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Enhanced Precipitation Prediction System for Pacific Islands Using NCEP's CFS

This project focuses on developing a robust precipitation prediction system for the Pacific Islands that leverages the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS). By analyzing MJO influences, non-ENSO factors, and other ocean basin dynamics, the aim is to enhance forecasting accuracy and extend prediction ranges. The study includes diagnostics on CFS hindcast history, statistical error corrections, and verification against observations to transition to a more reliable forecasting tool. The significance of Indian Ocean SST in global climate predictability is underscored through simulations and analysis.

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Enhanced Precipitation Prediction System for Pacific Islands Using NCEP's CFS

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  1. Development of an Extended and Long-range Precipitation Prediction System over the Pacific Islands “based on the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System (CFS)” H. Annamalai1, A. Kumar2 and M. Lander3 1. International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, USA 2. Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, Washington D.C, USA 3. Water and Environmental Research Institute, University of Guam, USA

  2. Motivation • Current operational forecast USAPI – derived from empirical techniques that depends on ENSO (He and Barnston 1996; flavors of ENSO?) • Extended range – MJO (Seo et al. 2007) • Non-ENSO influence (Oct-Dec 2005) • Other ocean basins (during ENSO)

  3. MJO Influence on rainfall over Micronesian Islands Days (June 2003- June 2004) MJO modulates the monsoon trough over tropical western Pacific

  4. Oct-Dec 2005 Precip. anomalies Non-ENSO Oct-Dec 2005 SST anomalies

  5. Composite 500hPa Height Anomalies (JFM) Observed Rain ~ 0.0 during El Nino years “ intense rain over Hawaii” Wave number 4-5 Observed Rain > 4 std during El Nino years Annamalai and Hafner (2008)

  6. Objectives and Deliverables • perform in-depth diagnostics on the extensive CFS hindcast history • available at the NCEP (Years 1,2) • identify and apply statistical corrections on the systematic errors in the CFS • (Year 2) • assess and verify CFS hindcast and forecast skill against observations, and • compare this skill against the baseline predictions based on the operational • empirical tool currently used at the CPC (Year 2) • develop and transition a precipitation prediction system to NCEP (Year 3) • reevaluate skill for the next generation of the CFS that is projected • to be released in 2010 (Year 3)

  7. TIO Forcing LBM TIO Forcing (CCSR) Obs. Rainfall > 4 std TIP minus TPO (ECHAM5) “Highlights the importance of Indian Ocean SST in global climate predictability”

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