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Structural Roots of Japan’s Malaise. Richard Katz The Oriental Economist Report Rbkatz@ix.netcom.com. Brookings Institution April 9, 2002. I. How Bad Is It?. Private Recovery Never Happened. Five-Year Growth Turning Negative. Japan’s Lost Decade vs. Others’.
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Structural Roots of Japan’s Malaise Richard Katz The Oriental Economist Report Rbkatz@ix.netcom.com Brookings Institution April 9, 2002
Lost GDP: ¾ Supply, ¼ Demand The horizontal zero line shows where GDP would be if 1975-90 growth had continued. Grey area shows lost GDP due to demand shortfall. Black area shows lost GDP due to slowdown in potential growth—not counting slowdown in labor force growth which is shown in diagonal stripes.
Koizumi Budget: Asking For Trouble Since stimulus operates with a lag, the chart shows how changes in GDP follow from changes in the deficit one year earlier. 1998 shows GDP growth in 1998 and budget change in 1997.