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Droughts Are Forever! Our Future Is Definitely Water Efficiency!

Explore the reality of droughts, their impact on our water supply, and the need for water efficiency measures. Discover the history, science, and solutions to combat droughts and ensure a sustainable water future.

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Droughts Are Forever! Our Future Is Definitely Water Efficiency!

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  1. PEER TO PEER 2019 Droughts Are Forever! Our Future Is Definitely Water Efficiency! Bill Patzert wpatzert6@gmail.com 15 May 2019

  2. Past (Drought Our Karma) And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, And during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way. - John Steinbeck, East of Eden (1952)

  3. Present (Drought Solutions) ”Water problems in the western United States can seem tantalizingly easy to solve: all we need to do is turn off the fountains at the Bellagio, stop selling alfalfa to China, ban golf, cut down all the almond trees, and kill all the lawyers.” – David Owen (2017)

  4. Science (Drought Reality) The history of American West written in droughts! “California is always on the verge of a drought.” Bill Patzert - 2019

  5. WHAT IS DROUGHT? Droughts normal in all climatic zones & happen in every U.S. state! • Common Sense - less than ‘normal’ rain • Scientific – departure from history • Agriculture - crop reduction/damage • Urban – reduced H2O deliveries/rationing • Environ – stressed plant & animal ecosystems • Management - depletion of water reserves • Legal – H2O allocation conflicts/lawyer’s delight • Unsustainable use of our H2O supplies Present droughts have a huge human footprint!

  6. DROUGHTS ARE LARGE!

  7. Downtown Los Angeles Rainfall 1945 – 2019 Decades of Droughts & Deluges! DROUGHTS ARE LONG! DRY 12.9” 2017

  8. California’s Recent 2018-2018 Severe Drought Wet 1 yr Driest 5 yrs Wet 1 yr Dry 5 yrs Drier 4 yrs DROUGHTS WAX & WANE!

  9. Los Angeles’ five-year rainfall total hits bottom 2011-2016 marked the driest five consecutive rainy seasons on record in downtown L.A. RECORD! 38.89 inches* 2011-2016 2011-2016 driest 5 years in modern history! 45.80 1958-1963 45.95 1895-1890 46.65 1946-1951 47.45 1897-1902 *Normal would be 75.0 inches

  10. Drought Recovery? That was Quick!

  11. Downtown Los Angeles Rainfall 2017 – 2019 Average is 15”/yr Drought Yr Rain (inches) Out 2017 = 19.00” In 2018 = 4.78” (3rd Driest) Out 2019 = 18.04” Not spectacular. What’s actually happening?

  12. WESTERN U.S. DROUGHT BEGAN 20 YEARS AGO!

  13. Lake Mead = Bill’s Drought Gauge Solution: Use less H2O! Seven States Just Signed Agreement To Take Less Colorado River H2O! 20 Year Drop! RECORD! Hits Historical Low Level! Lake Mead’s elevation at the end of the 2019 calendar year is projected to be at 1,085 feet above sea level, nearly 10 feet above the shortage determination trigger of 1,075 feet.

  14. San Gabriel Valley Municipal Water District Groundwater Elevation Baldwin Park Key Well Our Groundwater Dropped 100 feet In Past 20 yrs. RECORD!

  15. 85% of SoCal’s rainfall sleeps with the fishes! SoCal engineered for flood control, not capturing deluges!

  16. Who Consumes California H2O? Agriculture ‘Controls’ Net (Available) Water. CA H20 = Environment + Ag/Ranch + Urban/Industry Gross =25% 60% 15% Net = Endangered Species Act 80% 90% 10% 20%

  17. CA agriculture sustained by over-pumping Central Valley aquifers for past century! El Niño ‘82-’83 El Niño ‘97-’98 Central Valley Aquifer H2O is 10-20,000 years old! Being drained by >100,000 unregulated, unmetered wells!

  18. RECORD! Overdrafting of CA aquifers increasing! NASA measured the Central Valley basins, were overdrafted from 2011 to 2016. Total was 8,000,000acre feet of water/year. AQUIFER THE INFINITE AQUIFER MYTH!

  19. Ag is the 800 lb. Gorilla in CA H2O Usage!

  20. CALIFORNIA’S AGRICULTURE & RANCHING WATER CONSUMPTION • Ag/Ranch Uses 80% of Available H2O 90% • CA’s Ag/Ranch ~$50x109 (~13% US Ag) • Ag/Ranch is 2% of CA $2.5x1012 Economy* • 40% Ag/Ranch products exported • Urban/Industry Get Only 10% * California is World’s 5th Largest Economy

  21. WorldPop CA Pop Year(billions) (millions) 1900 1.8 1.5 1950 2.5 10.5 2019 7.4 40.0 L.A.-1902 It’s us! In a semi-arid region, growth creates drought! L.A.-2019

  22. California H2O Stressors Are: Imported H2O - It’s Short-Term & Shrinking! Aquifer H2O - It’s Not Shared & Shrinking! Environ/Ag/Urban – What’s Fair Balance? Long-term: ‘Big’ Drivers Are: • Natural Roller Coaster H2O Crises • Fair Allocation of H2O • Growth/Affluence/Economic Expansion • Aging Infrastructure • Climate Change

  23. Oroville Dam Tallest U.S. dam (770 feet high) Largest reservoir in CA Emergency Spillway Disaster $1 billion fix … So far!

  24. Proposition 13, An Infrastructure Disaster Decreasing property taxes equals less money going to schools, health care,infrastructure, etc.

  25. CA Droughts are Joint Ventures! • Mother Nature • Human Behavoir

  26. Present Drivers of CA Drought (Water & Temperature) 1) Natural Climate Variability - El Niño & La Niña 2) Ag/Ranch (Aquifer Depletion) 3) Population/Industry/Affluence 4) Aging Infrastructure 5) CO2-Global Warming/Drying

  27. CA WINTER (Dec-Feb) TEMPERATURES DROUGHTS GETTING HOTTER! 61 60 59 58 57 56 RECORD! California’s Hot Drought 16 15 14 13 Degrees F Degrees C CA (Global) Warming ‘Trend’ (2.5° F in 120 years) 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Warming Causes Shorter Snow Season & Melt Season Quicker … Rethink How CA H20 Is Managed & Moved!

  28. Future Drivers of CA Drought 1)CO2-Global Warming/Drying 2) Ag/Ranch (Aquifer Depletion) 3) Aging Infrastructure 4) Population/Affluence/Industry 5) Natural Climate Variability? - El Niño & La Niña

  29. Future Droughts (Climate Change) “The hydrology we’ve seen in the 20th century is not necessarily typical and likely not what we’re going to see going forward, so things are going to have to shift and evolve.” Eric Garner - 2019

  30. Bottom Line The future ain’t what it used to be. - Yogi Berra -

  31. H2O Efficiency Revolution Innovative New Technology (CA should lead World!) • Reduce, Reuse & Recycle • H2O Conservation (mostly Ag) • Wastewater Recycling • Storm water Recapture • Desalination 21st Century H2O Policy Will ‘Bust’ Future Droughts! • Plan For/Adapt To Global Warming • Embrace H2O Efficiency Revolution • Sustainably Manage Aquifer H2O • Clean Up/Use More Ground H2O • Maintain/Upgrade H2O Infrastructure

  32. Future – Dodging Droughts Reasonable Use “The premise of the reasonable use doctrine is that you do not (never) have a right to use water in an unreasonable (inefficient) manner. So that means if 75% of your current use is reasonable (efficient) and 25% of it is not, you do not have a right to that 25%. Then it is appropriate that that water go to the next person or into the general pool.” Dave Owen - 2019 NO BRAINER! WATER EFFICIENCY IS THE FUTURE! Legislate and Enforce Water Efficiency & Fair Use of Diverse H2O Sources & Adaptation to a Warming World.

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