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Threat Analysis:

Threat Analysis:. Hamas and Hezbollah Sleeper. Cells in the United States. Justin Walker and Anahita Abdeshahian • 18 March 2009. Prepared by the Urban Warfare Analysis Center • 1821 Airport Rd. • Shawnee, OK 74804 • (405) 273-3035. Under contract with WAVE Technologies, Inc.

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Threat Analysis:

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  1. ThreatAnalysis: HamasandHezbollahSleeper CellsintheUnitedStates JustinWalkerandAnahitaAbdeshahian•18March2009 PreparedbytheUrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 UndercontractwithWAVETechnologies,Inc.

  2. U.S.ArmyResearchLaboratory Thefindingsinthisreportarenottobeconstruedasanofficial U.S.ArmyResearchLaboratoryorDepartmentoftheArmy positionunlesssodesignatedbyotherauthorizeddocuments. Citationofmanufacturer’sortradenamesdoesnotconstitutean officialendorsementorapprovaloftheusethereof. Thisreportisforpublicreleasewithunlimiteddistribution. DESTRUCTIONNOTICE:Forclassifieddocuments,follow theproceduresinDoD5220.22-M,NationalIndustrialSecurity ProgramOperatingManual,Chapter5,Section7.Forunclassified, limiteddocuments,destroybyanymethodthatwillprevent disclosureofcontentsorreconstructionofthedocument. ———————————————————————— AbouttheUrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter TheUrbanWarfareAnalysisCenterproducesinnovativeresearch andanalysisofirregularwarfareconductedinurbanenvironments. Webringtogetherpersonnelfromdiverseanalyticaldisciplines– includingscienceandtechnology,socialsciences,linguistics,and militarystudies–tocreateuniqueinsightsacrossthefullrangeof militaryoperations.TheUWACservesclientsintheDepartment ofDefense,IntelligenceCommunity,andbroadernationalsecurity arena.Foradditionalinformation,pleaseseetheUWACwebsite atwww.uwac-ok.com. “Noaspectofcollectionrequiresgreaterconsideration,orholds morepromise,thanopensourceinformation;transformationof ourapproachtoopensourcesiscriticaltothefuturesuccessof adaptivecollection.” DirectorofNationalIntelligence Vision2015Report ARL-CR-2009-151 W911QX-04-D-0013(Task5)

  3. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates ScopeNote ThisreportoutlinesthehistoryofHamasandHezbollahactivitiesintheUnitedStatesand analyzesthethreatofHamasandHezbollahsleepercellattacksonAmericansoil.Thisreport basesitsjudgmentsonopensourceresearchandsubjectmatterexpertise.Publictestimony beforetheSenateIntelligenceCommitteeandcourtdocumentsrelatedtoprosecutionofHamas andHezbollahactivitiesinAmericaarecornerstonesofthisreport.Theauthorsextendtheir gratitudetofellowUrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter(UWAC)analystsJamesBrounandJosh Lyons,aswellasindividualsfromtheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicyandtheOlin InstituteatHarvardUniversity. ExecutiveSummary ThemostlikelyfutureattackbyaHamasorHezbollahsleepercellwithinthenexttwoyears wouldcomefromaroguegroup,barringanaggressiveinvasionofIranorPalestinebyU.S. forcesthatoperationalizeHamasandHezbollahgroups.Roguecellsoftenlackthecapabilities tolaunchasophisticatedandsynchronizedattack,suggestingtheiractionswouldbemore spontaneous,opportunistic,andsmallerinscale. Thecharacteristicsofindividualgroupsframethelikelytriggers,tactics,andtargetsusedin potentialfuturesleepercellattacks.Aninfiltrationcelldescribesaforeigntrainedcellentering theUnitedStates,legallyorillegally,toperformanattackwhenorderedbytheorganization’s leadership.AhomegrowncellisacollectionofradicalizedAmericansthatbandtogetherto actinthenameofHamasorHezbollah,likelywithoutconsentfromorcommunicationwith theleadershipofeithergroup.AhybridcellinvolvesatrainedinfiltratorenteringtheUnited Statestojoinforceswithhomegrownradicals,producingthemostlethalcombinationofoutside expertiseandlocalknowledge.Anindependentcellisaroguegroupthatbreaksawayfrom thestrategicdirectiveofthemainorganization;forexample,Hezbollahmemberscrossingthe MexicanbordertoplananattackcontrarytothewishesofHezbollahleaders. Twotrendsareactingtointensifythethreatofhomegrownandhybridcells,namelyprison radicalizationandInternetindoctrination.Thelackofqualifiedimamsforprisonministryallows unqualified,radicalimamstomentorincarceratedcriminalsandsteerthemtowardaradicalized worldview.Likewise,theInternetprovidesaforumforindividualstoself-radicalizeandconnect withextremistsanywhereintheworld. HamasandHezbollahdifferfromAlQaedaintheirreluctancetodirectlyattacktheUnited States.Nonetheless,certain“triggerevents”couldinspiresleepercellsorroguegroupstotake action.MostlikelytriggersforHamasincludeAmericaninterventioninPalestine,Syria,or Iran.Othertriggersincludeashifttoaradicalizedjihadistideology,whichwouldputHamas strategicallyinlinewithAlQaeda.LesslikelytriggersforHamasincludetheimprisonmentof HamasmembersintheUnitedStatesandtheriseininfluenceofHamas’saggressivemilitary wing–theAl-QassamBrigade. -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 3

  4. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates ForHezbollah,themostlikelytriggerforsleepercellattacksintheUnitedStatesisanAmerican attackonIranorLebanon.IncreasedU.S.hostilitytowardIran,particularlyinthewakeof tensionaboutIraniannuclearcapabilities,couldtriggerapreemptivestrikebyaHezbollah sleepercell.LikeHamas,achangeinstrategicdirectiontowardglobaljihadcouldalsoleadtoa moreaggressivepostureagainsttheUnitedStates. •Homegrownandindependentcellslackthestrategicboundariesofthemore institutionalizedleadershipofHamasandHezbollah.Therefore,theactionsofsuchgroups aremoreunpredictable. •SuicideattackswouldbethemostlikelytacticbyHamas,Hezbollah,andhomegrownand independentcells.Non-suicideimprovisedexplosivedevice(IED)attacksandcombined, coordinatedattacksarelesslikelybutpossiblerelativetotheskillsetsofthesleepercell. •Astraight-lineprojectionoftargetsbasedonpastbehaviorsuggestsHamasandHezbollah wouldlikelyattackIsraeliandJewishtargets.Historically,Hamashastargetedcivilian locations,suchassupermarketsandbuses.HezbollahhasemphasizedattacksonIsraeli militaryandsecurityforces. I.CharacteristicsofHamasandHezbollahCells intheUnitedStates CurrentHamasActivitiesInsidetheUnitedStatesFocusedonFinancingandRecruiting HamasactivitieswithinAmericanbordershaveprimarilybeenlimitedtotwogoals:raising moneytofinanceoperationsintheMiddleEast,andpromotingcausesamongtheMuslim communityandpotentiallysympatheticnon-Muslimgroups.1In1993,individualsconnectedto HamasorganizedameetinginPhiladelphiatodiscussHamas’sroleintheUnitedStates.The participantsconcludedthatthefreedomsoftheUnitedStatescouldbeusedtoraisemoneyfor operationsinPalestineandmobilizeintellectualsupportatuniversitiesthroughstudentactivism. Duringthismeeting,theparticipantsconcludedthatitwasnotintheirbestinterestto“cause troublesintheAmericantheater.”2 HamasLogo Source:WikimediaCommons •Hamashasusedfrontcharities,suchastheHolyLand Foundation(HLF),tosecurefundsfortheorganizationin Palestine.3SinceSeptember2001,theU.S.government hascrackeddownondomesticfundraisingforterrorist organizationsabroad,includingtheHLF. Hamas’sleadershiphasexpressedconflictingopinionson whethertoopenamilitaryfrontagainsttheUnitedStates. ThespiritualleadershipofHamashasmaintainedthatithasno planstotargetAmericaorAmericans.Statementsaffirming containmentofHamasactivitieswithinIsraelandPalestine, however,areoftencounteredbystatementsfromHamas memberspromotingattacksagainstAmericans.Forexample, beforehisassassinationin2003,SheikhYasinechoedOsama -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 4

  5. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates binLaden’sdeclarationthatanyMuslimshouldkillanyAmericanorJew.4Al-Rantissi,Yasin’s successor,promisedthatHamaswouldstrikebackagainstIsrael’s“sponsor,”America.Members ofHamas’smilitarywing,theal-QassamBrigades,havealsodeclaredAmericaatarget,butthe politicalwingofHamasquicklydenouncessuchexpressions.5 •Intheearly1990s,someyoungAmericanHamasmembersattendedanIslamicconvention inKansasCity,Missouri.Theyweredividedintosmallclustersforlessonsinsetting carbombs,creatingimprovisedexplosives,andthrowinghandgrenades.Youthswere alsotaughtspecializedtraining,includinginterrogationandexecutionofcollaborators, surveillance,andpoliticalorganizing.6ThistrainingoccurredbeforeHamasadopted suicidebombingsasanoperationaltacticin1993. •TherehavebeenfewreportedinstancesofHamas-plannedattacksonAmericansoil.In 2003,theIsraeligovernmentcapturedaCanadian-PalestiniannamedAmedAkalinGaza. IsraeliofficialsclaimedthatAkalwastrainedbyaHamasoperativetoassassinateasenior IsraeliofficialinNewYorkandanyAmericanandCanadianJewsthatinterfered.If AkalwasindeedsponsoredbyaHamasoperative,thiswouldlikelybeanincidentofan independent,roguecelloperatingoutsideofHamas’soperationalparameters.Akaltold IsraeliauthoritiesthathewastoperformtheattackinthenameofAlQaeda.7Hamas deniedanyinvolvementwithAkal.8 “OfallthePalestiniangroups,HamashasthelargestpresenceintheU.S.witharobust infrastructure,primarilyfocusedonfundraising,propagandaforthePalestiniancause,and proselytizing.AlthoughitwouldbeamajorstrategicshiftforHamas,itsU.S.networkis theoreticallycapableoffacilitatingactsofterrorismintheU.S.” RobertMueller Director,FederalBureauofInvestigation TestimonyBeforetheSenateSelectCommitteeonIntelligence,2005 HezbollahActivitiesInsidetheUnitedStatesFocusedonIllegalFundraising Hezbollahhasengagedinsophisticatedcriminaloperationsandfund-raisingmeasuresinside theUnitedStatestopurchaseweaponsforfightersinLebanon.Forexample,Lebaneseémigrés connectedtoHezbollahpurchasedcigarettesfromNorthCarolina,shippedthemtoMichigan inrentalvans,andsoldthecigarettesataprice HezbollahFlag scheme,whichranfrom1995to2000,generated over$7millioninnetprofit.GroupsinCharlotte andDetroitcooperatedtoexploitAmerican laws,demonstratingtheingenuityandsituational awarenessofHezbollahaffiliates.9TheCharlotte cellevenrecruitedAmericandriverstohaul cartonsofcigarettestoMichigan,which suggeststheyarewillingtouseAmerican citizenstoadvanceoperations. Source:WikimediaCommons -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 5

  6. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates OneHezbollahaffiliate,YousefKourani,wassmuggledacrosstheMexicanborderandjoined theDearborn,Michigan,communityintheearly1990s.TheU.S.governmentconvicted Kouranifororganizingpropagandameetingsathishomeandforraisingthousandsofdollars thatherepatriatedbacktoLebanonforthepurchaseofhightechnologyequipment.10Inaddition toKourani’sfundraising,HezbollahhasbeenimplicatedinothercounterfeitschemesinNew Yorktoraisemoneyforoperations,suggestingthatHezbollahhasviewedtheUnitedStatesasa markettoprocurefundsforwarwithIsrael. •UnlikeHamas,Hezbollahhasdemonstratedawillingnesstoperformterroristactsbeyond theMiddleEast,reportedlyattackingU.S.militarytargetsinLebanonandIsraelitargetsin Argentina.11Hezbollah,however,deniesplanningthe1983suicidebombingoftheMarine barracksinBeirut,Lebanon.12 •Counterterrorismofficialsreportedin2006thatHezbollahhasmadeastrategicdecision torefrainfromattackingtheUnitedStates,butmayconsideranattackifIranwere threatened.13FederalBureauofInvestigation(FBI)SpecialAgentThomasFuentes,head oftheFBI’sInternationalOperations,statedthatHezbollahcellsintheUnitedStateswere fundraisingcellsandnotattack-planningcells.14 •In2006,formerFBIDirectorRobertMuellerconfirmedthatHezbollahsupportershave attemptedtocrosstheMexicanborderintotheUnitedStates.AlthoughtheFBIcaught theseoperatives,theoperationdemonstratesthatHezbollahseekstoplantoperativesinside theUnitedStates.15 •InSeptember2007,TexasHomelandSecurityDirectorTomMcCrawclaimedthat additionalterroristsaffiliatedwithHamasandHezbollahhadbeencapturedtryingtocross theMexicanborder.16 “WeassessLebaneseHezbollah,whichhasconductedanti-U.S.attacksoutsideoftheUnited Statesinthepast,maybemorelikelytoconsiderattackingthehomelandoverthenextthree yearsifitperceivestheUnitedStatesasposingadirectthreattothegrouporIran.” MikeMcConnell FormerDirectorofNationalIntelligence WrittenTestimonytoU.S.Congress,2007 II.DifferentKindsofSleeperCells Thetypeofsleepercellsuggeststhepossibleparametersthatframethetriggers,tactics,and targetsemployed.Thefourcellbreakdownsdiscussedbelow–infiltration,homegrown,hybrid, andindependent–roughlycategorizethepossiblecellidentities.HamasandHezbollahcan incorporateaspectsofallfourcategories. InfiltrationCells InfiltrationcellsaredefinedasHamasorHezbollahoperativesfromabroadenteringtheUnited Statesassleepercells.Forexample,theSeptember11thhijackerswereinfiltrationcells.Future infiltrationcellscouldtravellegallytotheUnitedStatesusingstudentvisas,ortheycouldtravel -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 6

  7. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates illegallythroughtheCanadianorMexicanborders.Infiltrationcellswouldhavedirectcontact withandinstructionsfromHamasandHezbollahoperativesintheMiddleEast.Infiltrationcells representthetraditionaldefinitionofasleepercell,astheyareactivatedontheordersofthe group’sleadership. •HezbollahhassuccessfullycreatedanoperationalinfrastructureinVenezuelaandthetri- borderregionofSouthAmerica,whichencompassesthesharedborderbetweenBrazil, Argentina,andParaguay.Trainingcampsinthetri-borderareacouldproducecellsready tomovenorthintotheUnitedStatesacrosstheMexicanborder.Inaddition,Hezbollah couldcooperatewithnarcoticsdealerstosharesmugglingroutesintotheUnitedStates, leadingtoeasierinfiltrationforHezbollahoperativesfromSouthAmerica.17 •Hezbollahusesfreeemailaccountsfortacticalplanningandtosendandreceive informationtooperatives.18Internetcommunicationgivesinfiltrationoperativesa connectiontoplannersandleadersoutsidetheUnitedStates. PossiblepathstotheUnitedStates,includingoperationsinSouthAmericacrossing Source:UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 7

  8. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates HomegrownCells HomegrowncellsarecomposedofradicalizedAmericanMuslimsthatcoalescetoformtheir ownorganization,possiblyindependentofexplicitdirectionfromHamasorHezbollah.These cellsadoptHamasorHezbollahas“sponsors,”andactintheirnamewithoutconsiderationof thelargerpoliticalgoalsoftheorganizations.Thisisoftenreferredtoas“leaderlessresistance.” ThesecellscanbecomposedofradicalizedfirstorsecondgenerationAmericanMuslims,or radicalizedconvertstoIslam,suchasRichardReidorJosePadilla,bothofwhomconvertedto Islamwhileinprison. Comparedtoinfiltrationcells,homegrowncellsaremorelikelytoberoguecellsthatemerge autonomouslyinvariouslocations.Homegrowncellscouldhavedifferenttargets,tactics, andstrategicgoalsthaninfiltrationcells.Thehomegrowncell’smotivationtoactonbehalfof HezbollahorHamascouldbedifferentfromthemotivationofinfiltrationsleepercells,which wouldlikelyattackonlybydirectorder.SincetheircorecultureisAmerican,homegrown cellsoftenpossessakeenunderstandingoftheoperationalenvironment.Ontheotherhand, homegrowncellsthatoriginateseparatelyfromtheformalorganizationalstructuremaylackthe trainingandsupportthatinfiltrationcellspossess. •AnexampleofahomegrownextremistcellistheBeltwaysniperduoofJohnAllen MuhammadandLeeBoydMalvo,whokilled10peopleintheWashington,D.C.area in2002. •Homegrowncellsactingasa“leaderlessresistance”allowleadersofHamasorHezbollah todistancetheirgroupsfromdirectblameforanattack.Conversely,theycanalsoclaim creditforasuccessfulattack. •MonitoringthemanydecentralizedhomegrowncellsstretchestheresourcesofU.S. securityserviceswhileincreasingtheabilityofthosegroupstosustainprolonged undergroundoperations.19 Americanradicalswhoadmiretheinternationalterroristorganizationbuthaveno directcontactwiththeparentgroup. Source:UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 8

  9. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates TheThreatofInternetRadicalization TerroristorganizationshaveembracedtheInternetasatooltodisseminatepropaganda.The Internetblursthenational,regional,andethnicboundariesthatpreviouslylimitedthereachof agroup’sideologyormessage.BothHamasandHezbollahhavewebsitesthatdistortregional andglobaleventstosupporttheircauses.Inaddition,individualspassionateaboutHamasand Hezbollahhavecreatedcomputer-simulatedvirtualworldsontheInternetthatdramatizethe Palestinianexperience,suchasthe“PalestinianHolocaustMemorial”inthevirtualgameSecond Life.20 Internetradicalizationcancontributetothecreationofhomegrowncells.Emotionalmultimedia presentationshaveproventoinspireindividualstoactonbehalfofthejihadistcause.For example,apostontheGlobalIslamicFrontin2003contributedtotheradicalizationofthe Madridbombers,andtwoGermanjihadistsin2006wereinspiredbyonlineradicalstoplant bombsonGermantrainsinDortmundandKoblenz.21 OneofthestarkestexamplesofthedangersofInternetradicalizationisNickReilly,ayoung, EnglishconverttoIslam.Reilly,previouslydiagnosedwithamentalillness,watchedjihadist videosthatexploitedthesufferingofPalestiniansandChechens.Whileonline,heconnected withPakistanijihadistswhopersuadedhimtoconstructasuicidebeltandmartyrhimselffor jihad.InMay2008,authoritiescapturedhimashisbombfailedtodetonateinarestaurant bathroominLondon.22 •InternetradicalizationcouldpotentiallyturnHamasandHezbollahintoglobaljihadist organizations.Thesegroupshavelimitedcontrolovertheactionsofjihadistsinspiredby theirmessageorsuccesses–realorperceived–againstIsrael.Ifenoughhomegrowncells becomeradicalizedandcommitsuccessfulattacks,theycouldwrestideologicalcontrol overthemajorityofgroupmembers,especiallyifIsraelactsmilitarilyagainsteithergroup inthefuture. HybridCells Hybridcellsincorporateprimarilyhomegrownextremistswithsomeforeign-bornandtrained infiltrators,oneofwhichispresumablytheleaderofthecell.Hybridcellsemploya“star”or “hub”terroristnetwork,meaningthatthetrainedinfiltratoractsasacentralnode,connecting toothernodesonforeignsoil.Thismethodcompartmentalizesinformationabouttheterrorist orjihadistnetwork,whichmakespenetrationbyU.S.securityservicesmoredifficult.By employingonenodetooperateinahybridcell,theabilitytoplanandsupportanattack iseasier.23Becauseinfiltrationcellslacklocalknowledgeoftheoperatingenvironment, homegrownjihadistsaidinfiltratoroperativeswithagreaterunderstandingofAmericanculture. Likewise,foreign-trainedinfiltratorspresenthands-ontacticalexpertisethathomegrowncells oftenlack.Hybridcellsposethegreatestdangertohomelandsecurity,capturingthestrengths ofinfiltrationandhomegrowncellswhilemitigatingsomeoftheweaknessesofeach. -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 9

  10. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates •TheJama’atalFuqra(JAF)organizationisanexampleofanexpandedhybridcell.In 1980,PakistaniclericSheikMubarakAliGilaniformedtheAmericanwingoftheJAF inNewYork.GilaniprofessedsendingmembersofhisprimarilyAfrican-American congregationtoAfghanistanandPakistanforguerillawarfaretraining.24Between1980 and1990,membersofJAFhavebeenconvictedofassassinationsandfire-bombingsin NorthAmerica,althoughthegrouphasdesistedfromacampaignofviolencesincethe early1990s.2 FormallytrainedoperativestraveltotheUnitedStatestojoinhomegrownradicals. Source:UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter IndependentCells Independentsleepercellscanbevariantsofinfiltrationorhybridcellssincetheyareseparate fromtheparentorganization.IndependentcellscouldincludeformermembersofHamasor Hezbollahwhobreakfromtheoperationalcommandoftheorganizationtoplananattackonthe UnitedStates.TheymayalreadybeintheUnitedStates,impatientandeagertoattackwithout consentfromthesponsor.Likehomegrowncells,theindependentcellisarogueentitythat operatesoutsidetheparametersofthestrategicgoalsoftheorganization.Whatmaytriggeran independentcelltoattackcouldbedifferentfromwhatmaytriggeraninfiltrationcell.Likewise, thecapabilitiesoftheindependentcellmaybedifferentfromaninfiltrationcell,asthelatter wouldhaveorganizationalmomentumsupportingtheattack. •Hamashasahistoryofsuicidebombingcellsoperatingindependentlyofpolitical directivesbytheorganization.Forexample,aHamassuicidecellbrokeanIsraeli-Hamas ceasefireinAugust2003.ThepoliticalwingofHamasdeniedtheattack,whiletheal- Qassammilitarywingreleasedamartyrdomvideooftheattacker.26 •AnindependentcellmaywishtoprovokeanAmericanretaliationintheMiddleEastin ordertorallytheIslamicworldbehindthefightagainsttheUnitedStates. -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 10

  11. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates Roguegroupsbreakawayfromtheparentorganizationtoconductunsanctioned attacks. Source:UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter PrisonRadicalization AreviewofopensourceinformationsuggeststhatIslamicradicalismisgrowingintheUnited States.“Radicalization”referstotheprocessinwhichpeopleadoptextremeviews,including beliefsthatviolentmeasuresmustbetakenforpoliticalorreligiouspurposes.27RadicalIslamist leadersandgroupswhopromoteattackingtheWestarewinningtheheartsandmindsof “homegrown”AmericanstoconductviolentattacksonU.S.soil. Alongwithmosques,U.S.prisonsaretheprimaryenvironmentwhereIslamicradicalization isspreading.TheFBIdubbedprisonsa“fertilegroundforextremists”in2005becauseofthe relativeeaseinexploitingaprisoner’sconversiontoIslamandhisorhersocio-economicstatus Continuedonnextpage. -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 11

  12. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates andplacementinthecommunityuponrelease.28Twogroupsofconcerninvolvedinprison radicalizationincludeinmatesandthosewhoentercorrectionalfacilitieswiththeintentto radicalizeandrecruit.29 AshortageofMuslimreligiousleaderstoservethedemandsofU.S.inmateshaslikelyledto increasedradicalizationinprisons.30Federallawrequiresprisonstoprovideworshipservices toMusliminmates,whocompriseroughly6percentofthefederalprisonpopulation,or12,000 inmates.31TheFederalBureauofPrisonscurrentlyemploysonly10Muslimchaplains.This shortageallowsunqualified,radicalimamswhoinciteviolencetospreadtheirjihadistviewsto inmates–someofwhomhavebeenidentifiedasAlQaedachaplainsseekingrecruits.32Radical imamsorgroupsarealsoabletosupplyinmateswithpro-jihadIslamicliteraturethatpromote attackingWesterngovernments.Thejihadistmessageispassedontootherinmates,thosein otherprisonsiftheMuslimconvertistransferred,andbackintofreesocietyupontheprisoner’s release.33 •DesignatedasponsorofterrorismbytheTreasuryDepartmentin2004,theal-Haramain IslamicFoundationdistributedanestimated8,000to10,000NobleQu’ranbooksto inmatesinU.S.prisons.TheNobleQu’ranadvancesaradicalinterpretationoftheQuran andusesfootnotestohighlighttheimportanceofjihad.Anotherpro-jihadistbooksupplied bythesamegroupanddistributedtoapproximately1,000inmatesexhortedMuslimsto “teachyourchildrentheloveofjusticeandrevengefromtheunjust,liketheJewsandthe tyrants.”34 RadicalIslamistswhosuccessfullyinfiltratetheU.S.prisonsystemtargetmenwhoareconvicted ofviolentcrimesandwholikelyhavelittleornoloyaltytotheUnitedStates.TheseMuslim teachersandmentorspracticearadicalizedformofIslamdivergentfromtheorthodoxdoctrines ofWahhabismandSalafism,commonlycalled“prisonIslam.”Mostconverts,however,arenot cognizantofthedenominationtheyarepracticing.35 •EightypercentofthosewhoseekfaithinU.S.prisonsconverttoIslam.36 •ExamplesofIslamistterroristswhohavebeenrecruitedinWesternprisonsincludeRichard Reid,alsoknownasthe“ShoeBomber,”andJosePadilla,betterknownasthe“Dirty Bomber.” III.KeyDifferencesBetweenAlQaedaandHamas,Hezbollah HamasandHezbollahhavedifferedfromAlQaedabynotexplicitlyendorsingorsponsoring terroristattacksonAmericansoil.AlQaeda’sendgoalistoreinstatetheCaliphateacross thetraditionalIslamicworldinthemanneroftheearlyfollowersofMuhammad.AlQaeda’s strategyistoforcetheUnitedStatestowithdrawfromtheMiddleEast,whichwouldweaken IsraelandthenationalisticArabstatesthathaveparceledouttheformerCaliphate.The September11thattackswereintendedtoadvertiseAlQaeda’scapabilitiestotheMuslimworld, punishtheAmericaneconomy,andprovoketheUnitedStatesintoawarwithIslam,sothatthe Arab-IslamicworldwouldunitetorallyagainstallWesterninfluenceandaggression.Hamas -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 12

  13. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates andHezbollah,incontrast,pursuepoliticalobjectivesthatcounterthecreationofaglobal IslamicgovernmentforallMuslims.BothHamasandHezbollahhaveinvestedconsiderable resourcesinbecomingsuccessfulpoliticalentitiesinPalestineandLebanon,respectively. ProvokinganAmericanmilitaryresponsedoesnotadvancetheircurrentpoliticalambitions. Simplyput,HamasandHezbollahareatwarwithIsrael;AlQaedaisatwarwiththeUnited States. AlQaedaalsodiffersfromHamasandHezbollahaccordingtoorganizationaloutlook.AlQaeda embracesthe“franchise”approachtooperations.AlQaedadoesnotcometothejihadist;the jihadistcomestoAlQaeda.RadicalizedindividualsapproachAlQaedawithattackplans,andAl Qaedadecidestosponsorandsupportplansasitchooses.Forexample,OsamabinLadenand AymanZawahirididnotplantheSeptember11thattacks;KhalidSheikhMohammaddevised theplanandpresentedittoAlQaedaleadership.Thus,AlQaedahashistoricallysupported theschemesofhomegrowncellsandindependentjihadists.HamasandHezbollah,however, are“top-down”intheirapproachtorecruitmentandplanning,likelyduetothegeographic restrictionsandrecruitingpooloftheorganizations.HamashasacadreofleadersinSyriathat devisethestrategyoftheorganization,whileHezbollahisledbyareligiousjuristwinganda militarywing. •IfHamasorHezbollahweretoattacktheUnitedStates,theattackswouldlikelyresult fromafundamentalideologicalshifttowardAlQaeda-likejihadorfromtherelinquishing ofoperationalcontroltosmallerorganizationsaffiliatedwith–butindependentfrom–the greaterpartystructure. IV.DeterrentsandTriggersforSleeperCellAttacksinthe UnitedStates Inthepast,openconfrontationagainsttheUnitedStatesdidnotadvancethestrategicgoalsof eitherHamasorHezbollah.FearofanAmericanmilitaryresponseagainstLebanonorIran– theprimarysupporterofHamasandHezbollah–hasbeentheprimarydeterrentagainstattacks onAmericansoil.UnlikeAlQaeda,HezbollahandHamashaveregionalambitionsbasedon securingpoliticalcontrolintheMiddleEast.BothhavesoughttomarginalizeIsraelonthe worldstage.Despiterisinganti-Americansentimentacrosstheglobe,terrorattackswithin U.S.borderswouldlikelyforfeittheeffectofinfluenceoperationsbybothgroupsaimedat marginalizingIsrael.HamasandHezbollahwouldalienatethemselvesandmitigatesympathy intheMiddleEastconflict.Nonetheless,sleepercellattackswithintheUnitedStatesare possible.Thesubsequentsectionsanalyzethepossibletriggers,tactics,andtargetsofHamas, Hezbollah,homegrown,andindependentsleepercellswithintheUnitedStates. A.TriggersforHamastoAttacktheUnitedStates AmericanMilitaryInterventionintheMiddleEast AU.S.invasionofGazaorIranwouldbethemostlikelystimulustoaHamasresponsewithin theUnitedStates.AU.S.attackagainstIran,whichindirectlyfundsHamasthroughHezbollah, couldprovokeIrantoutilizeHamas’spresenceonU.S.soiltothreatenretaliation.Additionally, -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 13

  14. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates aU.S.attackonSyriathreatensthesecurityoftheHamasleadershipsecludedinSyria,which couldinstigateretaliatoryattacksbyHamassupporters. •OvertAmericanmaterielsupportforanIsraeliincursionofGazaorstrikeagainstIran couldalsoinspiresleepercellstoattack.Likewise,sharplyincreasedAmericansupport forFatahinPalestinethatjeopardizesthecontinuingexistenceofHamaswouldbe anothertrigger. ChangeinStrategicIdeologyfortheHamasLeadership Agame-changingtriggerforHamassleepercellscouldbeashiftfromemphasizingregional jihadintheMiddleEasttoglobaljihadinthemoldofAlQaeda.Hamashasfocusedon defeatingIsraelbyattackingIsrael.AlQaeda’sapproachhasbeentoweakenIsraelbyforcing theUnitedStatestowithdrawfromtheMiddleEast.IfHamasadoptedasimilaroutlook,sleeper cellattackscouldbecomemorelikely. OtherfactorsthatcouldchangeHamas’sstrategywouldbetheincreasednumberandrelative influenceoffatwasbyradicalizedimamspromotingthedestructionoftheUnitedStates.Over thepast15years,Hamashasusedschools,mosques,andthemediatoindoctrinatePalestinian childrenwithahatredofIsrael,Jews,andtheUnitedStates.Thefirstgenerationofthis indoctrinationisnowleavingschoolorenteringhighereducation,especiallyreligioustraining. Someofthoseexposedtothispropagandaeffortwillleadmosquesandthuspossessthereligious authoritytoinspirefollowerstoaction.Thisgenerationofimamsradicalizedaschildrencould passfatwasthatencouragestrikingagainsttheUnitedStates,whichcouldprovokesleepercell attacks. •AlthoughHamasisaunifiedorganizationinwhichthemilitarywingisostensibly inseparablefromthepoliticalandsocialservicewings,individualswithintheal-Qassam BrigadeshavepromotedattacksagainsttheUnitedStatesdespitedisavowalsbypolitical leaders.Iftheal-QassamBrigadewrestscontroloftheoverallHamasstrategy,Hamas couldbecomemorewillingtoattacktheAmericanhomeland. CrackdownonFundraisinginAmerica AdeterrenttoaHamasterrorattackintheUnitedStateshasbeenthelucrativefundsHamas hasgeneratedfromitsoperationswithinAmerica.IfHamasisunabletoexploittheAmerican economytofinanceitsactivitiesintheMiddleEast,adeterrenttosleepercellattackswould beremoved.InNovember2008,forexample,HamasofficialsaffiliatedwiththeHLFwere convictedoffunnelingover12milliondollarstoHamas.37Sincetheseindividualsfromthe HLFarerelatedtoHamasofficialsabroad,theirimprisonmentcouldinspirearogueelementto retaliateagainsttheUnitedStates. B.TriggersforHezbollahtoAttacktheUnitedStates TriggersforHezbollahAreSimilartoHamas ThemostlikelytriggerstoinciteHezbollahsleepercellattackswouldbeanAmericanattackon Lebanon,Iran,orSyria.ThreatofanAmericanattackagainstthesetargetscouldalsoleadtoa preemptivestrikebysleepercells.Ifanattack,orimminentthreatofanattack,isperceivedby -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 14

  15. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates Iran,itcoulduseHezbollahoperativesonU.S.soiltoconductattacksonAmericaatlittlecost toIran.Thus,usinginfiltrationcellstoattacktheUnitedStateswouldplaytoIran’sadvantage, attemptingtokeepU.S.securitypersonnelpreoccupiedwithattacksawayfromIraniansoil. ChangeinGlobalStrategy Hezbollah’spotentialtransformationtowardglobaljihadisdifferentfromHamas.Because HezbollahisaShiiteorganization,itcanbeinfluencedbythedictatesoftheimams,sheikhs,and juriststhatguidetheShiitefaithful.SheikhFadlallahhashadastronginfluenceonthereligious justificationofHezbollahbattletactics,suchassuicidebombings.Ifthereisachangetoward moreradicalreligiousleadership–forexample,Shiiteimamsthatbelieveaglobalconflagration wouldbringthedivineruleoftheMahdiovermankind–thatchangecouldinfluencethe strategicdirectionofHezbollah. •AnotherinfluencewouldbeIranianpressuretoattacktheUnitedStatesfromwithininthe caseofhostilitiesbetweentheUnitedStatesandIran. C.TriggersforHomegrownandIndependentCells Triggersforhomegrownandindependentcellswouldbelesspredictableandmorediverse. Independentcellsarenotboundbythestrategicvisionandmandatesoftheparentorganization. Thesecellscanbeledsolelybythepersonalmotivesofindividualleaders,suchastherewards ofmartyrdomandtheidealsofglobaljihad.WhereasHamasandHezbollahpropermaybe confinedbythedeterrentsandstrategicgoalslistedabove,independentcellsarenotconfinedby suchparameters.Therogueelement,whetherindependentcellsorhomegrownextremists,isa dangerousthreatthatmakespredictiveanalysisdifficult.38 Apotentialtriggerforradicalizedindividualstoperformsuicideattackscouldbeasteep downturnintheAmericaneconomy.Suicideterrormartyrdommayofferdebt-riddledand recentlyunemployedindividualsa“noble”escapefromsuffering.SimilartotheNational Socialistsindepression-eraGermany,jihadistsblame“Zionists”andJewsasscapegoatsfor globaldownturnsintheeconomythatleadtoindividualdebtandmisery.Asuicidebombing ofasynagogueorabankonAmericansoilcouldchanneleconomichopelessnessintohopefor eternallife. V.MostLikelySleeperCellTactics SuicideBombingsMostLikely Aseriesofsuicidebombingattacksbycellsdispersedacrossthehomelandwouldbethe mostlikelytacticusedbysleepercells,basedonareviewofpastHamasandHezbollah tactics.Suicidebombsareinexpensive“smartbombs”thatconcealtheinvolvementofthe sponsoringorganization.TheaveragePalestiniansuicidebombcostsapproximately$200,and suicidebomberscanusuallydetonatethebombclosetotheintendedtarget.39Thedeathofthe perpetratorprotectstheorganization,asauthoritiesareunabletointerrogatethebombertoreveal thesupportnetwork.Asuicideattackwouldachievetheobjectiveofdestroyingthedesired target,yetallowingtheorganizationtopubliclydisavowtheattackinordertoprotectitsimage -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 15

  16. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates ormitigatejustificationforcounterattacks.Forexample,U.S.intelligenceanalystsbelievewith strongcertaintythatHezbollahwasresponsibleforthebombingoftheAmericanembassyand MarinebarracksinBeirutin1983,yetHezbollahhasdeniedbothattacks.40 HamasSuicideAttacks HezbollahtrainedHamasintheuseofsuicidebombingsin1992,afterIsraelexpelledtheHamas leadershiptoLebanon.41Since1993,Hamashasperformed57suicideattacks,themajorityof whichoccurredafterthesecondIntifadabeganinOctober2000.Inaddition,Hamaspopularized thecultofmartyrdom,assuicidebombersbecamecelebritiesinPalestinianculture. U.S.invasionofGaza U.S.invasionofIran OpenUSmilitarysupportto IsraelirecaptureofGaza Shiftfromfocusonregional JihadtoglobalJihad Morefatwasjustifying attacksagainstAmerica U.S.invasionofSyria Diplomaticandeconomic sanctionsagainstIranlead toterroristpreemptive strikeagainsthomeland Suicidebombing Synchronizedand sophisticatedsuicide bombingcampaign Non-suicideIEDattack Creativeattackthat counterstacticaltrends withinorganization,suchas theMumbaisuicideassault Israelitarget SynogogueorotherJewish center Civiliantargets (supermarkets,restaurants, malls) Militarytarget Economictarget SymbolicAmericantarget Infrastructure Description: Thegraphpresentsthepossibletriggers,tactics,andtargetsfor HamassleepercellsintheUnitedStates.Thebarsratelikelihood relativetoeachcategory.Forexample,Hamassleepercellswould bemostlikelytoattacktheUnitedStatesiftheAmericanmilitary occupiedGaza.Itislesslikelythatal-Qassambrigadeswouldseize controloftheorganizationandtriggersleepercellattacks,butthe possibilityremains. ImprisonmentofHamas membersorrelativesof Hamasleadership(HLF) Al-QassamBrigadesdictate thedirectionofthe organization Crackdownonfund-raising inUnitedStatesremoves incentivetoavoiddomestic attack Source:UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 16

  17. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates HezbollahSuicideAttacks Hezbollahoriginatedthetacticofsuicidebombinginitscurrentformin1982,butithasnot participatedinsuchanattacksincethebombingoftheKhobarTowershousingcomplexin SaudiArabiain1996.ThiswasalsothelasttimeaShiiteorganizationsponsoredanattack. Hezbollah’sspiritualleader,SheikhFadlallah,limitedthereligioussanctionofsuicideattacks tothegoalofnationalliberationfromIsrael.Fadlallahexplicitlycondemnedattacksagainst buildingsandinfrastructure.HealsocondemnedtheSeptember11thattacksbyAlQaeda. HezbollahsuicideattackswithintheLebaneseconflicthavetargetedIsraeliandcoalitionmilitary forces. •Barringachangeinstrategyorapproach,aHezbollahsuicideattackonAmericansoil wouldrequireaprovocativetriggerandwouldlikelytargettheAmericanmilitary. U.S.invasionofLebanon U.S.invasionofIran Shiftinstrategytoward globalJihad ChangeofShiiteImam towardaradicalizedShiite Imam U.S.invasionofSyria IncreasedhostilitytoIran U.S.withdrawalfromthe MiddleEastsuggestsU.S. weakness Suicidebombing Synchronizedand sophisticatedsuicide bombingcampaign Creativeattackthat counterstacticaltrends withinorganization,suchas theMumbaisuicideassault Non-suicideIEDattack Weaponsofmass destructionsuppliedbyIran Militarytarget Israelitarget SynogogueorotherJewish center Infrastructure Economictarget Civiliantargets (supermarkets,restaurants, malls) SymbolicAmericantarget Crackdownonfund-raising inUnitedStatesremoves incentivetoavoiddomestic attack Description: Thegraphpresentsthepossibletriggers,tactics,andtargetsfor HezbollahsleepercellsintheUnitedStates.Thebarsrate likelihoodrelativetoeachcategory.Hezbollahsleepercellswould likelyattacktheUnitedStatesifthemilitaryoccupiedLebanonor Iran.Likewise,Hezbollah’shistoryoftacticalinnovationsuggests thatitwouldbemorelikelytodeviseaninnovativetacticinthe UnitedStatesrelativetoHamas. Source:UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 17

  18. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates SuicideAttacksbyHomegrownandIndependentCells Homegrownjihadistsmayviewsuicideattacksasawaytovindicatetheirstatusasamujahideen, or“onewhopartakesinjihad.”Psychologically,someMuslimsbelieveanewconvert mustovercompensateforhispastlifeasanon-devoutMuslimthroughextrememeasures. Additionally,someconvertsmayfeelthattheyaresociallyunacceptedbyfollowersofIslam fornotbeing“pure”enough.Thus,theyresorttosuicidebombingastheultimatedeclaration oftheirfaith.Manyoftheprominentsuicideattacksofthepastdecade–theSeptember11th attacks,theMadridbombs,andtheLondontunnelbombing–wereexecutedbyindividuals whowereraisedassecularizedMuslimsorChristians.Ifhomegrowncellsarecomposedof AmericanconvertsorMuslimsradicalizedinAmerica,thosecellscouldactsimilarlytotheones thathaveexecutedattacksinthepast. ExpansionofperceivedU.S. ‘imperialism’intotheArab- Islamicworld Global-Jihad Traditionalrecruitmentand radicalization(forexample, prisonrecruitment) Internetradicalization Economicmisery Suicidebombing Non-suicideIEDattack Creativeattackthat counterstacticaltrends withinorganization,suchas theMumbaisuicideassault Synchronizedand sophisticatedsuicide bombingcampaign Israelitarget SynogogueorotherJewish center Civiliantargets (supermarkets,restaurants, malls) Militarytarget Economictarget SymbolicAmericantarget Infrastructure Description: Thegraphpresentsthepossibletriggers,tactics,andtargetsfor HomegrownsleepercellsintheUnitedStates.Thebars ratelikelihoodrelativetoeachcategory.Becausehomegrown androgueindependentcellsequallyactwithoutthesanction orplanningoftheparentorganization,thelikelytriggers,tactics, andtargetsdifferfromthoseofHamasorHezbollah.For example,asmallhomegrownorroguecellisunlikelytohavethe capabilitiestoplanasophisticated,synchronizedseriesofsuicide bombingsacrossthecountrysimultaneously.However,thesecells wouldbeequallylikelytoperformattacksagainstmultipletypesof targets,duetotheunpredictablecharacterofthecells. Source:UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 18

  19. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates LikelihoodofOtherNon-SuicideAttacks Non-suicideIEDattackslacktheinherentadvantagesofsuicideattacks,includingdeniability, lowcost,andthesmallnumberofpeoplerequired.Inaddition,thecaptureandprosecution ofthoseresponsiblefordomesticnon-suicidecarbombings,suchastheWorldTradeCenter attackin1993andtheOklahomaCitybombingin1995,aidindeterringnon-suicideIED attacks.Non-suicideIEDsandcarbombs,however,couldstillbefactorsifdeniabilityisnota deterrent.Homegrownoperativesmayusevehicle-borneIEDbombingsoutsidegovernment buildingsoragainstciviliantargetsinordertoadvertisetheirrespectivecausesas“American Hamas”or“AmericanHezbollah.”Otherwise,aninfiltrationorhybridsleepercellIEDattack wouldrequiresophisticatedplanningtoprotecttheidentityofthoseinvolved. TheThreatofInnovativeAttacks Aninnovativeattackisonethatdeviatesfromanorganization’spastbehavior.Hezbollahhas establisheditselfasacreative,innovativeforceinmodernterrorismandirregularwarfare.If HezbollahwastoattacktheU.S.homeland,itislikelyitwouldactbasedonawell-conceived planthatmeetsitsstrategicgoals.ItisunlikelythatHezbollahwouldperformanattackin Americawithoutastrongprobabilityofsuccess;asurpriseattackfitsthatagenda. •Likewise,Hezbollahposesthethreatofweaponsofmassdestruction(WMD)becauseof itsIranianconnection.HamasisalsolinkedtoIran,butthatrelationshipisnotasdeeply rootedasHezbollah-Iranties.IranwouldlikelytrustHezbollahtoperformaWMDattack overHamas. VI.MostLikelySleeperCellTargets InfiltrationandHybridCellsSeekStrategicInfluence InfiltrationandhybridcellsformedbyHamasorHezbollahwouldbeaninvestmentbythe sponsoringorganization.ItislikelythatHamasandHezbollahwouldexpectasignificant“return oninvestment”fromtheattack,whetherthetargetisamilitarybase,afinancialinstitution,or asymboliclandmark.Ontheotherhand,homegrowncellsthatactinthenameofHamasor Hezbollahcouldbemorerecklessandattacksmall-scaletargetswithoutapparentjustification. Thehomegrowncellsorrogueelementsmay“thinkglobally”butattackinsimplisticways,like usingsuicidevestsatrestaurants.ItisunlikelythatHamasorHezbollahwouldplansuchan attackundercurrentcircumstances. CommonHamas,HezbollahThreattoJewishandIsraeliTargets SincebothHamasandHezbollahareengagedinabitterstruggleagainstIsrael,andpastbehavior suggeststheywouldseekIsraeliandJewishtargetsintheUnitedStates.AttackingJewishand IsraelitargetswouldattempttolinkAmericansupportforIsraelwithpunishmentandretaliation. Forexample,sleeperagentAkalwasplanningtoassassinateanIsraeliofficialinNewYorkin 2003whenhewasarrestedbyIsraelisecuritypersonnel.42 •Thetargetwouldbeinfluencedbythetrigger.Ifeitherorganizationundergoesastrategic changethatleadstoglobaljihad,Americaninfrastructureandpopulationcenterswould alsobecomeviabletargets. -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 19

  20. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates ThreattoCivilianandMilitaryTargets HamashasanextensivehistoryofsuicideattacksandgunfireassaultsonIsraelicivilians. IthasrationalizedtheslaughterofIsraeliciviliansbyimplyingthatIsrael’sdemocracy, mandatorymilitarycommitment,andtaxpoliciesimplicateallIsraelicitizensinviolence againstPalestinians.HamascantransfertherationalesforattackingIsraelicivilianstoattacking Americancivilians,usingitsskillatplanningsuicideattacksinIsraelforattacksonAmerican civiliantargets. Hezbollah,incontrast,hasprimarilylimiteditsoperationstomilitarytargets.Barring unforeseentriggersthatwouldcauseHezbollahtodeviatefrompastpractices,itwouldlikely targetmilitarybaseswithintheUnitedStates.Althoughattacksonciviliantargetsarepossible, theyarelesslikelyrelativetoothertargets. Independentcellsandhomegrowncellswouldlikelybelessstrategicintheirtargetselection, probablychoosingeasytargetsrelativetoindividualgroupabilities.AllegiancetoHamasor Hezbollahmaybesuperficial,andthesecellscouldactas“lonewolves”independentofthe parentorganizations.Thismakestheirbehaviorevenmoreunpredictable.Homegrowncells composedofradicalizedAmericanswouldbemorelikelytoperformasuicideattackagainst civiliansinotherwiseordinarylocations,suchassupermarketsorrestaurants.Forexample,the Englishmanmentionedaboveplannedtodetonateasuicidebombinarestaurant. •Civilianswouldbethemostlikelytargetofhomegrownextremistsbecauseoftheir vulnerabilityandthepossiblepsychologicalmotivationfortheattacks;manyextremists harborhatredforothermembersoftheirsocieties.StrikingoutagainstfellowAmerican citizenscouldmeetapsychologicalimpulsethatradicalizationmerelyreinforced. VII.ImplicationsforHomelandSecurity Undercurrentconditions,thechancesofasanctionedattackbyHamasandHezbollahsleeper cellsintheUnitedStatesareslim.43Severalfactorscombinetoreducethestrategicbenefitof suchattacksanddeterHamasandHezbollahleadersfromexpendingscarceresourcestoprepare forsuchanevent.Thosefactorsinclude: •ThreatofAmericanmilitaryretaliation •LossofsupportamongmoderateArabgovernmentsandglobalsympathizers •LittleperceivedgainforprimarywaragainstIsrael •Threatofcontinuedorincreasedcrackdownondomesticactivities,especiallyfundraising Nonetheless,anumberofpossiblecircumstancescouldshiftthethreatposture.Eachofthese factorshasimplicationsforhomelandsecurity,contingentontheabilityoftheU.S.Government toexertinfluenceorcontroloverthesituation.Forexample: •Aradicalizedindependentorhybridcellthatseparatesfromthecontroloftheparent organization.BecausebothcellsinvolveforeigntrainedoperativesenteringtheUnited States,immigrationcontrolsplayanimportantroleinmonitoringandtrackingpotential operativeswithinAmericanborders. -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 20

  21. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates •Ananonymous,well-executedattackunattributedtoHamasorHezbollahthat encouragescopycatattacks.HamasandHezbollahcanmitigatethethreatofanAmerican militaryresponsebyblamingoraccusingathirdpartyforsponsoringtheattack.Also,a high-profileeventwithplentifulmediaattentioncouldinspireotherstofollowsuit. •AstrategicshifttowardglobaljihadbyextremistelementswithinHezbollahorHamas. Politicalcontrolofterrororinsurgentgroups,similartopoliticalmovements,canshift dramaticallygivenexternalfactors.SharplyincreasedaggressionagainstMuslims elsewhereorotherglobaleventcouldbolsterthosewhofavorglobaljihadoverthemore narrowagendaofopposingIsrael. •AU.S.attackonIranperceivedasanexistentialstruggleagainstIslam.Ifopen hostilitieseruptbetweenIranandtheUnitedStatesoverIran’snuclearprogram,Irancould seektoactivateHezbollahsleepercellsintheUnitedStatesina“finalwar”forthesurvival ofShiaIslam. MostLikelyThreatIsFromIndependent,HomegrownGroups Rogueindependentcellsandhomegrownextremistsnominallyactingonbehalfoftheparent organizationpresentthemostviablecurrentthreattothehomeland.Thelistofdeterrentsfor theparentorganizationdoesnotapplytoroguecells.Likewise,threatindicators,suchasthe strategicpostureofHamasorHezbollah,donotapplytoroguegroups.Themotivesandtriggers forindependentandhomegrowncellsmaycorrelatewithtriggersforinfiltrationcells,butthe triggersmayalsobevariedandpersonal.Attacksfromhomegrowncellsprobablywouldbe small-scaleandlocal,giventhelikelylackofaccesstoexternalexpertiseandresources.In contrast,independentcellshavegreaterpotentialtoconductmoresophisticated,synchronized operations. •Thebehaviorofhomegrowncellsisthehardesttopredictgiventheirlegalstatustolivein America,diverseagendas,dependenceonthepersonalitiesofteamleaders,andpotential forindividualstoactalone. •Thethreatfromhomegrowncellscanprobablyneverbeeliminatedcompletely,butthe destructivepowerofsuchgroupstendstobelessthanforthosewithoutsideexpertise, funding,andresources.ThispresentshardchoicesonresourceallocationforU.S.security personnelwhenevensmall,amateurcellscandestroyentirebuildingcomplexes. •Mostindependentcellswouldrequiretheinfiltrationoftrainedoperatives,providingU.S. securitypersonnelopportunitiestoidentifyandtrackterroristsastheycrossstateborders. Nonetheless,suchintelligenceworkrequiresclosecoordinationamongmultiplefederal agenciestobemosteffective. LessLikelybutMostPotentThreatfromHybridCells HybridcellsthatcombinelocalknowledgeofU.S.targetswithtacticalexpertiseandresources fromHamasorHezbollahyieldthe“lowprobability,highimpact”scenario.Hybridcellshave thepotentialtocombinehigh-levelexpertiseandinternationalcombatexperiencewithlocal knowledgeanddiverseculturalbackgroundstoimplementinnovativeterroristattacks.The -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 21

  22. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates MumbaiattacksinNovember2008byLashkar-e-Taibawerenotinnovativeintactics,but deviatedfromtherecenttrendofjihadistattacks.Ahybridcellthatfusesorganizationaltraining withfreshconvertstojihadmaystimulateanattackthatisdifficulttopredict. •AnalystsshouldresistthetemptationtolookforareplicationofMumbai-typetacticsin theUnitedStateswhenanexperiencedhybridcellprobablywouldattackinwaysuniqueto localcircumstances. •TheDepartmentofHomelandSecurity(DHS)couldplayacoordinatingroleinmonitoring thistypeofthreat.Therearemultiplefacetstothethreatofhybridcells,suchasillegal immigration,domesticlawenforcement,andinfrastructurethreatawareness.DHScould leverageitsstrengthsintheseareastocoordinateintelligenceamongthemanyother intelligenceandlawenforcementagencies. •Respondingtopossiblehybridcellattacksinthefutureprobablywouldrequirethe involvementoftheDepartmentofDefense’sNorthernCommand.Anetworkofhybrid cellsspreadacrossthecountryhasthepotentialtoperformsynchronizedandsophisticated attacksnoteasilysuppressedbylocallawenforcementpersonnel. -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 22

  23. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates EndNotes UnitedStatesofAmericavs.MousaMohammedAbuMarzook,MuhammadHamidKhalilSalah,Abdelhaleem HasanAbdelraziqAshqar.UnitedStatesDistrictCourtNorthernDistrictofIllinoisEasternDivision.August 2003. Levitt,Matthew.Hamas:Politics,Charity,andTerrorismintheServiceofJihad.NewHaven:YaleUniversity Press,2006.page214. Trahan,Jason,andTanyaEisener.“HolyLandFoundationDefendantsGuiltyonAllCounts.”DallasMorning News.24November2008.http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/112508dnmet holylandverdicts.1e5022504.html.(accessedMarch92009). Levitt,Mathew.“CouldHamasTargettheWest?”StudiesinConflictandTerrorism,Vol.30,no.11.1 November2007.page925. Levitt,“CouldHamasTargettheWest?”page927. Emerson,Steven.“AmericanJihad:TheTerroristsLivingAmongUs.”TheFreePress,NewYork:2002.Pg. 80-82. Levitt,“CouldHamasTargettheWest?”page929. Sadick,Jess.“TheGlobalizationofHamasTerrorism.”TheFoundationfortheDefenseofDemocracies.30 January2004. Roig-Franzia,Manuel.“N.C.ManConvictedofAidingHezbollah.”WashingtonPost.22June2002.page A11. Bensman,Todd.“HaveTerroristsCrossed?”InvestigativeProject.org.25March2008.http://www. investigativeproject.org/article/625.(accessed7January2009). “Hezbollah(a.k.a.Hizbollah,Hizbu’llah).”CouncilonForeignRelations.13August2008.http://www.cfr.org/ publication/9155/.(accessed23February2009). Sites,Kevin.“HezbollahDeniesTerroristTies,IncreasesRoleinGovernment.”ScrippsHowardNews Services.14January2006. Meek,JamesGordon.“WakeupCallforSleepingFiends?RisingTensionsWithIranMayStirCells, PoliticiansTold.”DailyNews.23July2006. Krieger,HilaryLeila.“FBI:HizbullahAvoidingAttacksonUS.”JerusalemPost–OnlineEdition.12April 2007.(accessed18February2009). “Lebanon:TheIsrael-Hamas-HezbollahConflict;CRSReportforCongress:ReceivedThroughtheCRSWeb.” CongressionalResearchService.14August2006.LexisNexis.Accessed18February2009. Carlton,Jeff.“SecurityChiefSaysTerroristsHaveBeenArrestedonTexasBorder.”AssociatedPressState andLocalWire.13September2007.LexisNexis.Accessed18February2009. Kimery,AnthonyL.“USIntelligenceWorriedAboutTerror-NarcoNexus.”HomelandSecurityToday.9 October2008.http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/5551/149/.Accessed7January2009. “Lebanon:Hezbollah’sCommunicationNetwork.”Stratfor.9May2008.http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/ lebanon_hezbollahs_communication_network.(accessed10March2009). Springer,DevinR.,JamesL.Regens,andDavidN.Edger.IslamicRadicalismandGlobalJihad.Washington, D.C.:GeorgetownUniversityPress,2009.page101. SeeUWACreport“Web2.0andEnemyRecruitment”byStevenNuttandJoshLyons.UrbanWarfareAnalysis Center.8August2008. Sageman,Marc.LeaderlessJihad:TerrorNetworksintheTwenty-FirstCentury.Philadelphia:Universityof PennsylvaniaPress,2008.page110. Gardham,Duncan.“Al-QaedaTerroristsWhoBrainwashedExeterSuicideBomberStillontheRun.” Telegraph.co.uk.16October2008.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/3204139/ Al-Qaeda-terrorists-who-brainwashed-Exeter-suicide-bomber-still-on-the-run.html.(accessed20October2008). Springer,Regens,andEdger,page20. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 23

  24. ThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStatesThreatAnalysis:HamasandHezbollahSleeperCellsintheUnitedStates Kaplan,DavidE.“MadeintheU.S.A.HundredsofAmericansHaveFollowedthePathtoJihad.Here’sHow andWhy.”U.S.NewsandWorldReport.2June2002 Crowley,Zachary.“Jammatal-FuqraDossier.”CenterforPolicingTerrorism.16March2005. Levitt,Hamas:Politics,Charity,andTerrorismintheServiceofJihad.page221. VanDuyn,Donald.“PrisonRadicalization:TheEnvironment,theThreat,andtheResponse.”Statementto SenateHomelandSecurityandGovernmentalAffairs,19September2006. Zoll,Rachel.“U.S.PrisonsBecomingIslamBattleground–%ofMuslimsinUSPrisonsHigherthanGeneral Population”.AssociatedPressOnline.4June2005.LexisNexis.(accessed18February2009). VanDuyn,Donald. Kaplan,Eben.“TheAmericanMuslimDilemma.”CouncilonForeignRelations.22September2006.http:// www.cfr.iorg/publication/11508/american_muslim_dilemma.html.(accessed21January2009). TheFederalBureauofPrisonswebsitegeneratesapopulationreporteveryThursdayat12:00p.m.On23 January2009,thisnumberreached201,518totalfederalinmates. “FBI:AlQaidaStillRecruitinginU.S.Prisons.”JihadWatch,8January2004.http://www.jihadwatch.org/ archives/000591.php.(accessed21January2009). Cilluffo,FrankJ.“PrisonRadicalization:AreTerroristCellsForminginU.S.CellBlocks?”BeforetheSenate CommitteeonHomelandSecurityandGovernmentalAffairs,19September2006. Gartenstein-Ross,Daveed.“RadicalIndoctrinationintheU.S.Prisons.”TheCounterterrorismBlog,25 August2005.http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/2005/08/radical_indoctr.html. (accessed21January2008). Rupp,Eric;andChristianW.Erickson.“Prisons,RadicalIslam’sNewRecruitingGround?:Patternsof RecruitmentinUS,andComparisonWiththeUK,France,andSpain.” RuppandErickson. Trahan,Jason.“HolyLandFoundationDefendantsGuiltyonAllCounts.”DallasMorningNews.25 November2008.http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/112508dnmetholylandv erdicts.1e5022504.html.(accessed18February2009). SeeFBIDirectorRobertMueller’sstatements,quotedinLevitt,Mathew.“CouldHamasTargettheWest?” StudiesinConflictandTerrorism,Vol.30,no.11.1November2007.page938. Hoffman,Bruce.“TheLogicofSuicideTerrorism.”TheAtlantic.June2003.http://www.theatlantic.com/ doc/200306/hoffman.(accessed19February2009). “Hezbollah(a.k.a.Hizbollah,Hizbu’llah).”CouncilonForeignRelations.13August2008.http://www.cfr. org/publication/9155/.(accessed23February2009). Hafez,MohammedM.ManufacturingHumanBombs.UnitedStatesInstituteofPeace.WashingtonD.C., 2006.page18. “Hamas’MilitaryOperationsinNorthAmerica.”TheNEFAFoundation.October2007. Levitt,Matthew.Interviewbyauthor.Phone.UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter,2February2009;Kramer, Martin.E-mailmessagetoauthor,5February2009. 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 -UrbanWarfareAnalysisCenter•1821AirportRd.•Shawnee,OK74804•(405)273-3035 24

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