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Early Insights on the Reference Design Report for ILC-GDE: Collaborative Cost Analysis

This document outlines the early thoughts on the Reference Design Report (RDR) coordinated by Peter H. Garbincius and the GDE Design/Cost Board during a meeting in Frascati, Italy. It discusses the organization, mission statement, and operational structure of the Design Cost Board, emphasizing the need for thorough cost estimates, scope, and deliverables in preparation for the RDR's final publication deadline. Key contributions from various groups and the importance of collaboration and ongoing updates to cost estimates are highlighted to ensure a successful project outcome.

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Early Insights on the Reference Design Report for ILC-GDE: Collaborative Cost Analysis

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  1. Early Thoughts on theReference Design Report Peter H. Garbincius for the GDE Design / Cost Board ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  2. Barry showed the overall organization for RDR yesterday: ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  3. GDE Design/Cost Board: Peter H. Garbincius*, Chairman, Wilhelm Bialowons*, Atsushi Enomoto, Jean-Pierre Delahaye,Robert Kephart, Olivier Napoly, Ewan Paterson, Nan Phinney, Tetsuo Shidara*, and Nobuhiro Terunuma (* = Cost Engineering Group) With backup by the Accelerator Physics Group: Tor Raubenheimer, Nick Walker, Kaoru Yokoya ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  4. Design / Cost BoardMission Statementagain, from Barry, yesterday ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  5. Preparation of the Reference Design Report • Design Cost Board will provide guidance and structure, define depth requirements for the elements of cost effort, develop, advise, lead, review, and manage the preparation of RDR. • Area Systems Groups are led by full-time teams, coordinate Technical & Global System Groups, and are responsible for providing detailed designs, text, and cost estimates • Work together with Change Control Board, R&D Board, and Cost Engineering Team • Final Publication Deadline: end of 2006 ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  6. Interaction w Area System Groups • DCB soon has to tell them what we need. • Gotta make sure they have the manpower resources to do the job on the needed schedule. • Determine scope, schedules, goals, and deliverables. DCB definitely reviews and approves! will require monthly reports ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  7. the RDR Design Matrix ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  8. one-line attributes for cost est. • inclusive – can’t neglect anything important • “parametric” – quantities, escalation, overheads, labor rates, cost vs size or performance (e.g. gradient) • Barry - how does cost vary with a performance parameter? e.g. # bunches? • bottom-up – some elements, but many will be top-down, scaled, parametric, etc. • flexible – easily follow any scope changes !!! ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  9. Global issues will be important thanks Jonathan! • Can’t leave anything out: follow all items from conception, design, procurement, testing, inventory, material handling, installation, commissioning… • Be careful at boundaries, interfaces, and hand-offs between groups & systems • Performance requirements & specs will determine engineering effort at cost • Make sure you specify what you need, but don’t over-specify (driving up costs) ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  10. Quality of evolving cost estimate • Use whatever we have at any given time: e.g. today we have TESLA TDR & USLCTOS • Update as new and better info is available a “living” document • Need to carry along status & date of estimate & “basis of estimate” tag for each element • Goal is to get adequate and sufficient cost estimate for RDR deadline ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  11. We do have some prior examples • NLC Copper Book, TESLA TDR, GLC, and the USLC Options Study • We should review the approach and adopt what is good while improving what is not ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  12. Tor sent suggested WBS - PHG updated (112 active cost packages at this time)will expand to > 1000 internal elements ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

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  15. OK, what did we leave out, what do we do next? • Exploit our collective project management experience, both within and external to ILC • Your input and collective wisdom are vital elements in this process! Please help us prepare the RDR! ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  16. End Presentation Backup Slides to Follow ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  17. What information do we need? • Scope (text/pix), Cost Estimates, Schedule • Schedule – input to cost estimates, e.g. needing 600 klystrons over 5 years may be substantially more expensive than same 600 klystrons over 8 years • Two funding models: (differ betw regions) technically limited (no time constraint) or flat funding – same # $ per year ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  18. Cost Estimate Elements • How many parallel estimates do we need (from Asia, Americas, Europe)? 3 or 4 or 5 site studies! • How do you handle multiple inputs into determining “value”? • World-market cost for common items, must do studies for unique elements ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  19. Industrial Cost Estimate Studies • TESLA – content and cost estimates confidential Dieter Trines promised copy of tender for studies I requested reports without costs – did not say yes/no • XFEL – will have CryoModule Assembly and RF Coupler studies back by mid-2006 content will be public, cost est confidential B. Petersen & T. Garvey will send copies of tender • U.S. Studies – cavities, CM, coupler, CFS ? not before latter half of 2006 at earliest • Asian Studies – content and status? ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  20. Will Industrial Studies be useful? • Will they be in time to be useful for RDR? • Will we get any lower level cost estimates? or just total cost of XFEL Main Linac? • How can we insure confidentiality of sensitive cost information? We surely don’t want to bias XFEL bidding! ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  21. Nitty-Gritty • What is in/out of cost estimate? • How do we present cost/value? as the lowest value (world-market) average value, range of estimate, probabilistic? 90% CL? • What about different SITE-dependent ests? • Gotta DOCUMENT what we are presenting & provide a translation guide for each region ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  22. WWS Group led by Hitoshi Yamamoto and Jim Brau • Preparing major physics sections: • The Physics case for the ILC • Detectors – incorporating 3 ideas • Simulations of machine & detector interaction: • Detector performance, resolution, backgrounds initially using model of beam: phase space, momentum spread, disruption, etc. will soon need fully simulated beam ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  23. Value (rather than cost) approach • Value is worth to the ILC project, rather than worth to contributing country • Approach developed by ITER (R. Aymar) vetted through Dan Lehman (US DOE) • Countries bid to provide some piece of project and not funds. Internally apply their own overheads, contingency, and labor rates to determine their cost, without changing value • Yes, ITER has common fund (some % of value assessment–acts as management contingency) ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  24. ITER used 100 cost packages • ITER assigned “value units” to only ~ 100 cost packages a pretty high level WBS roll-up many more lower level items had to have been cost estimated and rolled-up to form these packages • upon which member countries could bid • Does that number make sense for ILC-RDR? ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  25. Although some people will tell you that they know exactly how we should define “value”, • I don’t think we can possibly know at this beginning stage. • We don’t want to leave anything out, or close avenues, so we should gather all reasonable information from multiple studies, and combine/average/select only when we better understand the trade-offs of how to present cost or value. ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

  26. Program Management Tools • for Project Definition: EXCEL, SLAC WBS, MS Project • we will eventually need to migrate to a more powerful, integrated cost & schedule management system • Primavera is the choice at SLAC, ANL, JLab, but not at Fermilab, DESY, KEK, CERN, DESY maybe not so useful for project definition costs: licenses, business computing support “experts” (consultants), users (us) learning curves for us using sophisticated tool will show that we are serious players ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

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