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  1. Turkey A National Critical Intelligence Estimate Presented by Section 31 For Approval by Professor R. Nichols

  2. Political Kristell Havens Kristina Anderson Intelligence/Cyber Security Brendan Kinchla Naveen Kumar Jeff Sperry Section 31 Economic Darcy Pitkin Kyle Leisner Military Ekow Ocran Enzi Jauregui Jay Kippen, Team Leader Dan Routier, Executive Officer

  3. Agenda • Executive Summary • State Snapshot • Political • Economic • Military • Intelligence • Key Judgments • Possible outcomes

  4. Useful Definitions • Political Islam • The inclusion of Islam into the secular political arena • Conservative Democracy • In Turkey conservative democracy is liberalism by promoting social conservativeness • Theocracy • A government ruled by religious virtues • Secular • Not bound by any religion • Secularism • A noted separation between government and religion, common in Turkish politics.


  6. Executive Summary Critical Intentions •Based on analysis of available data points, it is believed: •Intent of the AKP party with assistance from the Muslim Brotherhood is to quietly institute various non-secular religious political reforms; • To consolidate and maintain control of the government •via use of subversive political tactics; •clear intentions of creating an extremist religious Muslim nation • that is contrary to western principles

  7. Executive Summary Capabilities AKP capabilities to complete their intentions • Infiltration of key military and government branches • Control of Military • Military Chief of Staff is a member of AKP and considered principal figure for carrying out coup attempts • Control of Legislature • Controls the military through legislation, i.e. military reforms, budget etc... • Control Judicial branch • Placement of AKP friendly staff • Courts are not open to public scrutiny- ripe with corruption

  8. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Turkey is at a crossroads in their secular ideology and political identity, turning either direction will send the country and people towards an uncertain future • Right the country will fall into a Muslim extremist state thereby isolating itself from western influence, but at a price • Left involves the military stepping in to protect the secular ideology with prospects of a civl war or military control for an extended period • Straight allows the Muslim Brotherhood to continue solidifying their march towards an extremist state and ruling out any further chances for normalcy • Understanding the consequences of this international crisis is of major importance, not only in terms of strategic interests for United States but the whole world • This report will focus on the implications if Turkey becomes a Muslim radicalized nation-state similar to Iran

  9. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Key areas for analysis • Identification of strategic important areas for the United States, and their relevance • Analysis of hypothetical predictions and their outcomes • Identification of potential key indicators • Political • Economic • Intelligence • Military • Development and analysis of alternate outcomes based on analysis of critical data points and assumed predictions

  10. Executive Summary U.S. Interests Areas of strategic importance for the United States in relation to Turkey's geopolitical situation • Energy Security • Turkey's strategic location provides a means for regional distribution of oil /gas originating in the Middle East and Caspian basin through a series of pipelines traversing Turkish territory • Regional stabilization efforts • With Turkey's standing in the Muslim world the US is able to use Turkey as an intermediary in relations with other regional Muslim nations concerning Israel, Syria, Jordan, and to an extent Iran • Provides a unique example to combat fundamentalist through the use of Democracy and secular activities

  11. Executive Summary U.S. Interests Continued Areas of strategic importance for the United States in relation to Turkey's geopolitical situation • Military Cooperation • NATO- Turkish involvement provides the west a unique opportunity to conduct regional stabilization efforts in relation to former Soviet bloc Muslim nations • Missile defense systems- Turkey's strategic location provides an ideal location for defending against missile launches from Iran • War on Terror- with Turkey's assistance several key regional states supported efforts to combat terrorism

  12. Executive Summary Predictions PREDICTIONS IF TURKEY RADICALIZES • Political • Turkey Loses Bid to join EU • Turkey Loses NATO Membership • Turkey Aligned Politically with Iran • (Cyprus occupation) • Economic • Turkey’s Economy will Decline/Collapse • Military • Military Coup Probable • Imzir & Incirlik Air Bases and Airspace Permissions Revoked • (Cyprus occupation) • Intelligence/Cyber Security • Turkey will increase intel relationship with Iran while decreasing relationship with US/Israel • Loss of SIGINT and HUMINT Resources and Placement

  13. Executive Summary Key Indicators • Political • Government instituting unpopular Islamic reforms contrary to Turkey's secular ideology • Reinstated Hatip religious schools • Started sponsoring official Quran courses • Started teaching Sunni Islam in schools • Dramatically Increased the number of mosques • The secular population is now moving away from viewing the government in a favorable way • Freedom of press is constrained • The government established controls to limit news media • No longer can Turkish people express opposition to government • Key government players are from a pro-Islamic background with strong ties to the Muslim Brotherhood • Increased the Directorate of Religious affairs budget from 553T to over 2.7Q in first 4 years of rule

  14. Executive Summary Key Indicators Continued • Economic • Decline in economic growth, measured from pre- Erdoğan 1990 to present 2013 • Private sector has increased borrowing, in March of 2013 Turkeys private sector foreign debt was 202 million, up from 138.5 the previous month, total debt currently 38.5 billion • Suspected increase of the Hawalas system cannot be predicted due to the nature of the system, almost no records are kept, it is noted that an increase in Hawala usage occurs during time of conflict and political discord • Istanbul stock market decreased by 10% and Interest rates are up 50%

  15. Executive Summary Key Indicators Continued Economic • Government influence in the private sector • President Erdoğan accusing Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) of terrorism • Turkey has a history of prosecuting companies for suspected anti-government activities • Possible government sanctions or loss of business • KOC represents 6% of total economic output • Have lost 17% of business since the riots

  16. Executive Summary Key Indicators Continued • Military • Infiltration of pro-Islamic military officers into the current ranks • Current ruling party instituted military reforms designed to limit their power in the political arena in order to curb coup attempts • Through political action, redefined the military's responsibilities to strictly protect the country from outside threats • Persecution of key military officers who would be in the position to direct a coup • Demonstrations over US military bases, seeking expulsion from Turkey • Continued decrease in military budget

  17. Executive Summary Key Indicators Continued • Intelligence • Recently developed intelligence sharing capabilities with Iran in order to combat Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) terrorism • Provided US equipment to Iran • Turkeys intelligence relationship with the US has cooled since 2004 • Mainly due to perceived US support for the Kurdish PKK party

  18. STATE SNAPSHOT Including a Brief History

  19. State Snapshot • Geographical strategic location for controlling Turkish straits • Slightly larger than the state of Texas • 7200 km of coastline • Many natural resources • Coal • Iron • Copper • Mercury • Ethnic groups • Turkish 70-75% • Kurdish 18% • Other 7-12% • Economic resources • Agricultural Outputs • Tobacco • Cotton • Grain • Olives • Language-Turkish • Religions • Muslim-99.8% • Mostly Sunni • Other-.02% • Population 80 Million • 81 Provinces

  20. State Snapshot Facts • Turkey Estimated Population- 80 million • Percent of total population Muslim- 99.0 (~79 million) • Capital: Ankara • Government Type: Republic parliamentary democracy with a free market economy • Suffrage: 18 years of age • Last elections were held during June, 2011 • Recently, presidential elections were amended to reflect a direct election process • Next elections will be held June 2015 • Political Parties (at least 61) • Administrative Divisions: 81 Provinces • Independence: 29 October 1923 • Marked by a national holiday every October 29 • Constitution Ratified on 7 November 1982 • Amendment passed by referendum October 21, 2007

  21. Illustration of Turkey’s Strategic Importance to Middle Eastern Affairs Google Earth (Cartographer). (2013). Middle east map [Topographic map]. Retrieved from https://maps.google.com/maps?q=middle+east+map&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x157ec465 8142ffb7:0xa5b8320215ea72c,Middle+East&gl=us&ei=bEDjUcbaG87j4AOmmYDADA&ved=0CCwQ8gEwAA

  22. Key judgments and possible outcomes

  23. Prediction One Key judgment and possible outcome • Turkey gains Economic Union (EU) membership and becomes radicalized • Analyzing all data points • Political • Economic • Military • Intelligence • Has NO effect on western relations

  24. Prediction Two Key judgment and possible outcome • Turkey fails to gain EU status • Erdogan's 2002 promise to attain EU memberships is a key component to AKP's popularity, which if their bid fails would almost certainly spell defeat for his non-secular state and the AKP party

  25. Prediction Three Key judgment and possible outcome • Continued pro-islamic government intervention through unpopular reforms resulting in a military coup similar to the 1960 one • Junior grade officers stage the coup without approval or knowledge from higher military leadership • Unique as it applies to today's situation • AKP has infiltrated key military command structures • Has also infiltrated elements of junior grade officers • Consolidated gains from Political, Legislative, and Judicial branches

  26. POLITICAL Presented by, Kristell Havens and Kristina Anderson Agenda • Summary • Key Political Indicators • Predictions • What If Scenario • Supporting History • Political Organization • Consequences

  27. Political Summary •Government type: republic parliamentary democracy with a free market economy •Turkey’s geographical location allows them to act as the bridge between Europe and the Middle East •This position has helped Prime Minister Erdoğan build up Turkey’s political influence and economy over the last decade

  28. Political Summary Continued •The political and societal upheavals in recent times within this region have left Turkey largely unscathed • Electoral democracy- allows for flexibility and gives the people of Turkey a voice in their government. •Recent protests and military actions within the state have opened up international discourse on the realities of the political situation in Turkey •Corruption, cronyism, lack of transparency and accountability •Creeping authoritarian actions •Fundamentalist restrictions on democracy

  29. Political Summary Continued •The Syrian refugee influx and border violence is spilling over into Turkish soil, and they are largely ill-equipped to handle the crippling effects •Turkey still acts as an occupying force in Northern Cyprus, with no plans to yield on their position •They are now fighting for claims to newly discovered oil reserves on the southern half of the island

  30. Key Indicators of Political Discourse •Prime Minister Erdoğan is instituting reforms that are considered unpopular with secular populations •Secular population is moving away from viewing the government in a favorable light •Pro-Islamic reforms have resulted in Erdoğan losing his majority mandate •Freedom of the press is constrained •Influence of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) inside of Turkey has grown •The Justice and Development Party (AKP) is viewed with suspicion by some segments of the electorate, since they have strong Islamic ties, and their policy output tends to lean toward Islamic based ideals.

  31. Key Indicators of Political Discourse Continued • Erdoğan is pushing for international legislation that would make it illegal to affront the sensitivities of Muslims • Twitter, Facebook, or any other social media device has been labeled a societal risk • The government is concerned that it will compromise Islamic values- but more than that it will encourage protest as it did in the Arab Spring • "There is a problem called Twitter right now and you can find every kind of lie there, The thing that is called social media is the biggest trouble for society right now."-Erdoğan • Erdoğan is attempting to take awayfreedoms that democracy has brought, even making it illegal to buy alcohol at college campuses

  32. Key Indicators of Political Discourse Continued • Turkey is currently the #1 jailer of journalists in the world • December 2012, 49 journalists were imprisoned, the next closest country was Iran with 45 • Anti-state and Terrorism charges were brought against the journalists • Erdoğan has charged at least 5 journalists with defamation suits • Police are the biggest threat, they are targeting the press, especially during the protests • Resulting in equipment loss, physical threats, raids, assaults, imprisonment, and obstruction • Police do not fear being held accountable • Government calls some journalists “terrorists”

  33. Indicators of Islamic Political Subversion Tactics • In addition to democratic reforms the AKP party instituted Islamic reforms meant to address an apparent lack of Islamic values, reforms such as • 85,000 Mosques to date or 1 for every 300 people • 90,000 Imams • Reinstated Imam-Hatip religious schools • New 4000 government sponsored official Quran courses • Sunni Islam teachings in school • Spending on the Turkish Directorate of Religious affairs has risen dramatically • 2002 Budget was 553 Trillion, has risen to 2.7 Quadrillion in just 4 years of AKP rule*

  34. Political Predictions • If Turkey becomes radicalized with Muslim ideology: • The extremist elements in power are met with a counter movement, and civil violence/war breaks out in the country • The extremist elements in power sever ties with Western democracies • Resulting in loss of European Union (EU) bid • NATO membership may be jeopardized • Turkey may turn to political alignment with Iran, which would impact US relationship • Invasion of neighboring countries, like Cyprus in order to gain control of newly discovered oil • This would lead to strained diplomatic relations for the United States with countries in the region • Israel is already on course to align with Cyprus- this will lead to better strategic positioning for Israel • This will also create tensions and increase the likelihood for conflict

  35. Political What-if Scenario What if extremist elements were to take over Turkey? • The fragile relationship between Cyprus and Turkey would be shattered • Ethnic cleavages would encourage internal dispute • Increased violence at borders • Civil war • The drive for natural resources would push extremist-Turkey to take control of Cyprus • Turkey may experience a breakdown in relations between EU and NATO • Increased tensions throughout the region and within Turkey • Loss of strategic access point for US and NATO

  36. Erdoğan Approval Rating Faltering, Indicator of Political Discontent • Pew Research Poll shows that Erdoğan is losing favor among the more secular groups of people • 2011- after sweeping victories for the AKP- confidence in Erdoğan was very high • 2013- his policies, are falling out of favor with the secular population • Secular/religious divide • It should be noted that the popularity poll was done prior to the protests, and military action currently plaguing the country. • Pew Research also found that Erdoğan is losing favor with people living in Istanbul • Urban/rural divide • His favorability is at risk- especially with the younger generation of Turks

  37. Erdoğan Approval RatingLosing Favor Confidence 2011 Losing Popularity Pew Research, Global Attitudes Project: Erdogan more popular among devout muslims. (2013). Retrieved from http://www.pewresearch.org/files/2013/06/6-4-2013-4-49-20- PM.png Pew Research Center. (2011, June 7). On eve of elections, a more upbeat mood in turkey. Retrieved July 8, 2013, from Pew Research Global Attitudes Project: http://www.pewglobal.org/2011/06/07/on-eve-of-elections-a-more-upbeat-mood-in-turkey/

  38. The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey • Islam developed not only as a religious movement but as a political force • The Quran provides practitioners with the “Straight Path” or Sharia, Islamic Law • 1924-1926 Sharia Law system was officially abolished in Turkey • “Turkification of Islam” • Progressive reforms to Islam in order to mold the religion to fit the national Turkish identity • Translate Quran to Turkish rather than Arabic • Prayers were spoken in Turkish • Turkey has dense networks of Sufi Islamists • Philosophically based • Spread through storytellers, poets, philosophers

  39. The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey Continued • The Turkish middle class movements have promoted Islamic identity through new ‘identity spaces’ •Internet, social media, journals, news media and education • Kemalism was established to secularize the state and create a feeling of nationalism • Backlash of movement has been the failure (due to military) to incorporate civil society and democracy • State is effectively more important than the citizenry • In order to connect with the Islamic foundations of the country, Turkey officially established “Turkish-Islamic synthesis" • This increased the budget for the Directorate of Religious Affairs, and began promoting religious activity

  40. Turkey's Geopolitical Relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) • 1948- NATO was established as a defense to growing Soviet threat after the WWII • 1952- Turkey joined alliance seeking to strengthen its defense policy • Geopolitical significance made Turkey an important regional power • Turkey carried out duties as a member of NATO through the Cold War and the Korean War • Since the 1980’s, Turkey has been involved in a number of defense issues • Terrorist organization Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) • Imia/Kardak Crisis on the Aegean Sea • Internal conflicts in the Balkans • Gulf War

  41. Turkey's Geopolitical Relationship with NATO continued • Later half of 1990’s- Turkey shifted its national security policy into a more restrained civilian policy • Following the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center- Turkey shared a common focus on terrorism • Tensions rose in the USA when the Turkish Parliament refused to send Turkish troops to Iraq in 2003 creating conflict within NATO • Turkey’s shifting focus to the Middle East • Effectively pushed their EU ally aside • jeopardizing membership • NATO is concerned • New Strategic Concept (2010) • Pro-Islamic Justice and Development (AKP)

  42. Turkey's Geopolitical Relationship with NATO continued • Turkey believes the integration of all Western Balkan countries in Euro-Atlantic structures is key to lasting peace and stability in the region • In terms of military, Turkey is going to be a serious problem for NATO if extremists come to power • This will have consequences for NATO • Without use of the Turkish straits there will be issues with Russia and Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia

  43. Key Turkish Political Figures Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Prime Minister • Raised in a devout Muslim family • Mayor of Istanbul 1994-1998 • Chairman of the AKP • Served a prison term for reciting religious poems during a public address • Commenced EU membership negotiations during his tenure • Instituted many reforms • Brought the countries inflation under control

  44. Key Political Figures Abdullah Gül President • Member of the Welfare Party • Founding member of the AKP Party • 1991: Elected to Parliament • 2002-2003: Served as Prime Minister • 2003-2007: Served as Foreign Minister

  45. President Abdullah Gül • 2007 - Voters back plan to have presidents elected by, popular vote rather than Parliament • Nominated presidential candidate in 2007 by, Prime Minister Erdoğan • May 2007 - Gül’s first bid for presidency was blocked by Constitutional Court over his secular views and past membership in the Welfare Party. • August 2007 - Gül was elected as the 11th President, after the AKP party won control of the Parliament • Gül was the first openly devout Muslim President in modern Turkish history

  46. Justice and Development Party (AKP) • Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi • Developed out of the Welfare Party by, Abdullah Gül and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in 1997 • They did not want their party to be solely based on Islam- they wanted to focus on democratic ideals • Approach appealed to a much wider audience • Fairly new to the political game in 2002, the party was able to gain an absolute majority in the Parliament by taking advantage of the economic crisis of 1999-2001 • The party is viewed with suspicion by some segments of the electorate, since they have strong Islamic ties, and their policy output tends to lean toward Islamic based ideals. 

  47. Justice and Development Party (AKP) • AKP has clear Islamic roots • Party founded by Erdoğan • Came to power in 2002 • The main election promise was to gain EU status • Only party in Turkish history to win 3 elections • Has been considered moderate pro-Western party • Favored a moderate approach to religious tolerance • In recent times the party has evolved to become more steeped in Islamic traditions • Embraces Capitalism • Party's agenda is conservative capitalism • Their approach is often called Political Islam

  48. AKP Political Goals • To accomplish social reforms the AKPin 2002 established two primary goals* • Instituted democratic social reforms that were more in line with EU standards which appealed to the Turkish underclass • With these democratic reforms EU membership appeared more likely which also earned Erdogan support from • Business • Academic • Middle Class • In addition, other reforms were instituted in line with EU memberships guidelines • Reform of the Judicial system • Civil relations to the military • Human rights

  49. AKP Consolidating Power • To consolidate these political gains the AKP leaders established policies of reform that appealed to the masses such as: • Social reforms • Creating a national agreement to address • Health care • Housing • Education • Increased improvised infrastructure • Minority rights • Refused to challenge secularism • Accepted secularism and decided to work with the secularist • Created reforms to address the failing economy

  50. AKP Consolidating Power continued • The party has been at odds with the military and Judicial branch over secularism • Won the popular vote in 2011 by almost ½ and its 3rd consecutive election • The party also consolidated its authority over the military • Many senior military staffers resigned or retired early • Some active duty generals were jailed for plotting against the government • Has no problems in relations with the US