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Climate Review: February 2004 Ed O’Lenic NOAA-NWS-CPC

Climate Review: February 2004 Ed O’Lenic NOAA-NWS-CPC. February 2004 Summary. Feb, DJF Official forecast skills mixed Pacific slightly cooler overall than Jan, more La Nina-like SSTa max W. Pac., SSTa sub-warm-event. Convection stronger W. of dateline than Jan MJO weaker than in Dec, Jan

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Climate Review: February 2004 Ed O’Lenic NOAA-NWS-CPC

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  1. Climate Review: February 2004Ed O’Lenic NOAA-NWS-CPC

  2. February 2004 Summary • Feb, DJF Official forecast skills mixed • Pacific slightly cooler overall than Jan, more La Nina-like • SSTa max W. Pac., SSTa sub-warm-event. • Convection stronger W. of dateline than Jan • MJO weaker than in Dec, Jan • Walker Circulation like Dec • PNA moderately +/AO,NAO strongly - • STJ weak, Pacific jet N. of normal • Long-lived stratospheric warming in NH high latitudes • Wet Tx, Fl, Ca • Cold Grt. Basin, South • Siberia abnormally cold • NE SOAM, NW Australia, W. EU wet

  3. Sea Surface Temperature and Anomalies

  4. Sea Level Pressure Anomalies and Wind Indices

  5. February 2004 TOfficial, Update, Observations OFF UPD OBS Off. Up. Change All Stations +4.3 -2.2 -6.5 Non-EC: +17.2 -6.1 -23.3 % Cov: 25.0 35.3 +10.3

  6. February 2004 POfficial, Update, Observations UPD OFF OBS Off. Up. Change All Stns: -3.0 -3.4 -0.4 Non-EC-35.0 -8.0 +27.0 % Cov: 8.6 43.1 +34.5

  7. Forecast T DJF All Non-EC % Cov +2.6 +5.6 46.6

  8. Forecast P DJF All Non-EC % Cov -2.2 -7.8 27.6

  9. DJF 33-year AC skill of MRF9, ECHAM, COLA, NSIPP: Should these be stratified by ENSO vs. Neutral? TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION

  10. DJF T Forecast Tools, Official and Verifying Observations HOT COLD

  11. DJF P Forecast Tools, Official and Verifying Observations DRY WET

  12. OLR FEB

  13. SST, SSTa

  14. Thermocline tilt becomes more “La Nina-like” in February February 2004 January 2004

  15. Mean/Anom. RH, Uchi + w Tropical Zonal Cross-Section

  16. MJO activity, enhanced during December reached peak amplitude during January, weakened and continued in February.

  17. As spring (fall) approached in the Northern (Southern) hemispheres during February, variability continued to be large in the global Tropics. MJO activity persisted, but was weak. Convection returned to a more West-of-the-dateline-enhanced configuration. NH 200 hPa heights were abnormally high all month, forcing lower heights to middle latitudes.

  18. 850 mb wind FEB

  19. 200 mb wind FEB

  20. 500 mb Z FEB

  21. Stratospheric warming

  22. SH Z500 FEB

  23. Temperature T globe

  24. Precipitation P globe

  25. The End

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