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JPM Model Results

This report outlines the simulation methodology used to analyze historic storm impacts, focusing on Category 2 hurricanes and above. A total of 57,000 storms from a set of 100,000 years were simulated with significant findings, such as 17,664 storms producing a surge greater than 1 meter. The study employs a simplified Holland wind field model to assess landfall pressures and surge effects across various coastal segments. Key results include correlations between landfall parameters, model error assessments, and recommendations for future analyses based on current storm sets.

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JPM Model Results

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  1. JPM Model Results Peter J Vickery and Dhiraj Wadhera Applied Research Associates 8537 Six Forks Rd, Suite 600 Raleigh, NC, 27615 March 9 2011

  2. Historic Storms

  3. Cat 2 Hurricanes

  4. Cat 3 and Higher Hurricanes

  5. Simulation Methodology

  6. Coastal Segments

  7. Landfall Pressures

  8. Mile Posts

  9. Comparison of Pressures

  10. Comparison of Translation Speed

  11. Comparisons of Heading

  12. 100,000 Year Simulation Results 57,000 storms in the storm set. 17,664 storms produce a surge greater than 1m somewhere in the region. 100,000 year simulation performed using ARA And a simple Holland wind field model with a surface wind factor of 0.884

  13. 100,000 Year Simulation Results 57,000 storms in the storm set. 17,664 storms produce a surge greater than 1m somewhere in the region. 100,000 year simulation performed using ARA and a simple Holland wind field model with a surface wind factor of 0.884

  14. Effect of Reduced Storm Set

  15. Effect of Reduced Storm Set

  16. “Landfall” regions

  17. Processing of reduced storm set • Three classes of storms • 1) NC Landfall (8190/17664) • 2) By-pass (5760/17664) • 3) VA/DE/NJ Landfalls (3171/17664)

  18. NC and By-pass Tracks

  19. VA Tracks

  20. Surge vs. Landfall Parameters

  21. Surge vs. Landfall Parameters

  22. Landfall Location

  23. NC Heading Pressure Correlation

  24. Surge vs. By-Pass Parameters

  25. JPM/Stochastic Landfall Parameters

  26. JPM/Stochastic Landfall Parameters

  27. Region III Grid Points 675 coastal locations used to compare JPM SWEL results with the full stochastic set SWEL results. Total of 468 tracks used in model.

  28. % Errors in 100 Year MRI SWL • Error = (JPM-Stochastic)/Stochastic • Mean Error = -0.8%

  29. Errors in 100 Year MRI SWL (ft) • Error = JPM-Stochastic • Mean Error = 0.05 ft

  30. % Errors in 500 Year MRI SWL • Error = (JPM-Stochastic)/Stochastic • Mean Error = 5.6%

  31. Errors in 500 Year MRI SWL (ft) • Error = (JPM-Stochastic)/Stochastic • Mean Error = 0.7 ft

  32. % Errors in 10 Year MRI SWL • Error = (JPM-Stochastic)/Stochastic • Mean Error = -34%

  33. Errors in 10 Year MRI SWL (ft) • Error = JPM-Stochastic • Mean Error = -0.6 ft

  34. JPM vs. Stochastic

  35. JPM vs. Stochastic

  36. JPM vs. Stochastic

  37. JPM vs. Stochastic

  38. Error in 100 Year MRI SWEL’s

  39. Error in 500 Year MRI SWEL’s

  40. Summary • Design level storm surge dominated by hurricanes with central pressure differences less than ~ 75 mbar (central pressure greater than 938 mbar). • Typical RMW ~ 50 km or greater • Highest surges produced by hurricanes making landfall along the VA/DE/NJ coast • Contribution of by-passing hurricanes to design level events is relatively small • 99% of JPM results are within +/- 1 ft of the stochastic model • 89% of JPM results are within +/- 6 inches of the stochastic model

  41. Summary • JPM methodology underestimates 10 year MRI SWEL and overestimates the 500 MRI SWEL • Recommend using current storm set • Apply mean offset correction to 10 year and 500 year results

  42. Summary of results for thesingle Holland b storm set

  43. % Errors in 100 Year MRI SWL • Error = (JPM-Stochastic)/Stochastic • Mean Error = -1.4%

  44. Errors in 100 Year MRI SWL (ft) • Error = JPM-Stochastic • Mean Error = -0.04 ft

  45. % Errors in 500 Year MRI SWL • Error = (JPM-Stochastic)/Stochastic • Mean Error = 1.7%

  46. Errors in 500 Year MRI SWL (ft) • Error = (JPM-Stochastic)/Stochastic • Mean Error = 0.3 ft

  47. % Errors in 10 Year MRI SWL • Error = (JPM-Stochastic)/Stochastic • Mean Error = -45%

  48. Errors in 10 Year MRI SWL (ft) • Error = JPM-Stochastic • Mean Error = -0.8 ft

  49. JPM vs. Stochastic

  50. JPM vs. Stochastic

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