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Transit-Oriented Development in Prince George’s County

Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority. Transit-Oriented Development in Prince George’s County. Objectives. Quantify and qualify the nature of regional development trends Review the benefits of Transit Oriented Development

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Transit-Oriented Development in Prince George’s County

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  1. Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority Transit-Oriented Development in Prince George’s County

  2. Objectives Quantifyandqualifythe nature of regional development trends Reviewthe benefits of Transit Oriented Development Ground truththe anecdotal information prevalent in the marketplace Highlight preliminary key findings and implications

  3. Real Benefits of Transit Oriented Development

  4. Mixed-Use + TOD = Greater Long-Term Value SOURCE: The Brookings Institution

  5. Transit Investments Create Value Smart Growth Infrastructure = Upside Potential Summary of National Case Study Data – Transit Premiums on Land Values Apartment Condo Office

  6. DC/MD/VA Metro Area ½ Mile from Metro Station Data SOURCE: RCLCO, CLARITAS

  7. Prince George’s County ½ Mile from Metro Data SOURCE: RCLCO, CLARITAS

  8. Montgomery County ½ Mile from Metro Data SOURCE: RCLCO, CLARITAS

  9. Virginia ½ Mile from Metro Data SOURCE: RCLCO, CLARITAS

  10. Higher density yields exponentially higher tax revenues to Prince George’s County 1 1/Includes tax revenues generated from property and income taxes

  11. Subsidy will be needed across most land uses to close funding gap For-Sale Residential For-Rent Residential Retail Office

  12. Green Line Capture of Regional Growth

  13. Densification Already Underway The Region Is Reorienting Its Growth Patterns About20% ofthe region’s household growth between 2005 and 2015 is currently taking place within walkable, urban, transit-oriented areas. The growth of Gen Y,increased demand forTransit-Oriented Developmentand demand for sophisticated urbanityin part driving this trend. Source: MWCOG Regional Activity Centers, RCLCO

  14. Core to Add Nearly 150,000 HHS by 2030HH Growth driven by Gen Y, Millennials The D.C. region’s historical Favored Quarter has emanated due west. Growth in the post 1960s period followed this trajectory. Boomers and retirees may continue to favor the westward trajectory of historical growth. Younger households and new economy employment is redrawing the investment map. Gen X and Gen Y are driving demand for urban locations. Bulk of household growth through 2030 driven by 18-34 year old households.

  15. Green Line is Region’s Growth Corridor Setting the Bar for Urban and TOD Over the past ten years, multifamily unitsadded near Green Line Corridor station areas outpaced Northwest D.C. Red Line station areas.

  16. The New 100% Location? Some Green Line Stations Set Top-Of-Market Prices By 2010, the for-sale multifamily pricing at certain Green Line stations caught up to and even eclipsed pricing in the top of market, high-priced Dupont Circle neighborhood.

  17. Jobs – The Green Line Effect The Green Line – A Magnet for High-Wage Jobs Of the 24,600 net new jobs added to the District of Columbia between 2004 and 2010, 11,200 of them were added within a quarter mile of the Green Line station areas. That represents 46% of the city’s total employment growth.

  18. Jobs – The Green Line Effect The Green Line – A Magnet for High-Wage Jobs ` Real Estate, Legal, Architecture,Engineering, Management, andScientific/Technicaljobs all gravitated to the station areas under investigation in numbers that werefar in excess of their capture in either NW D.C. Red Line station areas in D.C., Orange Line station areas in D.C., or the R-B corridor in Virginia. ` `

  19. Economic and Demographic Prince George’s County

  20. HH Growth in TOD LOCATIONS Concentrated in Favored Quarter in Last Decade Total Household Growth in TOD Areas 2000-2010 Total Household Growth in TOD Areas 1990-2000 Neg. HH Growth 1-250 New HH 251-500 New HH 501-1,000 New HH >1,000 New HH Source: ESRI

  21. Household Growth Projections Little to No Growth Projected for Prince George’s County Total Household Growth Projected by TAZ 2010-2030 Households Lost 0- 500 HH Gained 501 – 1,000 HHs Gained 1,001 – 2,000 HHs Gained More than 2,000 HH Gained Source: MW COG Round 8.0 Forecasting

  22. Home Value ComparisonEmpirical Evidence of TOD Premium in DC MSA Median Home Value Comparison 2000-2010 144% 88% Source: ESRI

  23. County Metro Stations Losing Office Jobs • Regionally, 13.8% of MSA total employment growth (excl. Wash DC) occurred in TOD locations. In Prince George’s County, only 3.8% of County growth was near a metro station. • Trend is even more pronounced in office employment: • 12% of MSA office employment located near transit. • Prince George’s TOD locations LOST 2,180 office jobs, despite an overall county gain of 1,970. Total Employment Growth in TOD Areas 2004-2010 Office Employment Growth in TOD Areas 2004-2010 12.8% -149% 13.8% 3.8% Source: InfoUSA; ESRI

  24. Job Growth ProjectionsOpportunity to Capture Regional Growth Total Employment Growth Projected by TAZ 2010-2030 Jobs Lost 0-500 Jobs Gained 500-2,000 Jobs Gained 2,000 – 3,000 Jobs Gained 3,000+ Jobs Gained Source: MW COG Round 8.0 Forecasting

  25. Certain Office Users Prefer TOD LocationsPrince George’s Losing Out Contribution to Total Job Growth for Office-Using Employment Sectors 2004-2010 Source: InfoUSA; ESRI

  26. Opportunities and Barriers to Investment Around Prince George’s County Green Line Stations

  27. GSA Will Not Save the Day for Prince George’s County Need to Make the Case Agency by Agency • Agency directors make site selection calls more so than GSA • Agencies are looking for: • Amenities for workers (near-by restaurants and coffee shops, attractive streetscape) • Safety • Proximity to employees’ place of residence • Synergy with nearby agencies • GSA is looking for: • County Commitment • Financing in place (TIF, other incentive committed) • County or State commitment to take new office space (e.g. MD Housing & Community Development helped secure IRS in the new Forest City development at New Carrolton) • GSA agreement with WMATA is opportunity for Branch Ave. and Naylor Rd. Metro TOD GSA Office Lease Renewal Schedule Prince George’s County 1.9MM SF of GSA Office Space in Prince George’s County

  28. Growing Federal Anchor Tenants How can study area benefit from proximity? Federal Anchors DHS Andrews AFB Census Bureau NOAA Federal DOT Bolling AFB 10-minute Drive Areas DHS; St Elizabeths Andrews AFB Overlapping Area Source: ESRI; RCLCO

  29. Public Agency Land Ownership Over 1/3 of of study area belongs to public agencies

  30. No Hierarchy of Place Scattershot Development Patterns MSA Class A Office Clusters Office Stock in Submarket by Building Class • Class A • Class B • Class C

  31. Newest Shopping Center inStudy Area Built in 1990 Select Retail Developments in Study Area 2011 Suitland Shopping Center Built 1940; 45,000 SF Sam’s Shopping Plaza Built 1985; 12,000 SF Silver Hill Shopping Center Built 1990; 32,000 SF Note: New retail defined as centers constructed after 2000. Statistics only reflect retail SF in managed retail centers. Silver Hill Station Built 1990; 36,000 SF Iverson Plaza Built 1985; 18,000 SF Marlow Heights Built 1960; 500,000 SF Source: Reis

  32. Newest Apartments in Study Area Achieving Strong Rents Select Apartment Communities in Study Area 2011 Ashton Heights, 1970 Marlborough House, 1963 Carriage Hill, 1964 Top-of-the-Hill, 1961 Station Square, 1962 Windham Creek, 1974 Metro Place at Town Center 297 units Built: 2007 6.5% Vacancy $1.70/SF Pinewood Chase, 1972 Hickory Hill, 1966 Marlow Heights I, 1930 The Verona, 1965 Marlow Plaza, 1964 Forest Hills, 1968 Marlow Heights II, 1940 Chelsea West 252 units Built: 2009 7.5% Vacancy $1.79/SF 1/ Station Square commands the highest $/SF in the Suitland station area at $1.59/SF; however, this is misrepresentative of the market as its absolute rent is a $250 discount to The Verona. Source: Reis

  33. High Permitting Costs in County Detract from New Residential Development

  34. Key Takeaways Region is growing… and recent trends demonstrate that growth will concentrate around Metro Prince George’s County has not captured its fair share of regional growth… and if we do nothing, more household and job loss is projected for the county Higher density, TOD products would generate significant tax revenues to Prince George’s… but market economics do not support development costs today GSA and private sector will not lead new office development today… but are committed to Prince George’s and look to county to signal partnership There is no shortage of retail availability in the Study Area… but the retail stock is aging and nothing new has been built since 1990 Some multi-family for-sale units around Green Line stations achieve top-of-market prices… but price appreciation in Study Area has not kept up with regional average Newer apartment stock in the Study Area commands high rents… but county impact fees make development costs infeasible

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