1. Challenges in Capacity Addition & New Technologies Emerging trends in RE electricity and beyond Shirish Garud, Senior Fellow, TERI In association with Indian Energy Storage Alliance (IESA), Pune Presented at 18th Indian Renewable Energy Forum, New Delhi Nov 16, 2018

2. Challenges in Capacity Addition & New Technologies • Drivers Source: If mandatory, small source in 6 pt size font can be given here for photos Slide No. ( 2 of 7) Energy

3. Climate Change is happening • “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”- IPCC AR4 (Forth Assessment Report) report • Recent data confirms that consumption of fossil fuels accounts for majority of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. • Emissions continue to grow and CO2 concentrations have now increased to over 390ppm or 39% above preindustrial levels. (O. Edenhofer, 2011) • 2018 • To prevent 2.7 degrees of warming, greenhouse pollution must be reduced by 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, and 100 percent by 2050. By 2050, use of coal as an electricity source would have to drop from nearly 40 percent today to between 1 and 7 percent. Renewable energy such as wind and solar, which make up about 20 percent of the electricity mix today, would have to increase to as much as 67 percent.- IPCC latest report released Yesterday! • The 2018 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science was awarded on Monday to a pair of American economists, William D. Nordhaus and Paul M. Romer, for their work highlighting the importance of government policy in fostering sustainable economic growth. • (Source:- https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html?module=inline)

4. IPCC projection Source:- IPCC, 2018

5. A Global Energy Transition Is Emerging • The graph shows net capacity additions for four major economies for which data are already available for 2017. • Globally, renewables capacity addition outpaced fossil in 2017. • A significant drop in the coal project realization and pipeline was seen. • Price parity of renewables with conventional sources has been achieved in multiple markets. Source: TERI, based on data from Enerdata, 2018

6. India’s NDCs: Main Features

7. RE Consumption Growth projection Source- IEA Slide No. ( 7 of 7) Energy

8. Global cost reduction trends Source- IEA • Renewables are now competing with each other

9. India’s Solar Transition/ Electricity Transition Source: TERI Analysis Creating Innovative Solutions for a Sustainable Future 9

10. Growth of Solar Power in India Solar Tariff Trends over past 5 Years • India’s cumulative installed capacity is nearly 13.5 GW • Capacity addition in the FY17 was over 5GW • Targeted capacity addition for FY 18 is 10GW 10

11. Alternate markets are opening up Technologies • Battery storage • Concentrated solar • Advanced controllers for micro-grids • Solar PV cooking • Alternate bio-fuels • Solar powered tools, machinery and equipment for agriculture • Solar powered boats, solar roads • Rural micro-grids • Industrial heating and cooling applications • E Vehicles • Electricity based cooking • Advanced biofuels • Concentrated Solar heating and cooling • Biomass utilisation • Circular economy:-Recycling and reuse Slide No. ( 11 of 7) Energy

12. Microgrid Initiative for Campus & Rural Opportunities (MICRO) – Phase 1 Super Efficient appliances www.micro.indiaesa.info 12

13. Energy Storage: Diverse Asset Class Electro-Chemical Mechanical Bulk Mechanical (Flow battery / Lithium Ion ) (Flywheel) (Compressed Air) (Compressed Air) Transportation Thermal Bulk Gravitational (Ice / Molten Salt) (Pumped Hydro) (Electric Vehicles)

14. Green industry initiatives • Green industry is based on proven methods, strategies and tools to decouple economic growth from increased use of natural resources and aggravated environmental impacts. Green Growth and sustainable future Source: UNIDO

15. What next? • Larger R & D program • Mission innovation + • Increased support to industries/ research groups • Policy push for demonstration and pilot projects in new technologies • Support to industries and investors to create markets • Testing and adaptation of new technologies • Support to make in India • Strategic investments in ecosystem development • Dynamic market development • Goals for deployment of new applications/ technologies • Sector specific initiatives

16. Thank You

17. Greening the Grid: Modelling vs Reality

18. Expected India Net Load Curve 2022 (with 100 GW of solar generation) POSOCO’s projections for India net load curve with 20 GW solar PV IESA projections for India net load curve with 100 GW solar PV

19. Solar + Storage Case Study on Port Blair, Andaman & Nicobar Island • Solar generation is inherently intermittent and supply may create very large instantaneous ramps. • The problem will be accentuated in islands like Andaman and Nicobar, where currently diesel generators are used for providing base load as well as balancing service • MNRE under Greening the Islands program is exploring deployment of 50+ MWh of energy storage with solar PV • This analysis has resulted in 5+ solar + storage microgrids in Andaman Nicobar with 20+ MWh of storage • Additional 3-4 large projects are expected to get approval though NESM Island is dependent on diesel generators as primary source of electricity and balancing power, where solar variability is a major issue and opportunity for energy storage integration.

20. Case StudyTypical Foundry Company– Max Load 2 MW Solutions Grid + Storage, Grid + Solar + Storage • Foundry has rapid fluctuating loads with swings between 2 MW max & min up to 1 MW • Energy Storage can be used as diesel offset • Coupled with Solar, as a Hybrid solution to manage peak requirements • Energy Storage can also be used for power quality improvements and managing the rapid swings (swells & dips), if coupled with a smart controller

21. ESS Cost Trends ($/kWh)

22. Conclusion • Energy storage technologies are required both for conventional as well as renewable resource optimization as well as for improving electric grid resiliency • Solar + storage is already cost competitive with diesel and if there is a clear policy from MNRE, large scale deployments can start TODAY. • Solar + Storage is expected to drive growth as grid parity will be reached with in next 12-18 months for such hybrid projects. • Policy makers need to stop making just large announcements and focus on systematic scale up of deployments to build confidence and skill development. • There is excellent opportunity for collaborations for R&D, manufacturing and exports