increase in income shifts the demand curve for maple syrup from D1 to D2. At each price, more bottles are demanded after the shift Price per Bottle D2 D1 Number of Bottles per Month Figure 2: A Shift of The Demand Curve B C $2.00 60,000 80,000

15. Dangerous Curves: “Change in Quantity Demanded” vs. “Change in Demand” • Language is important when discussing demand • “Quantity demanded” means • A particular amount that buyers would choose to buy at a specific price • It is a number represented by a single point on a demand curve • When a change in the price of a good moves us along a demand curve, it is a change in quantity demand • The term demand means • The entire relationship between price and quantity demanded—and represented by the entire demand curve • When something other than price changes, causing the entire demand curve to shift, it is a change in demand

16. Income: Factors That Shift The Demand Curve • An increase in income has effect of shifting demand for normal goods to the right • However, a rise in income shifts demand for inferior goods to the left • Examples: housing, automobiles, health club memberships, etc. • A rise in income will increase the demand for a normal good, and decrease the demand for an inferior good (e.g. instant noodles).

17. Wealth: Factors That Shift The Demand Curve • Your wealth—at any point in time—is the total value of everything you own minus the total dollar amount you owe • An increase in wealth will • Increase demand (shift the curve rightward) for a normal good • Decrease demand (shift the curve leftward) for an inferior good

18. Prices of Related Goods: Factors that Shift the Demand Curve • Substitute—good that can be used in place of some other good and that fulfills more or less the same purpose, e.g., different types of meat • A rise in the price of a substitute increases the demand for a good, shifting the demand curve to the right • Complement—used together with the good we are interested in, e.g., pancake mix and maple syrup • A rise in the price of a complement decreases the demand for a good, shifting the demand curve to the left

19. Other Factors That Shift the Demand Curve • Population • As the population increases in an area • Number of buyers will ordinarily increase • Demand for a good will increase • Expected Price • An expectation that price will rise (fall) in the future shifts the current demand curve rightward (leftward) • Tastes • Combination of all the personal factors that go into determining how a buyer feels about a good • When tastes change toward a good, demand increases, and the demand curve shifts to the right • When tastes change away from a good, demand decreases, and the demand curve shifts to the left

20. Price Price increase moves us leftward alongdemand curve Price increase moves us rightwardalongdemand curve Quantity Figure 3(a): Movements Along and Shifts of The Demand Curve P2 P1 P3 Q2 Q1 Q3

21. Price Quantity Figure 3(b): Movements Along and Shifts of The Demand Curve • Entire demand curve shifts rightward when: • income or wealth ↑ • price of substitute ↑ • price of complement ↓ • population ↑ • expected price ↑ • tastes shift toward good D2 D1

22. Price Quantity Figure 3(c): Movements Along and Shifts of The Demand Curve • Entire demand curve shifts leftward when: • income or wealth ↓ • price of substitute ↓ • price of complement ↑ • population ↓ • expected price ↓ • tastes shift toward good D1 D2

23. Supply • A firm’s quantity supplied of a good is the specific amount its managers would choose to sell over some time period, given • A particular price for the good • All other constraints on the firm • Market quantity supplied (or quantity supplied) is the specific amount of a good that all sellers in the market would choose to sell over some time period, given • A particular price for the good • All other constraints on firms

24. Quantity Supplied • Implies a choice • Quantity that gives firms the highest possible profits when they take account of the constraints presented to them by the real world • Is hypothetical • Does not make assumptions about firms’ ability to sell the good • How much would firms’ managers want to sell, given the price of the good and all other constraints they must consider? • Stresses price • The price of the good is just one variable among many that influences quantity supplied • We’ll assume that all other influences on supply are held constant, so we can explore the relationship between price and quantity supplied

25. The Law of Supply • States that when the price of a good rises and everything else remains the same, the quantity of the good supplied will rise • The words, “everything else remains the same” are important • In the real world many variables change simultaneously • However, in order to understand the economy we must first understand each variable separately • We assume “everything else remains the same” in order to understand how supply reacts to price

26. The Supply Schedule and The Supply Curve • Supply schedule—shows quantities of a good or service firms would choose to produce and sell at different prices, with all other variables held constant • Supply curve—graphical depiction of a supply schedule • Shows quantity of a good or service supplied at various prices, with all other variables held constant

27. Price per Bottle When the price is $2.00 per bottle, 40,000 bottles are supplied (point F). At $4.00 per bottle, quantity supplied is 60,000 bottles(pointG). Number of Bottles per Month Figure 4: The Supply Curve S $4.00 G 2.00 F 40,000 60,000

28. Shifts vs. Movements Along the Supply Curve • A change in the price of a good causes a movement along the supply curve • In Figure 4 • A rise (fall) in price would cause a rightward (leftward) movement along the supply curve • A drop in transportation costs will cause a shift in the supply curve itself • In Figure 5 • Supply curve has shifted to the right of the old curve (from Figure 4) as transportation costs have dropped • A change in any variable that affects supply—except for the good’s price—causes the supply curve to shift

29. A decrease in transportation costs shifts the supply curve for maple syrup from S1 to S2. Price per Bottle At each price, more bottles are supplied after the shift Number of Bottles per Month Figure 5: A Shift of The Supply Curve S1 S2 $4.00 J G 60,000 80,000

30. Factors That Shift the Supply Curve • Input prices • A fall (rise) in the price of an input causes an increase (decrease) in supply, shifting the supply curve to the right (left) • Price of Related Goods • When the price of an alternate good rises (falls), the supply curve for the good in question shifts rightward (leftward) • Technology • Cost-saving technological advances increase the supply of a good, shifting the supply curve to the right

31. Factors That Shift the Supply Curve • Number of Firms • An increase (decrease) in the number of sellers—with no other changes—shifts the supply curve to the right (left) • Expected Price • An expectation of a future price increase (decrease) shifts the current supply curve to the left (right)

32. Factors That Shift the Supply Curve • Changes in weather • Favorable weather • Increases crop yields • Causes a rightward shift of the supply curve for that crop • Unfavorable weather • Destroys crops • Shrinks yields • Shifts the supply curve leftward • Other unfavorable natural events may effect all firms in an area • Causing a leftward shift in the supply curve

33. Price Price increase moves us rightward alongsupply curve Price increase moves us leftwardalongsupply curve Quantity Figure 6(a): Changes in Supply and in Quantity Supplied S P2 P1 P3 Q3 Q1 Q2

34. Price Quantity Figure 6(b): Changes in Supply and in Quantity Supplied S1 • Entire supply curve shifts rightward when: • price of input↓ • price of alternate good ↓ • number of firms ↑ • expected price ↑ • technological advance • favorable weather S2

35. Price Quantity Figure 6(c): Changes in Supply and in Quantity Supplied S2 • Entire supply curve shifts rightward when: • price of input↑ • price of alternate good ↑ • number of firms ↓ • expected price ↑ • unfavorable weather S1

36. In Summary: Factors That Shift The Supply Curve • The short list of shift-variables for supply that we have discussed is far from exhaustive • In some cases, even the threat of such events can cause serious effects on production • Basic principle is always the same • Anything that makes sellers want to sell more or less of a good at any given price will shift supply curve

37. Equilibrium: Putting Supply and Demand Together • When a market is in equilibrium • Both price of good and quantity bought and sold have settled into a state of rest • The equilibrium price and equilibrium quantity are values for price and quantity in the market but, once achieved, will remain constant • Unless and until supply curve or demand curve shifts • The equilibrium price and equilibrium quantity can be found on the vertical and horizontal axes, respectively • At point where supply and demand curves cross

38. 2. causes the price to rise . . . 3. shrinking the excess demand . . . Price per Bottle 4. until price reaches its equilibrium value of $3.00 . Number of Bottles per Month 1. At a price of $1.00 per bottle an excess demand of 50,000 bottles . . . Figure 7: Market Equilibrium S E $3.00 H J 1.00 Excess Demand D 25,000 50,000 75,000

39. Excess Demand: Putting Supply and Demand Together • Excess demand • At a given price, the excess of quantity demanded over quantity supplied • Price of the good will rise as buyers compete with each other to get more of the good than is available

40. 1. At a price of $5.00 per bottle an excess supply of 30,000 bottles . . . Price per Bottle 3. shrinking the excess supply . . . 2. causes the price to drop, 4. until price reaches its equilibrium value of $3.00. Number of Bottles per Month Figure 8: Excess Supply and Price Adjustment Excess Supply at $5.00 S $5.00 L K E 3.00 D 35,000 50,000 65,000

41. Excess Supply: Putting Supply and Demand Together • Excess Supply • At a given price, the excess of quantity supplied over quantity demanded • Price of the good will fall as sellers compete with each other to sell more of the good than buyers want

42. Income Rises: What Happens When Things Change • Income rises, causing an increase in demand • Rightward shift in the demand curve causes rightward movement along the supply curve • Equilibrium price and equilibrium quantity both rise • Shift of one curve causes a movement along the other curve to new equilibrium point

43. 3. to a new equilibrium. 4. Equilibrium price increases Price per Bottle 2. moves us along the supply curve . . . 1. An increase in demand . . . Number of Bottles of Maple Syrup per Period 5. and equilibrium quantity increases too. Figure 9 S F' $4.00 E 3.00 D2 D1 50,000 60,000

44. An Ice Storm Hits: What Happens When Things Change • An ice storm causes a decrease in supply • Weather is a shift variable for supply curve • Any change that shifts the supply curve leftward in a market will increase the equilibrium price • And decrease the equilibrium quantity in that market

45. Price per Bottle Number of Bottles Figure 10: A Shift of Supply and A New Equilibrium S2 S1 E' $5.00 3.00 E D 35,000 50,000

46. Price per Handheld PC 3. moved the market to a new equilibrium. 2. and a decrease in demand . . . 4. Price decreased . . . 1. An increase in supply . . . Millions of Handheld PCs per Quarter 5. and quantity decreased as well. Figure 11: Changes in the Market for Handheld PCs S2002 S2003 A $500 B $400 D2002 D2003 2.45 3.33

47. Both Curves Shift • When just one curve shifts (and we know the direction of the shift) we can determine the direction that both equilibrium price and quantity will move • When both curves shift (and we know the direction of the shifts) we can determine the direction for either price or quantity—but not both • Direction of the other will depend on which curve shifts by more

48. The Three Step Process • Key Step 1—Characterize the Market • Decide which market or markets best suit problem being analyzed and identify decision makers (buyers and sellers) who interact there • Key Step 2—Find the Equilibrium • Describe conditions necessary for equilibrium in the market, and a method for determining that equilibrium • Key Step 3—What Happens When Things Change • Explore how events or government polices change market equilibrium

49. Using Supply and Demand: The Invasion of Kuwait • Why did Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait cause the price of oil to rise? • Immediately after the invasion, United States led a worldwide embargo on oil from both Iraq and Kuwait • A significant decrease in the oil industry’s productive capacity caused a shift in the supply curve to the left • Price of oil increased

50. Price per Barrel of Oil Barrels of Oil Figure 12: The Market For Oil S2 S1 E' P2 E P1 D Q2 Q1