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ALSO Danube – Impacts on a macro-economic level

The Demonstration Event held on May 27, 2003, in Linz, focused on the macro-economic impacts of the ALSO Danube project, emphasizing the development and testing of IT solutions for trade and transport analysis. It outlined trade flow predictions from 1995-2000, showcasing significant growth in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region. The evaluation highlighted the potential for modal shifts in transport, economic benefits from safer waterways, and the environmental advantages of reduced emissions. Recommendations for further enhancements in inland navigation and policy improvements were discussed.

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ALSO Danube – Impacts on a macro-economic level

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  1. ALSO Danube – Impacts on a macro-economic level Demonstration Event Linz, May 27th, 2003 Reinhold Deussner - OIR

  2. Introduction Development of IT-solutions Development of IT-solutions Development of IT-solutions Test of solutions within Demonstrators Test of solutions within Demonstrators Micro-economic evaluation Micro-economic evaluation Macro-economic evaluation Macro-economic evaluation

  3. Macro-economic evaluation

  4. Trade and Transport Prognosis Trade Flow analysis Year 1995-2000 Trade Prognosis Socio-Economic Framework Transport Infrastructure Transport Market Transport Demand Year 2000 Transport Prognosis Micro-economic evaluation ALSO Danube Scenarios Impacts of ALSO Danube solutions

  5. Transport Prognosis

  6. Trade Prognosis Trade Growth: Eastern Europe catches up• The European integration makes trade growth stronger than GDP (2 - 4% p.a.)• Growth in West and Central Europa relations continues• High growth with East Europe and Black Sea Region

  7. Trade Prognosis Change of commodity structure• High value A and B commodities leading • Low value C commodities (coal, ores) with a modest development

  8. Commodities

  9. Transport markets Transport Volume on River Danube Waterway (year 2000)

  10. Transport Prognosis: Results Transport volume by modes Export, Import, Transit - Bavaria and Austria

  11. Transport Prognosis: Results Growth rates+ Road transport ahead: consequences of liberalised transport markets and shortcomings (infrastructure, funding, transport policies) + modest Growth of Danube Waterway Transports without ALSO solutions

  12. ALSO Economic Impacts

  13. Transport Prognosis: Results ALSO solutions: The Danube gains additional 6 million tons

  14. Transport prognosis: impacts

  15. Impacts on Society and Environment Direct impacts • Calamity abatement on waterway reduces accidents and follow-up consequences • Hazardous Goods monitoring • Energy saving by more regular driving modus Indirect impacts • Modal Shift from road to inland navigation reduces global and local emissions • NOx reduction (-3 to -4% in Corridor) • noise reduction - most important in densely populated urban areas • global effects (CO2 reduction)

  16. Impact on Workforce Improved working conditions Crew on board: in the framework of a growing workload, ALSO provides assistance and relief to human operator, secures proper reaction to emergency situations Additional labour force Creation of additional labour in follow-up services: ports handling, stevedoring, national control centres, system suppliers Crew on board: minimum number regulated Education and training needs Crew: Cargo and transport management, voyage planning, navigation and calamity abatement

  17. Regional Economic Impacts Direct Effects ·    Modest due to low overall size of investment RIS along Upper Danube: 11 million EUR (administration) private operators: 10 million EUR Indirect Effects ·    Indirect effects are considerable: ALSO improves the competitiveness of inland navigation versus road transport the competitiveness of industry - thus safeguarding industrial locations (steel) reduction of external cost 

  18. Cost-benefit analysis

  19. Conclusions

  20. Conclusions

  21. Recommendations

  22. Recommendations

  23. Thanks for Your attention ! Österreichisches Institut für Raumplanung Franz-Josefs-Kai 27 A-1010 Wien tel +43 1 5338747-0  fax +43 1 5338747-66 deussner@oir.at www.oir.at

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