1 / 125

MPR July 110704

MPR July 110704. Figure 1.01. Growth in the world and in Sweden Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data. Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank. Figure 1.02. Unemployment with uncertainty bands Per cent of the labour force.

robert-ellis
Télécharger la présentation

MPR July 110704

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. MPR July110704

  2. Figure 1.01. Growth in the world and in SwedenAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  3. Figure 1.02. Unemployment with uncertainty bandsPer cent of the labour force Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  4. Figure 1.03. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  5. Figure 1.04. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  6. Figure 1.05. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate. The uncertainty bands do not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate. Source: The Riksbank

  7. Figure 1.06. Purchasing managers' indexIndex, seasonally-adjusted data Note. TCW refers to a combination of Sweden’s most important trading partners Source: MarkitEconomics

  8. Figure 1.07. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Outcomes represent monthly averages of spot prices. Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

  9. Figure 1.08. Consumer pricesAnnual percentage change Note: Swedish data refers to CPIF inflation. TCW-weighted international data refers to CPI or HICP. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners. Sources: National sources and the Riksbank

  10. Figure 1.9 . GDP in the USAQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Riksbank

  11. Figure 1.10. Comparison of recovery in Sweden, the euro area and USAGDP level, index 2007 quarter 4 = 100 Note. The quarter prior to the recession breaking out in the USA = 100. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, SCB and the Riksbank

  12. Figure 1.11. GDP in different regions and countriesQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  13. Figure 1.12. HICPAnnual percentage change Sources: National sources and the Riksbank

  14. Figure 1.13. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. There is also uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the figures in the National Accounts are revised several years after the preliminary publication. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  15. Figure 1.14. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  16. Figure 1.15. Swedish exports and the world market for Swedish exports Annual percentage change Note. The points refer to the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year. The export market index is defined in the glossary. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  17. Figure 1.16. Investments abroadIndex, 2007 =100 Sources: National sources

  18. Figure 1.17. Investment ratioPer cent of GDP, current prices Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Four-quartermovingaverage.

  19. Figure 1.18. Labour force and number of employedThousands, seasonally-adjusted data Note. Pre-1987 data have been spliced by the Riksbank. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  20. Figure 1.19. Employment and labour force participation ratesEmployment and labour force as a percentage of the population, aged 16-64, seasonally-adjusted data Note. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  21. Figure 1.20. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force Note. Estimate based on historical correlation of unemployment and GDP (Okun’s law). Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  22. Figure 1.21. Proportion of companies reporting a shortage of labourPer cent, seasonally adjusted data Source: National Insitute of Economic Research

  23. Figure 1.22. Capacity utilisation in industryPer cent, seasonally adjusted data Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

  24. Figure 1.23. GDP-gap and RU-indicatorPer cent and standard deviation Note. GDP gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a Hodrick-Prescott filter. GDP gap (PF) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a production function. The RU indicator is normalised so that the mean value is 0 and the standard deviation is 1. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  25. Figure 1.24. Hours gapPer cent Note. The hours gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in the number of hours worked calculated with a Hodrick-Prescott filter. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank’s assumed trend for the numbers of hours worked. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  26. Figure 1.25. Wages and wage expectationsAnnual percentage change Note. Refers to wages according to short-term salaries statistics. Sources: National Mediation Office, TNS SifoProspera and the Riksbank

  27. Figure 1.26. Profit share in the business sectorAnnual percentage change and gross surplus as share of value added in the business sector Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Labour cost deflated by business sector’s value-added price

  28. Figure 1.27. Cost pressures in the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, fixed prices and per cent of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  29. Figure 1.28. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18 November 1992 = 100 Note. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages. Source: The Riksbank

  30. Figure 1.29. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed interest rate. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  31. Figure 1.30. Interest rate cost index in the CPI Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  32. Figure 1.31. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  33. Figure 2.01. Hourly labour costAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  34. Figure 2.02. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  35. Figure 2.03. CPIAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  36. Figure 2.04. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  37. Figure 2.05. Labour productivityAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  38. Figure 2.06. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  39. Figure 2.07. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  40. Figure 2.08. GDP abroadTCW-weighted, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners. Sources: National sources and the Riksbank

  41. Figure 2.09. Inflation abroadTCW-weighted, annual percentage change TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners. Sources: National sources and the Riksbank

  42. Figure 2.10. Interest rate abroadTCW-weighted, per cent, quarterly averages TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners. Sources: National sources and the Riksbank

  43. Figure 2.11. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  44. Figure 2.12. CPIAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  45. Figure 2.13. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  46. Figure 2.14. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  47. Figure 2.15. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  48. Figure 2.16. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  49. Figure 2.17. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  50. Figure 2.18. Hours gapPer cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

More Related