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Small Gain Delay:

Temporal Discounting of Real vs Hypothetical Gains and Losses David J. Hardisty, Elke U. Weber, & Galen Treuer Stanford University & Columbia University. Abstract. Sample Stimuli. Medium magnitude:.

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Small Gain Delay:

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  1. Temporal Discounting of Real vsHypothetical Gains and LossesDavid J. Hardisty, Elke U. Weber, & Galen TreuerStanford University & Columbia University Abstract Sample Stimuli Medium magnitude: While the majority of research on intertemporal choice has examined hypothetical financial gains, many real-world outcomes of interest (such as credit card debt or drug use) involve real future losses. Using both within and between subject designs, we compared discount rates for real and hypothetical gains and losses, in internet and student populations. Other than a main effect of the web sample showing higher discount rates, results indicate that real and hypothetical outcomes show similar discount rates, and very similar effects of framing (including sign, magnitude, direction, and their interactions). Furthermore, both real and hypothetical scenarios are correlated with real world outcomes of interest, including savings and tobacco use. • Small Gain Delay: • Medium Loss Accelerate: Methods • 2 samples: 30 MTurk participants and 30 Columbia University undergrads • 2 task versions: hypothetical and consequential • In the consequential task, two choices (one gain and one loss) were randomly selected and paid out • Amounts ranged from $4.90 to $100.10 • The undergrad sample completed both the hypothetical and consequential tasks, and the MTurk sample completed only the hypothetical task • The following were manipulated within subjects:- Sign (gain vs loss)- Direction (delay vs accelerate)- Magnitude (small vs medium) • 28 trials per condition, for a total of 224 in the task • For ease of comparison and interpretation, choices were converted into discount rates using the continuously compounded exponential formula V=Ae-kD, such that a k of .10 indicates a 10% discount rate Spearman correlations: Results Small magnitude: Discussion • Real and hypothetical, online and student samples all showed classic descriptive anomalies, including the sign effect, direction X sign effect, and magnitude X sign effect • The online hypothetical sample showed a main effect of higher discount rates • Future research can safely continue to employ hypothetical outcomes Contact: dhardisty@stanford.edu, http://davidhardisty.info Support: NSF grants SES-0820496 and SES-1024599

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